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Navigating Complexity: Timothy Clancy on Modeling and Policy-Making
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In this episode of The Flux, hosted by John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, we hear from Timothy Clancy, a researcher from the University of Maryland's START program. Recorded at the Complex Social Systems Society of the Americas Conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Clancy shares insights from his career, which spans government work and applied studies on national security. They discuss the evolution of modeling in policy-making, the challenges of visualizing complex data, and the importance of building trust with policy-makers. Clancy emphasizes the need for simplicity in communication, the enduring nature of integrating soft skills with technical models, and the crucial role of understanding organizational dynamics to drive impactful decisions. The conversation also touches on specific models he has worked on, including those related to countering ISIS and studying violence and instability, illustrating the importance of robust, scenario-driven simulations in informing policy.
00:00 Introduction to The Flux
00:47 Meet Timothy Clancy
01:03 Timothy's Background and Work
01:45 Challenges in Policy Making with Data
02:58 Visualization and Communication in Modeling
05:29 Timothy's Career Shift and Focus
07:00 Emerging State Actor Model
12:40 Modeling Sentiment and Radicalization
20:35 Counterfactuals and Policy Making
23:08 Navigating Policy Making Institutions
31:41 Conference Insights and Conclusion
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