#254 Dr. Lacy Hunt: The Five Recessionary Forces Creating an Economic Interregnum

The Julia La Roche Show

In Episode 254 of The Julia La Roche Show, legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt, Chief Economist at Hoisington Investment Management, analyzes what he calls an economic "interregnum" where five convergent forces are aligning to depress growth. Dr. Hunt methodically explains how tariffs will ultimately prove deflationary rather than inflationary, why the Fed's restrictive monetary policy is misplaced, how federal spending cuts are creating headwinds, why massive debt overhang limits policy effectiveness, and how changing demographics will impact long-term prospects. With over 56 years of experience and historical perspective dating back to the 1920s, Dr. Hunt delivers a sobering but authoritative prediction that recession lies ahead in 2025, describing it as "a long, difficult slog" rather than a brief downturn.

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Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist. He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics."

Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO).

This is the 56th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases.

Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction and welcome

1:16 - "Interregnum" explanation

1:28 - Tariffs discussion begins

2:08 - Economic boost from tariff announcements

2:49 - Consumer buying ahead of tariffs

3:42 - Employment impact of demand surge

4:26 - Inventory accumulation

5:03 - Federal spending decline (FY 2025)

6:18 - Economy in frail condition

7:05 - Beverage ratio analysis

7:45 - Average hourly earnings indicator

8:11 - April's wage growth weakness

9:30 - Late Easter timing challenges

10:31 - Recession prediction

10:58 - Five convergent economic factors

11:32 - Microeconomics of tariffs

12:55 - Price elasticity in international trade

14:31 - Historical context (1920s-1930s)

15:44 - French devaluation of 1925

17:43 - Smoot-Hawley tariff impact

19:45 - Chart explanation of M2 trend

21:03 - Tariffs' impact on money supply

22:15 - Monetary policy restrictiveness

22:51 - Fed's "data dependency" critique

25:31 - Other deposit liabilities explained

28:38 - Fed policy recommendations

29:37 - Tax cut potency limitations

31:16 - Fed's need for longer-term view

32:08 - Forward guidance discussion

33:22 - Asset reallocation issues

35:48 - Net national savings analysis

37:39 - Birth rate economic connections

39:46 - Immigration discussion

42:52 - Recession confirmation

43:49 - Historical economists on debt

44:37 - Interest expense approaching defense spending

46:18 - US debt impacts (125% of GDP)

48:30 - Gross vs. net debt explanation

49:48 - Fisher equation for bond yields

53:00 - Tariffs' deflationary nature

55:32 - High-tech sector growth analysis

56:38 - Aircraft sector growth unsustainability

57:11 - Federal spending outlook

1:00:03 - Need for tariff dispute resolution

1:01:18 - Closing remarks