In The CMBS Trenches With Shlomo Chopp— Distress, Risk, And Finding Diamonds In The Rough The CRE Weekly Digest By LightBox podcast

34:20

David Auerbach, Chief Investment Officer at Hoya Capital Real Estate, joins hosts Manus Clancy and Martha Coacher for a deep dive into the misunderstood world of REITs. Often dismissed as “boring” or overlooked next to market movers like Apple, Nvidia, or even crypto, REITs are in fact powering much of the CRE ecosystem. Auerbach explains why misconceptions, like REITs being purely interest rate sensitive, miss the bigger picture of tenant contracts, long-term income streams, and transparency that other real estate investors should watch. The conversation spans REIT performance since the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle began in 2022 (underperforming the S&P by 50%), the surprising rebound in senior housing, the structural demand for rentals amid unaffordable home prices, and why data centers and towers now make up 25% of REIT indexes while office is just 4%. Auerbach also outlines the “graduating class” of REITs, from the Ivy-bound aristocrats to the troublemakers in the penalty box, and why active management matters for spotting warning signs. Listeners will hear why Berkshire Hathaway’s quiet moves into REITs matter and which market signals Auerbach watches (hint: the 10-year Treasury vs. Fed Funds). Packed with insights, data, and forward-looking signals, this episode is essential listening for anyone navigating CRE investing in a volatile market. 00:55 Understanding REITs in CRE 04:14Macro Shifts & REIT Resilience 07:44 Data Centers, Housing & Everyday Use 11:00 Spotting Opportunities in REIT Trends 16:45 Active Management Levers: Dividends & Leverage 28:26 Market Signals and Future Outlook Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Inflation Fails to Shake Equity Markets, Focus on Rate Cuts while CRE Holds Firm 31:18

8 days ago31:18

31:18

For the week ending August 15, The CRE Weekly Digest team digs into a tale of two markets. Hot wholesale inflation data dampened hopes for a jumbo September rate cut, but investors are still more focused on the prospect of cheaper money than the persistence of higher prices. Manus Clancy warns that U.S. equities are looking dangerously complacent – with historically high P/E ratios, low volatility, and frothy valuations – but sees a steadier hand in commercial real estate. LightBox transaction data shows $160B in 2025 deals to date, with July posting a 10% jump in deals over $50M, and a broad, sober buyer pool keeping valuations grounded. Dianne Crocker spotlights that 54% of office deals are trading at a discount, while multifamily remains the most in-demand listing type. The team also covers steep Pasadena office price cuts, San Francisco hotel distress, and the flow of plentiful (often private equity) capital into even riskier CRE projects. Plus: Disney-branded housing, relocation cash incentives from unexpected cities, and why insurance costs could be CRE’s biggest near-term headwind. 00:18 Market Complacency and Inflation Concerns 01:57 Frothy Equities vs. Steady CRE Markets 03:47 CRE Market Activity and Measured Optimism 09:08 LightBox Data Dive: July Transactions 17:46 Noteworthy Transactions and Market Trends 29:19 Upcoming Webinar and Disney “Storyliving” Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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CRE 2025 Forecast – Rate Cuts, Resilience, and the Rise of AI with Economist Ryan Severino 41:27

15 days ago41:27

41:27

We welcome back Ryan Severino, Managing Director, Chief Economist and Head of Research at BGO, for a sweeping conversation on the macroeconomic forces shaping commercial real estate in the back half of 2025. Fresh off being named one of PERE’s 100 most influential figures in global real estate, Ryan joins the LightBox team to unpack everything from the timing of potential rate cuts and labor market risks to the rise of AI-driven forecasting and why multifamily may be the ultimate outperformer in a high-tariff environment. With his signature contrarian perspective, Ryan explains why he correctly predicted fewer, later rate cuts this year and why he sees more downside risk in the labor market than runaway inflation. He unpacks how trade policy shifts and tariff shocks are distorting Fed strategy, creating "triple whammy" risks for consumers, and slowing – but not halting – CRE recovery. You'll also hear why his firm, BGO is doubling down on AI-powered forecasting, how Gen Z is reshaping retail demand, and why office might finally be turning a corner. From real-time data revisions to trillion-point predictive models, this episode is packed with timely insights on what's working, what’s wobbly, and what lies ahead for CRE. Don’t miss Ryan’s bold predictions and the one indicator he’s watching most closely. 01:29 Economic Predictions and Market Analysis 03:11 Impact of Recent Job Reports 06:08 Fed's Dual Mandate and Rate Cuts 17:52 Commercial Real Estate Market Sentiment 24:29 Sector-Specific Insights: Multifamily, Office, Industrial, and Retail 35:42 The Role of Technology in Forecasting Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Mixed Bag — Fed Holds Rates, Corporate Earnings Falter, but CRE Outlook Sentiment Rises 40:30

22 days ago40:30

40:30

While the Fed held rates steady as expected, the bigger story may be what's underneath: Corporate earnings show tariffs are starting to bite. Economic data prints are increasingly mixed. And the labor market is still holding out. But for how long? Manus takes a minute to assess the Fed funds rate stalemate. And he provides a thought about why a rate cut might be prudent right now. Dianne sees 2025 shaping up like déjà vu: rate cuts always just out of reach, as the market tiptoes through cooling demand and growing consumer strain. CRE, though, keeps humming. July deal volume jumped. LightBox’s own market sentiment survey shows steady to strong expectations for the second half. Phase I ESA activity rose 13% year over year. Multifamily is leading with major trades in New York City and the South Bronx. Even office is moving, with buyers chasing discounts and pricing finally settling. The team also flags a growing concern that data centers are starting to monopolize power, labor, and capital, which may potentially strain resources for other projects. The episode close reflecting on the loss of Blackstone’s Wesley LePatner. A respected leader and fierce advocate for women in commercial real estate, her passing is a profound loss for the entire CRE finance community. Our condolences to all the victims of the tragedy. 00:15 Federal Reserve's Decision and Economic Impacts 01:34 Tariffs and Their Economic Consequences 04:19 Labor Market Insights 11:05 LightBox Midyear CRE Market Sentiment Survey Results 20:17 Multifamily and Mixed-Use Transactions 26:51 Office Market Trends 33:44 Data Centers and Construction Resources 38:57 Tragedy in Midtown: Remembering Wesley LePatner Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Forecasting Through Fog — Rebecca Rockey on Stagflation, Tariffs & the CRE Outlook 37:50

29 days ago37:50

37:50

Rebecca Rockey, Deputy Chief Economist and Global Head of Forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield, joins the LightBox team for a focused conversation on the macroeconomic forces shaping commercial real estate in the back half of 2025. With stagflation creeping in, tariffs hitting record highs, and policy uncertainty clouding forecasts, Rebecca breaks down what’s different about this cycle and why the road ahead could be bumpier than many expect. From the surprising resilience in CRE capital markets to growing inflationary pressures in the goods economy, she explains why retail and industrial are especially vulnerable, and how the multifamily and office sectors are navigating this transition. Rebecca shares why construction costs are poised to rise 4.5% due to tariffs, how that could pause new development, and what that means for vacancy and rent trends heading into 2026. She also weighs in on where the Fed might land on rate cuts, what’s really driving office recovery (hint: it’s not just RTO), and why 2027 could shape up to be a banner year for CRE. Packed with data, context, and a dose of Rolling Stones wisdom, this episode is a must-listen for anyone looking to make sense of an uneven economic outlook. 01:04 Stagflation Watch: Are We Already There? 03:35 Policy Shocks & Forecasting in Uncharted Waters 04:42 Resilience in Capital Markets 13:00 Sector Snapshot: Retail, Industrial, Office & Multifamily 21:18 Construction Cost Crunch & Development Slowdown 31:17 The “One Big Beautiful Bill” & What It Means for CRE 34:00 Crystal Ball Closeout: Labor Signals, CRE Resilience & What’s Next Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Markets Dodge DC Drama – Inflation Muted, Bank Earnings Strong, and Industrial Bets Rise 35:01

5 weeks ago35:01

35:01

This week’s slate of economic data left pundits divided even as investors cheered on rising markets. Retail sales surprised to the upside, inflation was muted, and bank earnings beat forecasts. However, deeper trends raise caution: tariff receipts are surging, homebuilders are cutting prices, and the Trump–Powell standoff briefly rattled equity and bond markets. Manus remains bullish yet uneasy, warning that someone is absorbing billions in monthly tariff costs, and the bill may soon come due. Dianne points to the mixed results of the LightBox sentiment survey and leans on Jamie Dimon’s line this quarter: “forecasting is a waste of time.” The LightBox Appraisal Index rose in Q2 on retail and industrial demand, but cost uncertainty still looms. Industrial sector activity continued with big bets from Brookfield, Prologis, and Blackstone. Office continues to struggle evidenced by a round of transactions with Portland’s “Big Pink” tower selling at an 88% haircut. And outside the CRE market, the team weighs in on reports of Delta's AI-powered ticket pricing. What are your thoughts? We want your take. LightBox is about to close the Midyear 2025 CRE Market Survey and we want to hear from experts like you across valuation, due diligence, lending, investment, and brokerage. We’re exploring your reflections on the first half of 2025 and your outlook for the months ahead. Click here to take the survey > The survey closes EOD Friday, July 18th , and we’ll be sharing the results shortly thereafter. 02:51 Tariffs and Inflation Impact 09:01 Trump-Powell Tensions 12:00 LightBox Lender Appraisal Insights 14:59 Big Transactions in Industrial Real Estate 18:02 Office Market Challenges 20:46 Infrastructure Plays for Data Centers 24:01 Retail to Industrial Transformations 26:49 The AI Price is Right? Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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A Tale of Two Markets – CRE Distress vs. CMBS Resurgence with Morningstar’s David Putro 34:20

6 weeks ago34:20

34:20

David Putro, Head of Analytics for Morningstar Credit, doesn’t sugarcoat it. In this candid conversation with the LightBox team, he offers an unflinching look at where distress is building in commercial real estate and why resolution is moving at a crawl. With a sharp focus on office, multifamily, and malls, David explains why this cycle is unfolding slower than the last, and why some properties may never exit special servicing. From billion-dollar loans stuck in limbo to zombie malls surviving on post-COVID extensions, he lays out the long road ahead for asset resolution. The picture of growing distress offers a stark counterpoint to the healthy surge in CMBS lending so far in 2025. So, what gives? David breaks it all down and shares what Morningstar’s “Boots on the Ground” research reveals that spreadsheets miss (think vacancy patterns, tenant quality, and hidden red flags that influence recovery timelines). Don't miss David’s outlook on where distress is headed for the rest of 2025, why office assets remain frozen, and what really keeps credit pros like him up at night (spoiler: it’s not just interest rates). 00:55 Market Paradox: CRE Distress and CMBS Issuance 02:05 Challenges in Multifamily and Office Sectors 03:49 CMBS Purgatory and Loan Resolutions 10:59 Mall Distress and Adaptive Reuse 20:07 Boots on the Ground: Real Estate Insights 27:08 Future Outlook and Concern Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Midyear 2025 CRE Pulse Check and Outlook – Navigating the Second Half 40:06

7 weeks ago40:06

40:06

It’s halftime in 2025, and The CRE Weekly Digest team is back with a data-driven gut check on a market that’s proving more resilient than expected. Despite tariff shocks, geopolitical tension, and consumer gloom, CRE hasn’t blinked. In fact, capital is flowing, transaction volume is up, and nine-digit retail deals are making a surprise comeback. Manus sees signs of a second half surge, powered by engaged lenders, an expanding buyer pool, and the long-awaited return of Big Tech to the office market. Dianne flags soft spots, namely inflation pressure, GDP drag, and the retail sector’s tariff exposure, but concedes this market doesn’t rattle easily. The team also breaks down the latest CRE Activity Index, big bets from Apple, and whether fireworks should be tariff-exempt in the Big Beautiful Bill. The collective forecast: proceed, but don’t skip due diligence. And in true Digest fashion, they close with song picks that capture the CRE mood: Van Halen, Mumford & Sons, and a dose of Kelly Clarkson. We want your take. LightBox just launched the Midyear 2025 CRE Market Survey to hear from experts like you across valuation, due diligence, lending, investment, and brokerage. We’re exploring your reflections on the first half of 2025 and your outlook for the months ahead. Click here to take the survey > The survey closes Friday, July 18th , and we’ll be sharing the results shortly thereafter. 01:09 Market Resilience and Key Takeaways 05:35 Lightbox CRE Activity Index Analysis 10:15 Transaction Trends and Big Deals 13:21 Interest Rates and Fed Meetings 19:57 Selective Hiring Trends and Labor Market Insights 22:04 Optimism and Reservations for the Second Half 31:20 Sector Rapid-Fire Forecasts: Office, Multifamily, Industrial, and Retail Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Markets Surge, AI Booms, and CRE Activity Shows Resilience Even with Geopolitical Volatility and Fed-Policy Uncertainty 39:31

8 weeks ago39:31

39:31

It’s a milestone week at The CRE Weekly Digest —our one-year anniversary and 52nd episode. From launch day to today, we’ve unpacked the headlines, challenged assumptions, and surfaced the trends that matter most for CRE professionals navigating uncertainty. This episode is no different. Markets are running hot, with stocks brushing all-time highs despite risks from Middle East volatility to tariff headwinds and the Powell–Trump standoff. Is it optimism or selective amnesia? Manus calls it like he sees it, with Dianne and Martha weighing in on rate cut speculation, earnings compression, and investor fatigue. In CRE, conviction is showing up in the form of major bets: a $211M construction loan in Miami’s Edgewater, a Manhattan office-to-resi conversion, and a surge in data center demand, even as zoning friction and energy strain rise. Cincinnati tops rent growth rankings, and Walmart experiments with dark stores and drone delivery. We also give an advance look at the latest LightBox CRE Activity Index and spotlight the metros showing real momentum in environmental due diligence. And finally, a big thank you to our listeners—from NYC to Singapore—for showing up, weighing in, and pushing the conversation forward every week. Here’s to the next 52 episodes. 00:52 Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions 07:03 Interest Rates and Economic Outlook 12:29 New York City Mayoral Election and Potential Fallout 19:14 The Rise of Data Centers in the AI Era 24:57 Gyms are Back and Part of the Amenity Draw 27:39 Bold Moves in Multifamily and Office-Resi 35:11 Innovations in Retail: Dark Stores and Drone Delivery 37:00 Celebrating One Year of Insights with the Pod Team Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Shifting Sails–Navigating CRE Risk in the Era of Uncertainty–Holly Neber on Climate Risk, Insurance Shocks & Resilience 31:53

9 weeks ago31:53

31:53

What does it take to make a property—and a team—resilient in today’s volatile CRE landscape? Holly Neber, Chief Resilience Officer at AEI Consultants, joins the LightBox team to unpack the rising urgency around climate risk, insurance hurdles, and resilience planning. A 30-year environmental veteran and chair of the ASTM task group behind the industry’s first Property Resilience Assessment (PRA) guide, Holly breaks down how stakeholders are turning climate risk into actionable insight—before it derails deals or distorts value. From PRAs and insurance blow-ups to investor ‘walk-aways’ and model fatigue, Holly gives a masterclass in what CRE pros need to know now. She explains why resilience isn’t just physical—it’s cultural—and why the next wave of opportunity will belong to those who can identify risk and adapt. Don’t miss her insight on lender vs. investor expectations, how climate risk is already showing up in property pricing, and the mindset shift she sees among the next generation of consultants. This one’s packed with clarity, candor, and a forward-looking vision CRE needs right now. 01:15 Understanding Property Resilience 04:54 Climate Risk and Insurance Challenges 05:32 The ASTM Property Resilience Assessment Guide 09:37 Investor and Lender Perspectives on Climate Risk 14:37 Holly Neber's Journey and Leadership 16:13 Impact of Climate Risk on Property Valuation 26:50 Managing and Inspiring Teams 29:58 The Evolution of Environmental Site Assessments Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Inflation Eases, Tariff Tensions Cool, CRE Activity Dips & FEMA Fades — Good News, Bad News for CRE 35:09

10 weeks ago35:09

35:09

Inflation cools, tariff tensions ease, and investors start breathing a little easier, but is CRE catching a tailwind? The team digs into surprisingly positive CPI and PPI reports, unpacking why the market's fears may have overshot reality for now. With the May LightBox CRE Activity Index posting its first monthly decline of the year, the big question is whether this is a blip or the beginning of a new trend. Meanwhile, the conversation shifts to headlines shaking up sentiment: civil unrest in L.A., a federal ruling on eviction bans, and a proposed FEMA shutdown that could upend disaster recovery and reshape pricing in high-risk markets. As construction costs face new labor pressures and the Fed stays in wait-and-see mode, the team weighs what it all means for commercial real estate’s second half. On the ground, not all markets are slowing, Florida still has some upside, with luxury apartments trading hands at a premium and retail/hotel deal volume picking up steam. And in the office sector, a milestone moment: for the first time in 25 years, more space is being demolished or converted than built. The outlook? Cautiously optimistic. Or, as Manus puts it: “We went four for four this week—and that’s reason to feel good.” Also on the radar: socks, three-woods, and why a bagel might just be the best Father's Day gift of all. 00:46 Macroeconomic outlook: CPI, PPI, and tariffs 06:16 LA Spotlight: CRE implications 09:35 Eviction bans, rent caps & regulatory risk 13:51 FEMA phase-out: Resilience and rebuilding 16:04 LightBox May CRE Activity Index Dips 22:05 Office conversion trends & market bifurcation 28:00 Multifamily, retail, hotel: The dogs are hunting 30:37 South Florida trophy deals, Father's Day forecasts & more Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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In the CMBS Trenches with Shlomo Chopp— Distress, Risk, and Finding Diamonds in the Rough 38:57

11 weeks ago38:57

38:57

CMBS workouts aren’t for the faint of heart—and CMBS expert Shlomo Chopp knows it better than most. With 20+ years of experience untangling distressed assets, Shlomo offers a rare, unsparing look into what borrowers, bondholders, and even AAA investors often get wrong. From why “non-recourse” loans aren’t always what they seem to how banking can relationships collapse under pressure, Shlomo lays out why CMBS is a different beast—and why many borrowers walk in unprepared. He dives into tranche warfare, special servicers, and the dangers of relying on outdated property values. For bondholders, the takeaway is clear: think like real estate professionals. If you're not walking the property and talking to brokers, you're already behind. Stay to the end to hear a sneak peek of Shlomo’s patented micro-fulfillment retail centers—aimed at reviving malls by merging e-commerce with in-store logistics. This episode is part finance class, part war story, and a must-listen for anyone trying to read between the lines of CRE distress. 01:13 Understanding CMBS Borrowers and Their Motivations 03:19 Recourse vs Non-Recourse Loans in CMBS 07:36 Complexities of CMBS Trusts and Workouts 11:25 Navigating Distress in CMBS Investments 15:17 The Importance of Market Awareness for Investors 25:20 Understanding Market Dynamics and Credit Risk 29:38 Current State of the Distress Cycle 32:43 The Evolution of Retail in the E-Commerce Era Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Despite Tariff Turmoil Fatigue and Retail Recalibration, CRE Investment Holds Steady 40:24

12 weeks ago40:24

40:24

Markets may have cheered a court ruling limiting presidential tariff power—but don’t mistake it for clarity. The LightBox team—Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker—unpacks what’s really moving CRE: supply chain strains, shaky retail guidance, and tariff whiplash. Retailers are pulling forecasts, investors are fatigued, and Manus warns we’ve moved “from panic to complacency” way too fast. Still, CRE activity remains resilient. LightBox data shows strong listing volumes and investor interest, with more than 130 NDAs per deal on average. Plus: a rare $865M hotel deal, a bullish $535M multifamily buy in Atlanta, and a surge in law firm office leasing. The team also dives into the latest twists in New York’s rent stabilization saga—and whether bathing suits might be the new eggs. 02:49 Investor Sentiment and Market Complacency 06:04 Retail Earnings and Tariff Impact 11:34 CRE Activity and Market Trends 13:38 Noteworthy Sales in Multifamily Sector 22:35 The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Multifamily Loans 27:37 Challenges in Rent Stabilization and Property Management 30:58 Positive Trends in Office Space Leasing 36:10 Emerging Trends in Retail and E-commerce Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Navigating CRE Lending Amid Economic Uncertainty with Eastern Bank's Matthew Osborne 41:19

13 weeks ago41:19

41:19

How are regional banks navigating today’s choppy economic and federal policy waters? The LightBox team gets an inside look when they talk to Matthew Osborne, EVP and Chief Credit Officer at Eastern Bank – a regional bank in the Boston MSA. Matt explains why Boston’s chronic housing shortage is helping multifamily remain a magnet for capital, even as affordability pressures rise, and how a VC-fueled life sciences boom led to today’s glut of vacant lab space. His detailed breakdown of venture funding cycles, tenant demand, and submarket saturation is a must-listen for anyone tracking the life sciences and lab asset space. He also weighs in on why the market feels different this time, how lenders are stress-testing capital stacks, and what Boston’s biggest distressed office sale signals about future valuations. Plus, a black swan watch, a musical cameo, and why Here Comes the Sun might just be the theme song for 2025 lending. 01:10 Key Concerns in CRE Lending 03:22 Industry Sentiment and Market Cycles 08:48 Boston's Multifamily Market and Housing Shortage 14:58 Office to Residential Conversions in Boston 23:13 Life Sciences and Lab Space in Boston 33:46 Industrial Sector Insights Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com . www.lightboxre.com…

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Bob Knakal & Rod Santomassimo—Mastering CRE Sales and What It Really Takes to Sell 2,350 Buildings 37:50

14 weeks ago37:50