#241 Chris Whalen: No Recession This Year, Fed 'Playing Chicken' With Trump, No 'Big Selloff' Expected Without External Event

The Julia La Roche Show

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 240 to discuss markets and the state of the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Whalen explains why market euphoria has faded under Trump's "shock and awe" strategy. Banks face a $3 trillion mortgage securities problem yielding under 3% against 3% funding costs. He notes the FDIC has stopped reporting troubled bank asset totals after 35 years, suggesting numerous insolvent institutions need resolution. Despite these issues, Whalen doesn't forecast a recession, seeing continued growth with isolated credit problems. In commercial real estate, he describes a "silent recession" where banks avoid taking properties, while for residential real estate he predicts price softening, then a rate-cut mini-boom before a major 2028 correction. Whalen also calls Fannie & Freddie stocks a "pump and dump" trade, states gold is "the only form of money that's not debt," and dismisses crypto as "nothing."

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen

1:06 Big picture market overview and Trump policy impact

2:49 Stock market as political proxy and market conditions

4:46 Fed policy outlook and potential rate cuts

6:09 Banking sector challenges and mark-to-market issues

8:07 Silicon Valley Bank anniversary and bank issues

11:10 Economic assessment and credit conditions

13:52 Commercial real estate challenges

16:11 Discussion of tariffs and Trump's structural changes

20:13 Debt, government spending, and economic growth

22:18 Investment approach and AI skepticism

24:36 Gold vs cryptocurrency perspective

25:58 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

27:29 Housing market conditions and affordability

29:50 Closing thoughts and where to find his work