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Ep. 40 - Was the Mortgage Renewal Cliff Overblown? | How a Bad Narrative Took Over
Manage episode 474479172 series 3577997
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In this episode of The Last Honest Realtor podcast, host David Fleming tackles the most talked-about topic in Canadian real estate over the past two years: the so-called mortgage renewal cliff. Was it ever a real threat, or just a media-fueled panic? With his signature candor and a heavy dose of data, David breaks down how this narrative took shape—and why it may have already unraveled.
Tracing the evolution from “mortgage renewal shock” to “crisis,” then to “cliff,” and finally to the more recent “renewal wave,” David explores how language shaped perception, and how headlines didn’t always align with reality. He unpacks the impact of Bank of Canada rate cuts, borrower behavior, and lender strategies to ask the big question: was this Canada’s most overblown real estate panic?
Backed by economic data and a sharp critique of mainstream reporting, this episode doesn’t just examine what happened—it reveals why it happened, and what smart homeowners and investors should take away from it.
In This Episode:
- The origin and evolution of the mortgage renewal cliff narrative
- Why headlines shifted from panic to pragmatism in late 2024
- What delinquency rates actually tell us about borrower distress
- The role of rate cuts and lender flexibility in averting a crisis
- How to think critically about media narratives in real estate
Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
01:00 – Was the Mortgage Renewal Cliff Real?
06:45 – How Rock-Bottom Rates Fueled the Fear
13:00 – Media Meltdown: From Shock to Crisis to Cliff
20:00 – Why the Panic Began to Fade
24:00 – What the Banks and Borrowers Did Right
28:00 – Mortgage Delinquencies: What the Numbers Really Say
31:00 – David’s Verdict: Was It Overblown?
Don't Miss:
- David’s breakdown of why the mortgage renewal crisis didn’t materialize as feared
- A sharp look at how banks quietly changed course in 2025
- A call to challenge mainstream narratives and rely on facts—not fear
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