Deep Dive Season 1: Nuclear Energy | Episode 6: "Science Projects Masquerading as Commercial Products" | Dr. Chris Keefer on the SMR Hype Cycle & Energy Independence Imperatives

The Diligent Observer Podcast

Today's episode explores 3 ideas that caught my attention:

1. Some Patience Required: Nuclear's rise from 50–60% to 93% capacity factors took decades, not years. Expecting quick returns on new nuclear tech ignores the industry’s inherently long development cycles.
2. Infrastructure Economics Favor State Capital: Like railroads, nuclear requires high upfront investment with long-term benefits, making it better suited to state-backed efforts. That’s why countries like China build reactors faster and cheaper than the West, where costs and timelines balloon without national coordination.
3. Fusion is a Long Way Away: Fusion, despite major investment, remains far more complex than fission and delivers the same output: baseload electricity. Prioritizing fusion over fission optimization delays progress and misdirects resources.

I explore these ideas and more with Dr. Chris Keefer, President of Canadians for Nuclear and Host of the Decouple Podcast. He brings a unique blend of medical expertise and energy policy understanding as both an emergency physician in Toronto. As host of the Decouple Podcast, he explores the science, technology, and politics of energy systems with particular focus on nuclear power's role in providing clean, reliable baseload electricity while advocating for evidence-based approaches to energy transition challenges.

During our conversation, Chris shares:

• A compelling case study comparing US vs. Chinese AP1000 reactor construction times that reveals design completion—not regulation or labor—was the primary factor in Vogtle's delays.
• Why Micro-Reactors face fundamental physics challenges that make the "diesel generator replacement" narrative deeply problematic despite its appeal to investors and remote communities.
• A framework for understanding nuclear as analogous to hydroelectricity in its economic structure, revealing why private capital struggles to finance projects with decades-long return horizons.

⚛️ The Nuclear Energy Investing Playbook

This episode is part of a special 5-part season on nuclear energy investing. Want to go deeper? Pre-order The Nuclear Energy Investing Playbook: An Angel's Guide.

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Chapters

1. Introduction (00:00:00)

2. The Social and Political Landscape of Nuclear Energy (00:02:55)

3. The Bear Case for Nuclear Energy (00:05:41)

4. Challenges of Small Modular Reactors (00:08:05)

5. The Role of Venture Capital in Nuclear Innovation (00:12:22)

6. Technical and Economic Challenges of Micro Reactors (00:19:55)

7. Global Nuclear Deployment: A Necessity (00:27:45)

8. China's Strategic Energy Moves (00:33:37)

9. The US Nuclear Renaissance That Wasn't (00:35:15)

10. The Future of Nuclear in the West (00:36:53)

11. Ontario's Nuclear Leadership (00:39:37)

12. The Vogtle Project: Lessons Learned (00:40:41)

13. Realistic Expectations for Nuclear and Fusion (00:47:55)