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BCG’s Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Global Macro: Recession Risk, Tariffs, Debt Dynamics | #582

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Manage episode 483066930 series 1058800
Content provided by The Idea Farm. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by The Idea Farm or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.

Today’s guest is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Global Chief Economist at BCG and author Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.

In today’s episode, Philipp starts by sharing his framework to assess macroeconomic risk, emphasizing the importance of adapting to changing global conditions. Then he applies that framework to the world today and shares his view on tariffs and changing trade relations, the impact of AI on labor and the deflationary effects of technology. He also covers global currencies, including the dollar and gold, and if he believes we are headed for a recession.

(0:00) Starts

(1:07) Rejecting the master model mentality

(3:34) The allure of doom

(8:08) Historical recession risk frameworks

(14:00) Public debt, balance sheets, and global tariff impacts

(19:41) Sentiment indicators

(24:41) Wealth distribution in different regions

(28:44) AI's impact on labor

(33:05) De-dollarization

(40:02) Most memorable investment

-----

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For detailed show notes, click here

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com

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Sponsor: YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. Get 20% off your initial YCharts Professional subscription when you start your free trial.

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Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at [email protected]

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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.

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Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  continue reading

662 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 483066930 series 1058800
Content provided by The Idea Farm. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by The Idea Farm or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.

Today’s guest is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Global Chief Economist at BCG and author Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.

In today’s episode, Philipp starts by sharing his framework to assess macroeconomic risk, emphasizing the importance of adapting to changing global conditions. Then he applies that framework to the world today and shares his view on tariffs and changing trade relations, the impact of AI on labor and the deflationary effects of technology. He also covers global currencies, including the dollar and gold, and if he believes we are headed for a recession.

(0:00) Starts

(1:07) Rejecting the master model mentality

(3:34) The allure of doom

(8:08) Historical recession risk frameworks

(14:00) Public debt, balance sheets, and global tariff impacts

(19:41) Sentiment indicators

(24:41) Wealth distribution in different regions

(28:44) AI's impact on labor

(33:05) De-dollarization

(40:02) Most memorable investment

-----

Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube

For detailed show notes, click here

To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com

-----

Sponsor: YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. Get 20% off your initial YCharts Professional subscription when you start your free trial.

Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok

-----

Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at [email protected]

-----

Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.

-----

Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  continue reading

662 episodes

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