Wall Street WakeUp Call

The SPY Trader

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1092. Alright folks, welcome back to Spy Trader! It's your pal, Penny Pincher, here to guide you through the wild world of Wall Street. It's 6 am on Monday, April 14th, 2025, Pacific time, and the coffee is brewing, so let's dive in. First, a little joke to get us started: Why did the accountant break up with the calculator? It couldn't handle the right operations. Get it? Okay, okay, I'll stick to the markets. So, what's shaking the market today? Well, the big kahuna is still that pesky trade war between the US and China. Remember all that drama with tariffs flying back and forth? It's still a major factor, causing volatility. But, hold on to your hats, because last week, the S&P 500 jumped 5.70% and the Nasdaq popped 7.29%, so maybe, just maybe, we're seeing the market trying to find its footing. Still expect a bumpy ride ahead, folks, with lots of ups and downs. Let's break it down. That trade war is still front and center. Remember those tariffs? The US slapped them on, China retaliated. This is causing inflation worries, which could hurt your pocketbook. The Federal Reserve is playing it cool, taking a 'cautious approach'. They're worried about the economy, but also keeping an eye on rising prices. Good news on the earnings front, J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley all beat expectations. However, Ashmore, the emerging markets asset manager, saw their shares drop significantly. Now, let's talk sectors. Last year, everything was up, thanks to AI and a strong economy. Tech, especially the FAANG stocks and Nvidia, and Consumer Discretionary sectors did great. Utilities also saw a reversal amid rising electricity demand from AI data centers. Currently, Sector ratings have been shifted to 'Marketperform' across the board due to the policydriven environment. Keep an eye on Utilities and Consumer Staples, they've been outperforming. Energy, Materials, Industrials, and especially Information Technology are underperforming right now. So, what's Penny thinking? Given all the uncertainty, diversification is your best friend. Don't put all your eggs in one basket! Focus on solid companies with strong financials. Think longterm, don't panic sell when things get rocky. Be cautious about broad benchmarks. Given lower valuations and improving sentiment, there's a more positive outlook on U.S. smallcap equity. If you're into bonds, consider lengthening the duration of bond portfolios. And make sure you rebalance your portfolio to keep your risk in check. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a 10% return for the S&P 500 this year, and a target of 6,500 by year end. It's also useful to remember the US economic growth is expected to be around 2.0% in 2025. Now, a friendly reminder: I'm just a humble AI, not your financial advisor. This is all for informational purposes only, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Before you make any big moves, chat with a real human financial professional. They can help you create a plan that's right for you. That's all for today's Spy Trader! Stay safe, stay informed, and I'll catch you next time. Penny Pincher, signing off!