Kesten Green: “Net Zero Makes No Sense” | Tom Nelson Pod #315

Tom Nelson

Dr. Green is co-director of forecastingprinciples.com, a site promoting evidenced-based forecasting, and is a pioneer of methods to predict the decisions people will make in conflict situations such as occur in wars and in business.

Green became interested in climate forecasting when he realized the dire predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others might result in policies that would cause great harm to people. He decided to use his knowledge of forecasting to investigate whether predictions of dangerous manmade global warming were based on scientific forecasting methods.

00:00 Introduction to Kesten Green and Climate Forecasting

01:12 Initial Climate Forecasting Efforts

03:24 Collaboration with Willie Soon

04:54 Scientific Method and Alternative Hypotheses

05:41 Critique of IPCC Climate Models

06:15 Summary of Findings: Net Zero Makes No Sense

13:21 IPCC's Attribution Studies and Solar Variables

15:14 Challenges in Detection and Attribution of Temperature Trends

18:57 Testing Predictive Validity of Climate Models

34:29 Urban Heat Island Effect and Rural Temperature Anomalies

43:43 Benchmarking and Simplicity in Forecasting

51:56 Analyzing Rural Temperature Forecasts

53:17 Comparing IPCC and Independent Models

54:23 Forecasting with Extended Data

59:03 Evaluating Model Reliability

59:56 Statistical Fit vs. Predictive Validity

01:01:17 Exploring Model Estimation Techniques

01:05:23 Anthropogenic vs. Natural Influences

01:28:04 Challenges in Scientific Publishing

01:33:31 Conclusions on Climate Models

01:36:21 Historical Environmental Alarms

https://kestencgreen.com/

https://heartland.org/about-us/who-we-are/kesten-green/

About the Green & Soon (2025) paper: https://x.com/cohler/status/1924777203298140608

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