Episode 185 - Post 2025 Federal Election Wrap

The Conditional Release Program

MORE UNINTENTIONALLY FUNNY AI SLOP SHOWNOTES. Peter Hoistead? Thanks Gemini.

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The Conditional Release Program - Episode 185: Federal Election 2025 Post-Special

Hosts: Joel Hill & Jack the Insider (Peter Hoistead)

Overall Theme: A deep dive into the results and implications of the 2025 Australian Federal Election, focusing on Labor's historic victory, the Coalition's catastrophic loss, and the performance of minor parties and independents.

Key Segments & Talking Points:

(Part 1 - Approximate Timestamps based on original transcript, subject to adjustment)

• [00:00:00 - 00:01:23] Introduction & Election Overview
• Joel laments being banned from betting on the election, particularly Labor's strong odds.
• Jack notes Joel would have won significantly, especially on Labor at $2.60.
• Historic Labor Win: Anthony "Albo" Albanese leads Labor to a significant victory.
• Libs sent into an "existential crisis."
• Albo is the first PM to be re-elected since John Howard in 2004.
• Largest Labor victory on a two-party preferred basis since John Curtin in 1943 (votes still being counted).
• Crucial Stat: The Albanese government is the only first-term government to have a swing towards it in Australian political history.
• [00:01:23 - 00:03:38] Significance of the Swing to Labor
• Previous first-term governments (Howard '98, Hawke '84, Fraser '77, Whitlam '74, Menzies) all had swings against them when seeking a second term.
• Albo's government achieved an approximate 4% swing towards it (votes still being counted).
• Discussion points: Where it went right for Labor, and wrong for the Coalition, Greens, and Teals.
• Far-right "Cookers" performed terribly. Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FONY) might see minor representation.
• [00:03:38 - 00:05:11] Patreon & Sponsor Shout-outs
• Reminder to support the podcast on Patreon: www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram (for as little as $5/month).
• CB Co. Beer: Praised for their IPA and new Hazy XPA. Competition to win $100,000. Use code CRP10 for 10% off at cbco.beer.
• [00:05:11 - 00:08:52] Polling Inaccuracies & Liberal Optimism
• Reiteration of the ~4% swing to Labor.
• Comparison of final poll predictions vs. actual results:
• Freshwater: Labor 51.5% (was Liberal pollster, told Libs they were close).
• Newspoll: 52.5% (Labor used their private polling).
• Essential: 53.5%.
• YouGov: 52.2% - 52.9%.
• Polling companies significantly underestimated Labor's vote, especially those advising the Coalition.
• The misplaced optimism at Liberal Party HQ on election night.
• [00:08:52 - 00:16:00] Specific Seat Results & Labor Gains
• Gilmore (NSW South Coast): Fiona Phillips (Labor) won 55-45 (3-4% swing to her), despite Andrew Constance (Liberal) being the favourite.
• Bennelong (Howard's old seat): Jeremy Laxail (Labor) won 59-41 against Scott Young (problematic Liberal candidate), a 10% swing to Labor.
• Parramatta: Andrew Charlton (Labor) won 62-38 (was 53.47 in 2022).
• Aston (Victoria): Labor won in a historic by-election previously, now a 4% swing to the Labor candidate, winning 53-47.
• Boothby (SA): Louise Miller-Frost (Labor) achieved an 8% swing, holding the seat 61-39.
• Tangney (WA): Sam Lim (Labor, ex-cop & dolphin trainer) secured a 3% swing, now 56-44. Large Bhutanese diaspora noted.
• Leichhardt (FNQ): Labor's Matt Smith won 57-43 after Warren Entsch (LNP) retired (10% swing).
• Hunter (NSW): Dan Repiccioli (Labor) re-elected with 44% primary vote (5% swing on primary). Fended off Nats and One Nation (Stuart Bonds' inflated vote claims by "One Australia" on X).
• [00:16:00 - 00:18:49] Diversifying Parliament & Women in Politics
• Praise for non-lawyer backgrounds in Parliament (e.g., Dan Repiccioli, Sam Lim).
• Critique of the typical lawyer/staffer/union pathway.
• Labor's success in diversifying candidate backgrounds and increasing female representation.
• Liberals struggling with female representation despite some efforts. Discussion of potential quotas in the Liberal party and the backlash it would cause.
• Margaret Thatcher quote: "If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman."
• [00:18:49 - 00:27:26] The Teals: Mixed Results & Challenges
• Initial appearance of a Teal "romp" on election night.
• Bradfield (NSW North Shore): Teal Nicolette Boele (Burle/Bola) behind Liberal Giselle Kaptarian by 178 votes (updated during recording).
• Goldstein (VIC): Tim Wilson (Liberal) leading Zoe Daniel (Teal) by 925 votes. Wilson is likely back. Joel comments on Wilson's IPA association vs. his "gay, wet, mediocre, progressive side." Jack notes Wilson often highlights his sexuality.
• Jim Chalmers' quip about Tim Wilson: "Popular for all those who haven't met him."
• Kooyong (VIC): Monique Ryan (Teal) leading by 1002 votes (97,000 counted, ~8,000 postals to go). Redistribution added parts of Toorak, making it harder for Ryan.
• Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer: "Trust fund renter" controversy, owns multiple properties, London bolthole.
• Corflute wars in Kooyong: Hamer campaign's excessive use of A-frames, obstructing walkways, went to Supreme Court over council limits. Jack doubts the impact of corflutes.
• [00:27:26 - 00:31:28] Why Did the Teals Go Backwards?
• Liberal party invested heavily in Kooyong and Goldstein.
• Voters potentially preferring a local member who is a Minister or part of the government.
• Redistribution impact in Kooyong (addition of Toorak).
• Zali Steggall's success in Warringah partly due to "fruitcake" Liberal opponents like Katherine Deves.
• [00:31:28 - 00:40:37] The Greens: Significant Losses
• Lost all lower house seats. Adam Bandt (leader) gone from Melbourne.
• Lost Brisbane (Max Chandler Mather) and Griffith back to Labor.
• Ryan (South Brisbane): Likely Labor win in a three-way contest.
• Greens will have no lower house representation.
• Key Reason: Housing policy standoff. Accused of holding up Labor's housing bill for over a year (affecting funding for domestic violence victims, homeless), pursuing "perfection" over compromise.
• [00:40:37 - 00:49:57] Deep Dive: Housing Policy Challenges
• A major challenge for the Albanese government. Not an easy fix.
• Supply-side changes could devalue existing homes or slow growth, angering homeowners.
• Joel’s view: Subsidized housing (rent-to-own, means-tested) wouldn't touch the high-end market.
• Negative gearing: Not a quick fix; removing it overnight unlikely to change much; issue is supply.
• Homeowner expectations of property value growth.
• Construction industry at full tilt; skills shortages.
• CFMEU's role in skilled migration for construction.
• Free TAFE importance for reskilling/upskilling.
• Linton Besser (Media Watch) criticism of Labor "building" houses when they reconditioned unlivable ones – Joel argues this still increases supply.
• [00:49:57 - 00:59:16] Deep Dive: Childcare Policy & Global Economic Headwinds
• Childcare another area for government focus.
• Labor's childcare policy: Rebates for high earners (e.g., $325k combined income).
• High cost of childcare; need for better pay for childcare workers (Labor delivered a pay spike).
• Ownership of childcare centers (Peter Dutton reference) and profit-making. Call for more public childcare.
• Uncertain global economic times, Trump tariffs.
• Port of Los Angeles imports down by one-third.
• US Q1 economy shrank 0.3%; recession likely.
• Japan, China, South Korea meeting to discuss tariff responses; hold significant US debt. Japanese warning to US re: trade negotiations.
• [00:59:16 - 01:07:13] What Went Wrong for the Coalition? Answer: Everything.
• Gas Price Fixing Policy: Cobbled together, no consultation with industry (unlike Rudd's mining tax failure), potentially unconstitutional (taxing for benefit of some states over others).
• Work From Home Policy Disaster:
• Conceived by Jane Hume and Peter Dutton, no Shadow Cabinet consultation.
• Initial messaging: All Commonwealth public servants, then just Canberra.
• Jane Hume's media run: Claimed all WFH is 20% less productive, citing a study.
• Implied WFH employees are "bludgers," alienating a vast number of voters (including partners of tradies).
• Labor capitalized on this after door-knocking feedback. Policy eventually walked back.
• Defence Policy: Released in the last week, vague promise to spend 3% of GDP, no specifics on acquisitions. Andrew Hastie (Shadow Defence) reportedly wants out of the portfolio.
• Fuel Excise Policy: Halving fuel excise for a year. Took a week for Dutton to do a photo-op at a service station. Fuel prices had already dropped.
• Melbourne Airport Rail Link Funding: Announced at a winery.
• Vehicle Emissions Policy: Clarifications issued within 48 hours.
• Generally a shambolic campaign, studied for years to come.
• [01:07:13 - 01:08:55] The Nationals & Nuclear Policy Fallout
• Nats trying to spin a better result than Libs, but didn't win Calare (Andrew Gee back as Indy).
• Nuclear Policy: Coalition embarrassed to discuss it. Nats insist on keeping it.
• Policy originated as a way for Libs to get Nats to support Net Zero by 2050.
• Massive costs and timelines: Hinkley Point C (UK) example – 65 billion pounds, years of delays. US Georgia plant similar.
• Legislative hurdles: Repealing Howard-era ban, state-level bans (even LNP QLD Premier Chris O'Fooley against it).
• State-funded, "socialist" approach due to lack of private investment.
• [01:08:55 - 01:15:49] Coalition Campaign Failures & Spokespeople
• Debate on government vs. private industry running power.
• Lack of effective Coalition spokespeople: Susan Ley sidelined, Jane Hume promoted. Angus Taylor perceived as lazy.
• Angus Taylor's past water license scandal ("Australia's Watergate," Cayman Islands structure).
• [01:15:49 - 01:28:03] Demographics: A Tide Against the Liberals
• Women: Voted ~58-42 for Labor (two-party preferred), worse than under Morrison. Libs failed to address issues like climate, domestic violence.
• Language Other Than English at Home (LOTE): 60% backed Labor (Redbridge polling, Cos Samaras). Indian and Chinese diaspora significant, impacting Deakin and Menzies (Keith Wallahan, a moderate, lost Menzies).
• Gen Z & Millennials (18-45): Now outnumber Baby Boomers (60+), voted 60-40 Labor (TPP).
• Preferencing: Labor "gamed the system well"; Liberals' deal with One Nation backfired in messaging to urban areas.
• Strategy Failure: Liberals walked away from "heartland" Teal-lost seats, wrongly believing voters were wrong. Dutton's 2023 claim of Libs being "party of regional Australia" failed. No connection or network in targeted outer-suburban/regional seats.
• Female Pre-selection: Aspiration of 50% in 2019, achieved 34% in 2025. "Male, white, middle-class, mediocre."
• Sarah Henderson Example: Lost Corangamite in 2019, returned via Senate vacancy. Criticized as a "waste of space," arrogant for seeking re-entry.
• Both parties have taken safe seats for granted (factional gifts), but Labor learning. Example: Batman (now Cooper, Jed Carney) won back from Greens after better candidate selection.
• [01:28:03 - 01:36:42] Fond Farewells: Election Casualties
• Peter Dutton: Lost his seat of Dickson (held 20+ years), got "smashed." Likely preferred losing seat to facing party room fallout. Gracious concession speech. Australia's strong electoral process praised (democracy sausage, volunteers, AEC, peaceful concession).
• Michael Sukkar (Deakin, VIC): "Unpleasant piece of work."
• Recount of February incident: Sukkar, at Dutton's prompting, used a point of order to cut off Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus (Jewish) during an emotional speech about anti-Semitism and his family's Holocaust connection (Shiloh story). Dreyfus called Sukkar "disgusting." Sukkar moved "that the member no longer be heard." Widely condemned.
• Gerard Rennick (QLD Senator): Anti-COVID vaccine, spread misinformation (diabetes, dementia links). Jack recounts being attacked by Rennick's "poison monkeys" on X after writing about it. Rennick gone, likely self-funded much of his campaign.

(Part 2 - Timestamps restart from 00:00:00 but are a continuation, add ~1 hour 36 mins 50 secs to these for continuous flow)

• [01:36:50 - 01:44:07] The Fractured Hard Right ("Cookers") - Dismal Performance
• Generally went nowhere electorally.
• UAP (United Australia Party) / Trumpeter Patriots (John Ruddock): 2.38% in NSW Senate (down from UAP's 3.2% in 2022). Less money spent than previous Clive Palmer campaigns.
• Libertarian Democrats (Lib Dems): 1.99% in NSW Senate. Controversial name didn't help. Alliance with H.A.R.T (formerly IMOP, Michael O'Neill) and Gerard Rennick's People First Party.
• Monica Smit's calls to "unite" contrasted with these groups already forming alliances without her.
• These three parties combined got less than 2% in NSW. Lib Dems <1.5% nationally outside NSW.
• Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FON): 5.8% in NSW Senate (up 2 points from 2022). "Teeny Weeny" might get up in QLD, maybe one in WA, but not enough in NSW.
• Family First: 1.67%.
• Cannibalizing each other's fractional votes; no real electoral success. "Cooked bullshit" validated briefly during pandemic but no longer.
• [01:44:07 - 01:55:30] Cooker Delusions & Financial Realities
• Rodney Culleton (Great Australia Party, WA): 0.97% (down from 1.05% in 2022, <1000 votes).
• Facebook comment: "Billy Bay" claiming Rennick's race is "close but unlikely" – met with derision (Rennick at ~10% of a quota).
• Cooker commenter "Brad": "It was never about forming government... Isn't it about getting candidates into the Senate to hold balance of power?" – Delusional.
• Funding Threshold: 4% of the vote in House or Senate to get election funding (deposit back). Most minor "freedom" parties will not reach this. Expensive failure for Ruddock, Culleton etc. (Clive Palmer won't care).
• Rodney Culleton on crutches, asking for help collecting corflutes. Still an undischarged bankrupt (potential issue with candidate registration stat dec).
• [01:55:30 - 02:09:00] More Cooker Antics & Failed Candidates
• Craig "Crackers" Kelly: Number 1 on Libertarian Senate ticket in NSW. Likely his political end.
• Cooker dreams of Senate balance of power via double dissolution are unfounded – even with a halved quota, they are nowhere near.
• Joel’s anecdote: Acquaintance supporting Gerard Rennick, suggesting some surface-level cut-through for People First Party, but election results prove otherwise. John Ruddock's efforts to make Lib Dems the "party of cookers" with Kelly as lead failed spectacularly.
• Dai Le (Fowler, NSW): Re-elected. Breaks Joel's heart ("total asshole"). Ben Fordham headline: Le claims Labor tried to buy votes. Her initial election attributed to Labor parachuting Kristina Keneally. Le now seen as a premier "cooker voice" as Rennick, Malcolm Roberts, and Alex Antic have limited national reach (Antic more on Telegram).
• Antic's influence has hurt SA Liberals (only 2 rural seats, nothing in Adelaide).
• Avi Yemini/Rukshan Fernando/Joel Jammal "freedom" telecast: Alex Antic was a guest, claiming good chances for some (unnamed) "cooker" candidates.
• [02:09:00 - 02:21:45] Mark "Mack" McFarlane & Cooker Live Stream
• Mark McFarlane (Mark Mack): The elder abuser (court finding: withheld medication, financial exploitation). Ran as an independent in Indi.
• Exposed by Tinfoil Tales, story picked up by mainstream media. Liberals changed preferences away from him.
• Freedom movement largely hasn't disowned him (Beck Freedom an outlier). McFarlane claims to be a "targeted individual."
• Received 1,268 votes (~1-2%), lost deposit.
• Cooker Live Stream (Avi Yemini, Rukshan Fernando, Joel Jammal):
• Monica Smit: Appeared, advocated for "freedom" people to join major parties (Liberals) to make change. Joel questions her understanding of politics and impact on Liberal party IQ/values.
• Drew Pavlou: Guest, "destroyed" by Avi Yemini in an edited clip ("leftist justifies Labor vote"). Drew actually voted Labor first, Greens last. Content designed for cooker base.
• Topher Field: Appeared.
• Morgan C. Jonas: Spent money on materials for Hunter (Dan Repiccioli's seat).
• AI-generated posters: "Burgers, Bowen and Blunders: The Dan Burglar - Put Labor Last." (Features Dan, Chris Bowen, and an Albo/Noam Chomsky hybrid).
• "Double Trouble" (Albo & Sid Allen): "More Debt, More Crime" – became a joke.
• On the live stream, 2 hours in, Jonas claimed Dutton would get a surprise victory/form minority government. (Jack notes he called it for Labor by 7:30 pm).
• Jonas claimed cooker vote around 16% in Victorian Senate (actual, including FON, is ~9.6%; without FON/Family First, much lower).
• [02:21:45 - 02:31:36] Russell Broadbent & Final Cooker Thoughts
• Russell Broadbent (Monash, VIC): Incumbent Liberal who lost pre-selection (to Mary Aldred, who got a 2.2% swing to her), ran as an independent.
• Broadbent got 10% as an Indy. Convinced he lost pre-selection for being a "cooker."
• "Fucked his career" by spending too much time on the internet (like Craig Kelly). Could have remained Member for Hughes.
• Broadbent: Father of the House, 25 years, never front bench. Time for fresh blood.
• Albo gave him a "free ad" during campaign, pitying his treatment.
• Appeared on Topher Field/Children's Health Defence Australia "election insights."
• Recent Broadbent Facebook post thanking pharmacists met with overwhelmingly negative comments from his new cooker base.
• Will have a good retirement on parliamentary super.
• [02:31:36 - END] Outro & Contact
• Subscribe, five-star review.
• Twitter: @JacktheInsider, @CrunchyMoses (with a K).
• Email: [email protected]
• Joke about joining the Liberal Party for renewal, Jack offers to cross-dress.