7-22-25 Bonds Are Trapped in a Trading Range | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Bonds have been trapped in a trading range for some time, with Yields stuck at around 4.3-4.4%. This is a function of economic growth and inflation. If you want to know where interest rates should trade (in terms of the Ten-year Treasury), it's GDP + Inflation: There is about an 84% correlation going all the way back to 1970. Technically speaking, there's a giant wedge being built into Yields, and they're going to break out to one side or the other. If to the upside, rates will move up to about 4.8%, maybe 4.9%; some kind of inflationary pressure is going to be needed to raise that rate above GDP to add to that total return. However, if the economy slows, we could see Yields break down below the wedge, putting rates closer to 4%, maybe 3.5%. The rest of the markets are doing fine for now. Another wedge pattern is also developing, and a break out to the downside is going to lead to that correction we've been expecting. Interestingly, the NASDAQ has traded above its 20-DMA for over 60-days, the longest such stretch since 1999. Money flows are extended; that typically marks market peaks. Retail trading flows appear to be reaching a level of exhaustion. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://youtu.be/TYCtn9zlFKU ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Retail Speculation Is Back With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/retail-speculation-is-back-with-a-vengeance/ "Company Buybacks Are Surging" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/company-buybacks-are-surging/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MovingAverages #Bonds #TenYearTreasury #GDP #Inflation #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing