Shadow Fleet is Russia's Dark Gambit: Undercurrents Part 2

The Delegates Lounge

Welcome to the second edition of "Undercurrents," an ongoing series in The Delegates Lounge podcast about the oceans and seas that unite us, and sometimes, divide us.

In this episode, we're joined by Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a former longtime analyst with Lloyd's List, one of the world’s oldest continuously running journals that has provided shipping news from London for centuries.

Michelle expounds on the explosive growth of what she calls "the Dark Fleet," also commonly called "the Shadow Fleet," a parallel shipping network that transports sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela while shippers and receivers thumb their noses at the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
What began as just a small number of vessels in 2018 has mushroomed into more than 700 tankers, by her estimation, roughly 18% of the globally trading tanker fleet. Michelle reveals the elaborate deceptions employed by these vessels: so-called "flag hopping" between opportunistic registries, using Byzantine ownership structures to hide beneficial owners, spoofing location data, conducting ship-to-ship transfers at sea, and operating with questionable or fraudulent insurance that couldn't possibly cover a catastrophic spill.
The environmental and safety risks are staggering. These elderly, poorly maintained vessels, averaging 22 years old, sail through environmentally sensitive areas like the Baltic Sea carrying millions of barrels of oil. "The Dark Fleet is a very serious accident waiting to happen and I'm literally surprised there hasn't been one by now, simply because the condition of these ships is so terrible," Michelle warns, describing a potential billion-dollar environmental disaster waiting to happen. Meanwhile, approximately 25 seafarers per vessel often find themselves unwitting participants in sanctions evasion, with vessel abandonment rates reaching record highs.
A recent Baltic Sea confrontation between Estonian authorities and an unflagged tanker, which we spoke with the Estonian defense minister about in our latest episode, reveals the escalation of geopolitical tensions and limited options available to coastal governments. As sanctions and price caps on Russian oil show mixed results, Michelle says that some privately-owned shipping companies have begun returning to the Russian trade as prices fall below sanction thresholds – potentially improving safety but complicating policy objectives.
Subscribe to The Delegates Lounge for more critical insights into the maritime undercurrents shaping global politics, economics, and environmental security.

Speakers:
J. Alex Tarquinio (host) is a resident correspondent at the United Nations in New York and co-founder of The Delegates Lounge podcast. @alextarquinio of @delegateslounge on X and @thedelegateslounge on Instagram.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann (guest) is a maritime intelligence analyst and former longtime writer with Lloyd’s List, one of the world’s oldest continuously running journals. @Michellewb_ on X.

References:

Recent articles by our guest include this opinion piece in the Financial Times.

https://www.ft.com/content/7a89f7ae-cf3b-4e53-88bb-b87916f3eeef

Our host mentions in this episode that she interviewed Michelle for an article in The New York Times when the sanctions were relatively new.

https://www.nytimes.com/2

Chapters

1. Shadow Fleet is Russia's Dark Gambit: Undercurrents Part 2 (00:00:00)

2. Introduction to Maritime Insecurity and Michelle Weise Bockmann (00:00:32)

3. The Concerns of the International Maritime Organization (00:03:21)

4. Definitions, Methodologies & Deceptions of the Sanctioned Fleets (00:05:00)

5. Sanctions Effectiveness & Environmental Risks (00:11:20)

6. Seafarer Safety (00:19:33)

7. Secondary Sanctions and Price Cap Effects (00:21:49)

8. Greek Shipping and Regulated Shipping with Russia (00:28:18)

9. Fascination with Maritime Traffic and the Incident in the Gulf of Finland (00:33:20)

10. Priority is to find the Beneficial Owner (00:37:20)