Deep Dive Season 1: Nuclear Energy | Episode 4 - "The Secret Ingredient Is Demand Growth" | Nuclear Industry Writer Emmet Penney on Market Demand, What's Over/Underhyped, and Geography's Role

The Diligent Observer Podcast

Today's episode explores three ideas that caught my attention:

1. Nuclear's renaissance hinges on electricity demand growth - More than any other guest I’ve spoken with, Emmet nailed the point that macro demand growth—not new tech or climate concerns—is what will truly drive growth in the nuclear sector. And similarly, falling demand is what killed momentum in the space in the 1970s.
2. The “safety” problem has already been solved - Nuclear energy is ridiculously safe, and the incremental return on “more safe” designs is miniscule. As long as the technology is “as safe” as existing designs, great. “Safety becomes a type of advertising in nuclear.” So any startup highlighting the “more safe” value proposition should throw up yellow flags.
3. Location location location - Emmet broke down how power markets are structurally biased against baseload providers, which made me realize geography may be one of the most commonly overlooked factors in nuclear investment decisions.

I explore these ideas and more with Emmet Penney, Host of the Nuclear Barbarians and Senior Fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation.

Emmet Penney brings a unique analytical perspective as the creator of the Nuclear Barbarians Substack, a former contributing editor at Compact Magazine, and now as a Senior Infrastructure and Energy Fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation. His work has earned recognition through multiple Emergent Ventures grants and a Robert Novak Journalism Fellowship. From his base in Chicago, Emmet blends journalistic rigor with deep industry knowledge to challenge conventional wisdom about nuclear energy's past, present, and future.

During our conversation, Emmet shares:

• A historical framework for understanding nuclear's decline that traces back to macroeconomic shifts in the 1970s rather than the more commonly cited Three Mile Island incident.
• How state-level regulatory frameworks create vastly different investment landscapes across the US, with some states implementing contradictory policies that effectively block deployment.
• The historical influence of figures like Hyman Rickover and Amory Lovins on shaping nuclear policy and how their legacies continue to impact today's nuclear industry.

⚛️ The Nuclear Energy Investing Playbook

This episode is part of a special 5-part season on nuclear energy investing. Want to go deeper? Pre-order The Nuclear Energy Investing Playbook: An Angel's Guide.

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Chapters

1. Introduction (00:00:00)

2. Historical Context and Demand Growth (00:02:02)

3. Economic and Regulatory Hurdles (00:04:04)

4. Future Outlook for Nuclear Energy (00:06:17)

5. Investor Caution and Opportunities (00:10:21)

6. Understanding Fleet Scale Builds (00:23:56)

7. Challenges in Power Markets (00:24:34)

8. The Role of the DOE's Loan Program Office (00:27:06)

9. Political Risks in Nuclear Investments (00:32:53)

10. Key Influencers in Nuclear History (00:39:55)