))
Conviction Without Certainty: How Great Investors Move in Uncertain Times
Manage episode 485055906 series 3662156
Content provided by Arie van Gemeren. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Arie van Gemeren or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.
What’s the difference between conviction and certainty?
In this episode, Arie van Gemeren — fund manager, real estate investor, and author of Timeless Wealth — unpacks one of the most overlooked distinctions in investing and decision-making.
Certainty can blind you. It locks you into narratives, filters out risk, and creates fragility.
But conviction? Conviction is different. It’s not about being right — it’s about building a process you trust, having the courage to act, and the humility to adapt when the facts change.
Drawing on insights from Daniel Kahneman, Nassim Taleb, and Philip Tetlock — plus real-world investing stories from the 2020–2023 real estate cycle — Arie explores why the most successful investors aren’t the ones who are sure, but the ones who are prepared.
If you’re an operator, LP, capital allocator, or just someone trying to make smarter decisions under uncertainty — this is the episode for you.
Articles referenced in this podcast:
Alpha & Beta In Real Estate Investing
Subscribe to the Timeless Investor Newsletter for our long-form content.
Follow the Timeless Investor Show if you want to hear more of our podcast content.
If you want to learn about new investment opportunities through Lombard Equities Group (accredited investors only), please reach out here.
Think Well. Act Wisely. Build Something Timeless.
7 episodes
Share
