84: Peruvian Bull ON: Bitcoin Solves the Triffin Dilemma, Dollar Milkshake, and Cantillon Effects

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Peruvian Bull is a macro analyst, author of Dollar End Game, and creator focused on the long-term consequences of fiat monetary policy and Bitcoin's role in the global economy.

In this episode, you're going to learn how the U.S. dollar became the dominant global reserve currency and why that system is now under strain, what the Triffin dilemma is and how it forces the U.S. to make impossible economic trade-offs, why central banks are trapped in a cycle of endless debt and money printing, what caused the post-2020 inflation spike and why it's different from 2008, and how Bitcoin fits into this system as a neutral, non-sovereign monetary asset with potential game-theoretic consequences at a global level.

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction

[00:38] Why exponential debt systems always break

[03:01] The origins of the global dollar system

[04:18] The Triffin dilemma explained

[05:47] France calls the U.S. bluff on gold

[07:30] Why reserve currencies must become net importers

[09:12] Why capital flows toward higher-yield currencies

[10:36] The policy trilemma explained

[12:08] Global synchronized monetary policy

[14:27] Brent Johnson’s dollar milkshake theory

[15:36] How foreign selling triggers U.S. stock crashes

[17:32] Why the Fed always steps in to rescue markets

[18:52] Why inflation isn’t a one-time problem

[20:22] How the Fed evolved into a power center

[22:15] Why QE flows into financial assets, not groceries

[25:00] When reserves become real, spendable money

[26:48] How deficits + QE = money printing

[28:13] How 2% inflation quietly robs your savings

[29:46] The Fed balance sheet now drives markets

[31:22] Cantillon effects and unfair gains

[32:23] Recession avoidance creates bigger problems

[34:07] Zombie companies and bad capital allocation

[35:39] The exponential nature of debt and money

[36:50] Bitcoin as a solution to fiat collapse

[38:28] Game theory and Bitcoin nation state adoption

[40:36] The race to accumulate Bitcoin

[42:05] Bitcoin vs global capital markets

[43:27] Why Satoshis could become expensive

[44:56] Why Bitcoin’s simplicity is a feature

[46:35] Only universal upgrades succeed in Bitcoin

[47:31] Exponential debt means exponential inflation

Resources Mentioned:

The Dollar Endgame by Peruvian Bull | Book

Triffin Dilemma Concept by Robert Triffin | Framework

Dollar Milkshake Theory by Brent Johnson | Website

Creature from Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin | Book

ShadowStats – Alternative Inflation Data | Statistics

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast | Spotify or Apple

Get Peruvian Bull’s latest analysis, charts, and longform commentary on his Substack.

Find more from Scott:

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