2024 Predictions Review

The Property Nomads Podcast

Rob reflects on his property finance and macro predictions for 2024, assessing the accuracy of each forecast made at the beginning of the year. The predictions covered a range of topics, including gold prices, the Bank of England's base rate, the commercial property market, house prices, oil prices, and a wildcard prediction regarding the U.S. presidential election...

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The prediction that gold would hit $2,500 was accurate, with gold peaking at $2,800 later in the year, marking it as one of the best-performing assets.
• The expectation that the Bank of England would increase its base rate to at least 7% was incorrect, as the rate remained significantly lower, around 4.5% to 4.75%.
• The prediction of a collapse in the commercial property market did not materialise, as the market remained stable in the UK despite some global concerns.
• The forecast that house prices would increase by 5% year-on-year was also incorrect, with data showing a slight decline of 0.3% compared to the previous month.

BEST MOMENTS

"The first prediction was that gold would hit $2,500 amid economic meltdown. Now, I'm going to give myself a point for this because gold certainly hit $2,500 at the latter end of the year."

"The second prediction was that the Bank of England would increase its base rate to at least 7%. This is completely incorrect. I haven't fared well with this."

"The third prediction was that the commercial property market collapses. Again, I have to give myself a big X on the spot for that one. That hasn't happened."

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