Africa's S Curves: A Case for Realistic Optimism

The Trajectory Africa

In this episode of The Trajectory Africa, DFS Lab General Partner Stephen Deng introduces "Africa's S-curves," a framework that explains why technology transitions on the continent take longer, but are also characterized by dramatic adoption and big impacts on informal markets due to improvements in productivity and cost structures. We talk through why the S-Curve logic points to a case for augmenting informal market structures with tech rather than trying to replace them entirely.

We also talk about cybernetic commerce and how technology can interface with informal markets around money, by enabling digital transactions, energy, by boosting transparency in supply chains, and labor, by facilitating cross-border trade.

[00:00] - Introduction

[3:04] - An overview of Africa's S-Curves
[13:31] - Augmentation vs. displacement in informal markets
[20:45] - Points of inflection on Africa’s S-Curves

[38:45] - Opportunities in cybernetic commerce

[44:02] - Digital commerce business models

[1:02:06] - First principles of S-Curves

Recommendations:

• Africa’s S Curves. Stephen’s thesis on Africa’s tech opportunity.
• Chasing Outliers: Why Context Matters for Early Stage Investing in Africa. A report I co-authored on VC investing in Africa.

Connect on social media:

• Stephen Deng on LinkedIn and @mrstephendeng on X
• DFS Lab on LinkedIn and @TheDFSLab on X
• The Trajectory Africa on LinkedIn and @trajectoryafrica.bsky.social on Bluesky
• Tayo Akinyemi on LinkedIn, X, and @TayoAkinyemi.bsky.social on Bluesky