Episode 240: Eroding Nuclear Norms and the Future of Non-Proliferation with Dr. William Potter

The International Risk Podcast

This week on The International Risk Podcast, Dominic Bowen is joined by Dr. William Potter to explore the escalating risks and eroding norms surrounding nuclear weapons in today’s fractured global order. As traditional arms control mechanisms falter and new technologies complicate deterrence, Dr. Potter outlines the mounting dangers of miscalculation, norm erosion, and geopolitical mistrust in nuclear decision-making.

Drawing on decades of firsthand experience, from every NPT Review Conference since 1995 to advising the United Nations, Dr. Potter walks us through critical developments including Russia’s nuclear signaling, China’s evolving posture, and the destabilizing potential of non-state actors. From radiological weapons to AI-enabled crisis simulations, this conversation highlights how fragile the global nuclear architecture has become, and what it will take to rebuild trust and transparency.

Dr. William Potter is the Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies and Founding Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at MIIS. He has served on the UN Secretary-General’s Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters and participated in every major NPT negotiation since 1995. He is the author or editor of over 20 books, including his latest: Death Dust: The Rise, Decline, and Future of Radiological Weapons Programs.

Related Resources Mentioned in This Episode:

• Book: Death Dust: The Rise, Decline, and Future of Radiological Weapons Programs (Stanford Universityi Press, 2023).

The International Risk Podcast is a must-listen for senior executives, board members, and risk advisors. This weekly podcast dives deep into international relations, emerging risks, and strategic opportunities. Hosted by Dominic Bowen, Head of Strategic Advisory at one of Europe's top risk consulting firms, the podcast brings together global experts to share insights and actionable strategies.

Dominic's 20+ years of experience managing complex operations in high-risk environments, combined with his role as a public speaker and university lecturer, make him uniquely positioned to guide these conversations. From conflict zones to corporate boardrooms, he explores the risks shaping our world and how organisations can navigate them.

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Chapters

1. Opening & Guest Introduction (00:00:00)

2. Escalating Threats and Miscalculation (00:01:58)

3. Politics, Trust, and Nuclear Security (00:05:47)

4. The Role and Relevance of the NPT (00:10:28)

5. Russia’s Nuclear Signaling and Norm Erosion (00:16:55)

6. Tactical Nuclear Use and Crisis Simulation (00:20:50)

7. Sweden, NATO, and European Deterrence (00:23:58)

8. What Lies Ahead in Nuclear Risk with Russia (00:27:23)

9. Subscribe to our Newsletter (00:30:51)

10. Indo-Pacific Dynamics: North Korea, China, and U.S. Credibility (00:31:06)

11. South Asia, Non-State Actors, and Nuclear Terrorism (00:34:44)

12. New Vulnerabilities and Radiological Weapons (00:38:46)

13. Final Reflections (00:43:15)