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217 - GDP Relief and a Fracturing Global Order
Manage episode 469898829 series 2125978
Content provided by Australian Institute of Company Directors and The Australian Institute of Company Directors. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Australian Institute of Company Directors and The Australian Institute of Company Directors or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.
This week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though productivity remains a concern with a third consecutive quarter of falling GDP per hour worked.
Turning their attention to the global stage, they examine the evolving economic landscape in the United States, with the Atlanta Fed now forecasting contraction and the impact of newly implemented tariffs. They explore how these factors, coupled with significant geopolitical uncertainties including the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine, are contributing to market jitters and a shifting focus away from previous narratives like AI.
Finally, they consider the potential economic ramifications of the US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) initiative.
Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
223 episodes
ShareManage episode 469898829 series 2125978
Content provided by Australian Institute of Company Directors and The Australian Institute of Company Directors. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Australian Institute of Company Directors and The Australian Institute of Company Directors or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.
This week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though productivity remains a concern with a third consecutive quarter of falling GDP per hour worked.
Turning their attention to the global stage, they examine the evolving economic landscape in the United States, with the Atlanta Fed now forecasting contraction and the impact of newly implemented tariffs. They explore how these factors, coupled with significant geopolitical uncertainties including the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine, are contributing to market jitters and a shifting focus away from previous narratives like AI.
Finally, they consider the potential economic ramifications of the US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) initiative.
Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
223 episodes
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The Dismal Science
The RBA's new Monetary Policy Board meets later this month to consider the case for a second rate cut in the current easing cycle. What will it make of Australia's election campaign, this week's inflation numbers, the recent rash of international forecast downgrades from the IMF, WTO and World Bank, and ongoing global trade policy uncertainty? Still high on Easter chocolate, the pod offers its unsolicited advice.…
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The Dismal Science
Instead of the traditional Easter Egg, the Dismal Science pod has a quick take on the implications of 'Liberation Day' and its aftermath in its Easter basket. It's tariff free! (Note, contents may include some discussion of trade policy tools.) For more economic insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, including his weekly economic update, head to: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html.…
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The Dismal Science
1 Dismal Science Live at AGS: US Markets, CHIPS Act, Geopolitical Shifts, and Australian Economic Concerns 37:12
37:12 
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this live from the Australian Governance Summit episode, hosts Raphael Dixon and Mark Thurwal analyze current economic and geopolitical developments. They discuss the "Trump trade" market fluctuations, US CHIPS Act's mixed impact on semiconductor manufacturing, and China's growing chip capabilities. The conversation covers Germany's potential defense spending increase, US steel tariffs affecting Australia, contradictions in US onshoring and immigration policies, and the possibility of talent flowing from the US to countries like Australia. Throughout, they offer practical investment guidance for navigating uncertain markets. Subscribe to Mark's weekly newsletter here…
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The Dismal Science
1 217 - GDP Relief and a Fracturing Global Order 18:52
18:52 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked18:52
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though productivity remains a concern with a third consecutive quarter of falling GDP per hour worked. Turning their attention to the global stage, they examine the evolving economic landscape in the United States, with the Atlanta Fed now forecasting contraction and the impact of newly implemented tariffs. They explore how these factors, coupled with significant geopolitical uncertainties including the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine, are contributing to market jitters and a shifting focus away from previous narratives like AI. Finally, they consider the potential economic ramifications of the US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) initiative. Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html…
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The Dismal Science
1 216 - Eight reasons a soft landing is uncertain 36:24
36:24 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked36:24
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest inflation data and react to recent rate cuts, examining whether the soft landing declared by the IMF is truly secure. Mark shares a sneak peek of his upcoming article in Company Director magazine, outlining eight key global uncertainties that could derail the current economic outlook. They explore topics such as diverging central bank rate paths, the impact of a potential Trump administration, the fraying rules-based international system, demographic transitions, technological revolutions (AI, bioscience, energy), the energy transition, state-based armed conflict, and domestic political uncertainty. Despite the risks, is there room for optimism, or are we heading towards a "G-Zero" world? Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html…
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The Dismal Science
1 215 - 🍾 Rate Cut Victory Lap! 🍾 AI’s Sputnik Moment & the US’ Smoot-Hawley Moment. 44:15
44:15 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked44:15
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedWe're back, and we force Mark to take a victory lap for his February rate cut prediction! We dive into the details of the RBA's decision and its implications for future cuts. Then, we dissect the market freakout following the release of Deepseek's open-source AI model. What does it say about AI market leaders’ valuations, the effectiveness of export controls and the future of AI? Finally, we discuss the return of "Tariff Man" and the potential for a Smoot-Hawley moment.…
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The Dismal Science
1 Special - Tech, AI, the New World Order, and the Future of Growth 49:21
49:21 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked49:21
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedWe’re taking a break from our usual format to look at some of the big technological and economic themes of 2024, and where they are going in 2025 and into the future. Mark and Raph discuss the explosion of AI and where it might be headed, as well as its impact on financial markets. We contemplate what might constitute the next big wave of global innovation. Will AI prove to be transformative or merely a sustaining innovation? And could the changing geopolitical landscape mean the end of hyper-globalisation? We will be back with our regular episodes in February. If you enjoyed or hated this episode, we’d love to hear your feedback! Send us an email: podcasts@aicd.com.au…
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The Dismal Science
1 Special - 2024 Wrap Up: A Year of Living Conservatively Ft. Su-Lin Ong 1:01:34
1:01:34 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked1:01:34
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week we are joined by Su-Lin Ong, Managing Director, Chief Economist & Senior Corporate Relationship Manager of RBC Capital Markets. Together Mark and Su-lin reflect on Australia’s economic conditions and the RBA’s 2024 performance. They unpack why the RBA has held interest rates steady for so long – and what this means for Australia’s economic outlook, including a (mild) disagreement on the outlook for interest rates. Plus, they discuss the impact of a new US administration, the RBC's unique projections, the global easing cycle, and how Australia stacks up against the rest of the world. Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html…
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The Dismal Science
The RBA keeps interest rates on hold, but the big news is a change in tone that suggests Mark's long predicted February rate cut is back on the table. Also, Mark looks back at his predictions from a year ago, revisiting his forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. Get your ticket to AGS: https://www.aicd.com.au/events/australian-governance-summit.html Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html…
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The Dismal Science
1 213 - GDP Growth Stumbles, Per Capita Recession Deepens, Will the RBA Hold Firm? 13:40
13:40 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked13:40
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week, we examine Australia's latest soft GDP figures. The headline number is a weak 0.3% quarterly expansion, the lowest rate of annual growth since the pandemic with private sector demand contributing nothing to this meager growth figure. Will the RBA stay the course with rates on hold in the face of a deepening per capita recession and falling living standards? We also look at what's driving Australia's poor economic performance relative to other OECD nations. Get your ticket to AGS: https://www.aicd.com.au/events/australian-governance-summit.html Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html…
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The Dismal Science
1 212 - Is Germany Kaput? Lessons for Australia in a Deglobalising World 29:55
29:55 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked29:55
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week, the Dismal Science turns its attention to Europe’s economic powerhouse - Germany. We examine the country's recent economic struggles, exploring the reasons behind its faltering performance, including the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, and the rise of Chinese manufacturing. We discuss whether these challenges are merely cyclical or point to deeper structural issues with the German economic model. With a shrinking workforce, rising fiscal pressures, and declining global trade, is “Germanification” a cautionary tale for other advanced economies, including Australia? We also examine the impact of China's growing dominance in key industries, particularly the automotive sector, where Chinese companies are now leading the world in EV production. Can Germany adapt and compete, or is its era of economic dominance over? Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au…
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The Dismal Science
1 211 - Rate Cut Prediction on Life Support? Labour Market Holds Strong & COP29 Gets Political 26:59
26:59 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked26:59
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week on the Dismal Science, Mark and Raph take a look at the latest Australian labour market figures and what it means for Mark's increasingly shaky call for a February rate cut. Is the RBA being too pessimistic about what the unemployment rate associated with full employment needs to be? Plus, the Dismal Science takes a metaphorical visit to Baku for COP 29 and finds “upside-down geopolitics” at play. And will President Trump’s reelection derail the action items out of COP29? Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au…
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The Dismal Science
1 US Election Special: The Return of Tariff Man 47:08
47:08 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked47:08
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedJoin Mark and Raph to unpack the potential economic implications of the US election result. We examine some of the key economic policy pledges that President Elect President Donald Trump made during the campaign, from tariffs to taxes, and discuss the possible ramifications for interest rates, inflation, growth, and other economic variables. President Trump's proposals could send US average tariff rates to their highest level since the 1934 Great Depression. What would this mean for inflation, the US dollar, and the global economy? We also explore the potential impact of tax cuts and deregulation on growth and profits, as well as the implications for the Federal Reserve and US debt and deficits. And is this a sign of a broader global shift away from neoliberalism? Tune in to find out. Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au…
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The Dismal Science
1 210 - Wage Growth Slows, Consumer Sentiment Lifts...but for How Long? 16:48
16:48 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked16:48
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week on The Dismal Science, we examine the latest economic data releases, including wage growth figures, consumer and business sentiment surveys, and the AICD's Director Sentiment Index. The Wage Price Index showed annual growth slowing to 3.5%, a welcome development for the RBA in its fight against inflation. But with productivity growth stalling, will this be enough to see interest rate cuts in the near future? Consumer sentiment surged in November, reaching its highest level since the first half of 2022, fuelled by optimism about the interest rate outlook and a strong labor market. However, this optimism was tempered by the results of the US election, with sentiment declining sharply following the outcome. Businesses also reported improved confidence in October, but the AICD's survey of directors painted a much bleaker picture, with concerns about inflation, interest rates, and a looming recession weighing heavily on sentiment. Will the recent positive economic data prove to be a fleeting reprieve, or are we finally turning a corner? Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au…
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The Dismal Science
1 209 - US Election Volatility! Plus the RBA Holds, But For How Long? 16:45
16:45 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked16:45
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThe big news this week is the US presidential election. Markets are reacting in real time as results come in - we look at the volatility and what it means for Australia. Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive month. We examine the RBA's latest forecasts, which suggest a slightly softer economic outlook than previously predicted, with lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and slower inflation. But is this bad or good when it comes to taming inflation? Mark explains why this could actually be good news for those hoping for an interest rate cut. Also on the agenda: the role of government spending in keeping the economy afloat, and whether now is the time for businesses to start investing. Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au…
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