Darrell Fletcher - Commodity Market Insights: Energy, Copper, and Precious Metals Trends

The KE Report

In this KE Report daily editorial, I’m joined by Darrell Fletcher, Managing Director of Commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets, who provides a trading desk perspective on the latest price action, positioning, and macro signals across the energy, copper, and precious metals markets.

- Energy volatility dominates June - from geopolitical spikes to bearish fundamentals.
- Copper holds firm above $4 with physical market dislocations and tariff pricing.
- Gold consolidates near record highs as silver plays catch-up.

Key Discussion Highlights:

• Energy Markets: Oil spiked on Middle East tensions but quickly reversed on news of a ceasefire. Darrell highlights that despite short-term risk premiums, the WTI forward curve remains anchored around $62, reflecting ongoing bearish fundamentals like rising global inventories and weakening demand. US rig counts are at multi-year lows, but no supply shock is expected yet.
  
• Natural Gas: A short-lived surge on heatwave-driven demand brought prices above $4, but markets have now converged back toward $3.50. Darrell notes a balanced setup, supported by increasing LNG flows and long-term support from Calendar 2026 pricing around $4.40.
  
• Copper: The metal continues to trade strongly just below $5/lb. Physical flows into COMEX are pushing spreads higher, with LME inventories falling and tariff expectations leading to a 10-15% price premium. Large copper miners like Freeport and BHP are rebounding, but still lag copper’s year-to-date performance.
  
• Precious Metals: Gold is flat for the month but remains near record highs, while silver is up 7% in June and closing the performance gap. Darrell maintains a bullish view on gold due to debt concerns, a weakening USD, and potential Fed rate cuts. Silver, while less of a pure monetary asset, shows strong industrial demand and momentum.
  
• US Dollar & Macro Impact: A falling USD (down ~10% YTD) is generally supportive of commodities, but Darrell points out the correlation is looser than in the past. He sees continued pressure on the greenback from fiscal concerns and rate cut expectations.