SI328: Year-End Roundtable: The Future of Trend Following and Market Dynamics (Part 2)

Top Traders Unplugged

#Business News #Trend Following #With Niels KaastrupLarsen #Trading #Business #News

38:30

Chef Shuai Wang was the runner-up on the 22nd season of Bravo’s Top Chef and is the force behind two standout restaurants in Charleston, South Carolina—Jackrabbit Filly and King BBQ—where he brings together the flavors of his childhood in Beijing and the spirit of the South in some pretty unforgettable ways. He grew up just a short walk from Tiananmen Square, in a tiny home with no electricity or running water, where his grandmother often cooked over charcoal. Later, in Queens, New York, his mom taught herself to cook—her first dishes were a little salty, but they were always made with love. And somewhere along the way, Shuai learned that cooking wasn’t just about food—it was about taking care of people. After years working in New York kitchens, he made his way to Charleston and started building something that feels entirely his own. Today, we’re talking about how all those experiences come together on the plate, the family stories behind his cooking, and what it’s been like to share that journey on national TV. For more info visit: southernliving.com/biscuitsandjam Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices…

about a year ago 1:06:48

MP3•Episode home

Join us for Part 2 of our Year-End discussion between all of the hosts on the Systematic Investor Series where we debate the trends and themes shaping the investment landscape heading into 2025. The episode highlights the significance of social media and podcasts in increasing awareness of systematic investment strategies, as well as the challenges posed by evolving market dynamics. Key topics include the role of the U.S. dollar under the new Trump administration, the impact of trend-following strategies, and the ongoing debate about replication in managed futures. We will also share our outrageous predictions for 2025, including insights into the potential resurgence of alternative investments and shifts in global economic relations. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - How social media, podcasts etc. helped us to raise awareness of our products

07:26 - How we decompose risk and uncertainty and how we incorporate it in our thinking

13:20 - The world has gone completely mad

19:30 - The outlook for replication strategies

28:22 - How will the trend following industry look in 5 years?

42:02 - Has the appetite for alternatives destroyed alternatives?

50:16 - Where will the dollar go the coming year?

59:14 - Our outrageous predictions for 2025

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

907 episodes

SI328: Year-End Roundtable: The Future of Trend Following and Market Dynamics (Part 2)

Top Traders Unplugged

653 subscribers

published about a year ago

MP3•Episode home

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - How social media, podcasts etc. helped us to raise awareness of our products

07:26 - How we decompose risk and uncertainty and how we incorporate it in our thinking

13:20 - The world has gone completely mad

19:30 - The outlook for replication strategies

28:22 - How will the trend following industry look in 5 years?

42:02 - Has the appetite for alternatives destroyed alternatives?

50:16 - Where will the dollar go the coming year?

59:14 - Our outrageous predictions for 2025

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

907 episodes

#Business News #Trend Following #With Niels KaastrupLarsen #Trading #Business #News

All episodes

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI358: Why the Best Trend Models Might Be the Simplest Ones ft. Tom Wrobel & Andrew Beer 1:13:29

4 days ago1:13:29

1:13:29

Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter . Follow Tom on LinkedIn, Episode TimeStamps: 01:52 - What has caught our attention recently? 06:11 - Industry performance update 07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment 09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper 14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk 17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies 22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed? 28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets? 33:35 - The structure of an allocator 36:12 - How much tracking error is acceptable in replication? 42:14 - Trend is doing better than people expect 43:49 - The Voldemort of the trend following space 51:02 - Are ultra diversified portfolio merely a party trick? 56:25 - The challenges of slippage and implementation cost 01:03:49 - It all comes down to the predictability of trends 01:06:23 - Let's talk about the data, please 01:09:01 - Common misunderstandings of trend 01:12:12 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
TTU150: Scarcity, Security, and the Shift to Soil ft. Artem Milinchuk 1:06:04

7 days ago1:06:04

1:06:04

What happens when an overlooked asset becomes essential? Artem Milinchuk returns to share how farmland, long seen as niche... is quietly stepping into the center of long-term portfolios. He and Niels discuss what’s changed since 2020: rising inflation, tighter capital, a demographic handoff reshaping land ownership, and how tech is altering both the economics and culture of agriculture. This isn’t about chasing yield. It’s about owning what endures. From almonds to avocados, tariffs to treasuries, and legacy to liquidity, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at an asset class rooted in necessity, and poised for relevance. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Artem on X. Check out these resources about farmland investing Episode Timestamps: 02:24 - A recap on our previous conversation 06:22 - What has changed about their strategy since our last conversation (in 2020)? 10:28 - How does farmland investing actually generate income? 12:32 - How does farmland investing work and operate? 15:28 - Geopolitical volatility - How FarmTogether deals with tariffs 19:00 - How different types of crops carries different types of risk 23:22 - A deep dive into the volatility behind farmland investing 27:40 - What is a fair level of volatility to expect from farmland investing? 30:49 - The tech side of agriculture - where are we heading? 33:58 - Major changes in agriculture on the horizon 40:22 - How much money has been allocated to farmland investing today? 41:58 - Are institutions sleeping on farmland investing? 43:40 - Liquidity and fees - what can you expect from farmland investing? 46:00 - Sustainability and profitability - 2 sides of the same coin 49:08 - How FarmTogether deals with drought and limited water supplies 52:26 - How political pressure impacts agriculture 56:12 - Are we entering an agricultural supercycle? 58:56 - How the billionaires are approaching farmland 01:00:26 - The most important question(s) to ask in farmland investing 01:03:59 - The biggest challenge for family offices today Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI357: Liquidity, Leverage, and the Lie of Calm ft. Cem Karsan 1:29:58

11 days ago1:29:58

1:29:58

As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn’t. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China’s resource diplomacy, AI’s quiet dislocation of white-collar work, and the rising fragility from concentration across assets, brokers, and narratives. This is a conversation about setup, not outcome... and the traps hiding in plain sight. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 01:19 - What has been on our radar recently? 03:30 - Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode! 05:04 - China is taking the long view - and succeeding with it 07:04 - Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth 08:30 - The risk of high stock trading firm concentration 11:01 - Industry performance update 13:33 - Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment? 24:59 - Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment 30:33 - What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event? 32:28 - The impact of tariffs - what do the numbers tell us? 41:21 - Is a firing on the horizon for Powell? 46:53 - Inflation is becoming hard to hedge 56:15 - The Emperor's New Clothes moment 58:05 - Addressing Paul Jones' asset allocation 01:03:35 - Will AI make us all unemployed? 01:10:13 - Is Libertarianism is a bigger threat to the US than Socialism? 01:13:28 - Where are markets heading according to Karsan? 01:28:27 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
UGO04: CNBC Legend on the Price of Losing Price ft. Rick Santelli 44:10

14 days ago44:10

44:10

Rick Santelli joins Cem Karsan for a conversation that cuts through the noise. From the floor of the Cboe to the era of central bank primacy, Santelli reflects on how markets have been reshaped... not just by technology or policy, but by the loss of honest signals. They cover the Fed’s shift from restraint to control, the unintended consequences of zero rates, and why housing, credit, and the long bond may be nearing a breaking point. This isn’t a retrospective. It’s a clear warning from someone who’s seen what happens when incentives go unchecked. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter . Follow Rick on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:02 - Introduction to the UGO series 01:26 - Introduction to Rick Santelli 05:16 - The first trade Santelli ever made 06:32 - The historical performance of gold 08:39 - Why did Santelli move to interest rates? 10:28 - How technology impacts the way we invest 13:30 - A shadow Fed president 14:46 - How Alan Greenspan changed everything 18:47 - We are starting to pay the price of overspending 22:04 - Money printing - a daisy chain of a closed circuit 23:50 - How do we get out of debt and how does it end? 29:06 - How do you invest wisely in today's economy? 36:48 - Cost of credit: The lurking financial threat 39:03 - How young people should set themselves up for retirement Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI356: The Anatomy of a CTA Recovery ft. Katy Kaminski 1:03:48

18 days ago1:03:48

1:03:48

Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets break, and slower when they don’t, and what that asymmetry reveals about the current cycle. They unpack copper’s historic 1-day move, the role of China in CTA return dispersion, and what slower, replication-based strategies might be capturing that others aren’t. This episode isn’t about defending trend - it’s about understanding what environments it needs, and what signals suggest we’re getting closer. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn . Episode TimeStamps: 00:48 - What has been on our radar recently? 07:43 - Crazy moves in US copper 09:45 - Industry performance update 14:31 - How should we approach the current drawdowns in managed futures? 23:01 - Why trend following is struggling at the moment 31:22 - Rebalancing in trend following is key 33:57 - A better alternative trend following? 37:32 - The different types of impact to markets and how it reflects on the CTA industry 44:41 - The key variables for understanding regimes 53:21 - Replication is beating the benchmarks that they are trying to replicate 58:16 - Mechanical vs. regression based replication 59:33 - Defining tracking error Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
ALO30: The Quiet Rewire of Portfolio Construction ft. Cian Walsh 1:04:30

21 days ago1:04:30

1:04:30

Cian Walsh, Head of Hedge Funds and Private Debt at Formue, joins Alan Dunne to explore what it means to allocate capital when the macro regime, client expectations, and the structure of markets are all in flux. He explains why the 60/40 model obscures more than it reveals, how he is adapting institutional frameworks for thousands of private clients, and what changes when you view hedge funds not as a bucket, but as a function. From the discipline of sizing trend in a sideways regime to the slow shift from vintage private credit to evergreen, this is a conversation about building portfolios that can hold together when the ground moves. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter . Follow Cian on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Cian Walsh 05:30 - How does institutional asset allocation stand out? 06:39 - Asset allocation in a shifting regime 09:33 - A move towards mass customization 10:26 - The 60/40 portfolio is dying - what is next? 13:28 - The challenges of implementing a total portfolio approach 17:16 - Dealing with underperforming strategies 20:09 - More growth or more all-weather? 23:30 - Why Walsh believes in systematic trading 28:51 - Do Walsh hold any long volatility strategies? 30:04 - Walsh's process for selecting managers 36:55 - Managing fees and the rise of Pod Shops 39:54 - Their approach to early stage allocation and risk 42:03 - How manager selection differs from asset allocation 44:32 - Their process of upholding expected returns and performance 46:55 - Balancing hedge fund allocation and private credit 50:20 - Does hedge fund allocation call for more caution? 52:46 - How to avoid sitting short on liquidity 54:48 - The pitfalls of the private credit space 58:19 - Will credit markets outperform growth equity markets? 01:00:27 - Walsh's key advice and book recommendations for other investors Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI355: Drawdowns Don’t Lie, But They May Mislead ft. Alan Dunne 45:57

25 days ago45:57

45:57

Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend followers caught between sharp reversals and shrinking conviction. They explore how sentiment, structure, and speed are shaping today’s trading environment, and what most investors still underestimate about liquidity, macro policy, and risk. With fresh research in hand, they ask whether drawdowns are misunderstood, if diversification has become an illusion, and why clarity often emerges only after the pain. We do recognize that we had some technical issues with this recording and appreciate you for sticking with us. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 00:57 - What has caught our attention recently? 04:38 - Industry performance update 07:38 - Is trend thriving? 09:57 - Dunne's global macro overview 16:33 - A catastrophic year for the dollar 18:12 - Is this time different for trend following drawdowns? 27:26 - The value of long term track records 34:30 - Is trend following flawed? 37:48 - What are investors actually interested in? 44:32 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
OI17: The End of the Bull Market: What’s Next for Equities? ft. Asim Ghaffar 1:09:02

28 days ago1:09:02

1:09:02

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organizational processes of running a hedge fund business is critical and how it can add long-term value to the business. He also describes why sales and branding are key components to a successful investment management business, and how AG Capital connects with clients and prospective investors. In the second part of the conversation, Asam and Moritz speak about AG Capital’s style of trading, how they position size, why they take concentrated positions, how their methods differ from those of systematic trend following funds, and what their current long-term and short-term investment themes are, touching on gold, Bitcoin, copper, natural gas, and some other markets. ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to Asim Ghaffar and AG Capital 06:48 - What defines a great hedge fund? 12:13 - How do you find clients as a hedge fund? 18:32 - Creating world class in-house operations 25:32 - Ghaffar's framework for building portfolios 35:05 - How Ghaffar differs from a classical trend follower 39:16 - Why Ghaffar enforces a fixed number of positions 41:40 - What is so cool about stocks? 46:16 - Why Ghaffar sometimes decreases an exposure 51:36 - How Ghaffar approaches gold 54:05 - Why AG Capital stays away from Bitcoin 01:01:54 - Is China actually more democratic than the US? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver 1:13:24

5 weeks ago1:13:24

1:13:24

With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-world volatility, and how systematic managers can fool themselves into thinking they’re diversified. It’s a conversation about structure, discipline, and why most edges today come from avoiding mistakes rather than discovering secrets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - What has caught out attention recently? 01:23 - Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable 02:59 - Fed is rolling back important capital rules 05:22 - What the shipping industry reveals about the economy 07:33 - Industry performance update 16:00 - Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading? 27:24 - Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following 37:03 - Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combine systematic structure with discretionary judgment? 41:52 - Are all managers the same, although we all claim to be different? 52:26 - Why are bond investors contrarian while equity investors extrapolate? 01:01:59 - "What if you missed the best days of a market?" 01:11:53 - Rounding up Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott 1:15:26

5 weeks ago1:15:26

1:15:26

Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor scarcity, and immigration limits are quietly rewiring the system. Inflation may not fall the way people expect. Profit margins may not hold. And capital may start flowing away from the US for the first time in a generation. This isn’t a cycle call. It’s a question of what kind of economy we are becoming—and whether portfolios built for the past can survive what’s coming. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter . Follow Bob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:58 - Revisiting the Income Driven Expansion 12:30 - Inflation Dynamics and Economic Policy 15:31 - The Dynamics of Labor and Immigration 27:58 - Strategic Decoupling and Its Implications 32:04 - The Economic Implications of Manufacturing in China 42:13 - Economic Growth and Market Dynamics 48:28 - The Evolving Landscape of Investment Strategies 53:25 - Understanding Alpha Strategies and Portfolio Diversification 01:01:10 - The Dynamics of Hedge Fund Strategies and Correlation 01:09:34 - Global Macro Trends and Financial Decoupling Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git 1:08:30

6 weeks ago1:08:30

1:08:30

Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlook strategies that offer the most structural value. Through a series of new research papers, they examine how negative correlation, volatility, and capital efficiency can outweigh standalone performance, and why trend following continues to challenge conventional assumptions. It’s a conversation about construction over conviction, contribution over headline returns, and the gap between what improves a portfolio and what investors are willing to own. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:13 - Introduction and latest update 07:57 - Trend Following score card 12:38 - Latest paper from R.G. Niederhoffer 26:45 - Latest insights from Quantica Capital 36:55 - Review of Soc Gen's latest report on the state of the CTA Industry 44:52 - The Science and Practice of Trend-following Systems paper by Artur Sepp Resources discussed in this Episode: LINK SI353: From Tariffs to Trends LINK SI353: Keeping up with the Trend-Followers LINK SI353: The Science & Practice of Trend-Following Systems Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
GM83: The Risk We Forgot to Price ft. Barry Eichengreen 1:01:55

6 weeks ago1:01:55

1:01:55

Barry Eichengreen joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at a system losing its anchors. The dollar’s standing, long insulated by trust and habit, now faces a different kind of test... one shaped less by challengers abroad than by fractures at home. They explore how rising debt, political entropy, and institutional strain are converging in ways that markets are only beginning to price. From the quiet retreat of safe haven flows to the uneasy future of central bank independence, this is a conversation about slow shifts with fast consequences, and what happens when credibility, not currency, becomes the liability. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter . Follow Barry on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:09 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen 03:51 - The Future of the Dollar: Concerns and Predictions 14:29 - Fiscal Challenges and Policy Responses 33:04 - Analyzing Economic Policies and Their Impacts 49:18 - Global Economic Perspectives: Trade Wars and Currency Alternatives 56:46 - The Future of Global Currency Systems Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI352: Trend Systems Under Strain ft. Nick Baltas 1:03:38

7 weeks ago1:03:38

1:03:38

Nick Baltas is back with Niels for a conversation that sits at the intersection of technology, uncertainty, and discipline. As AI-generated data floods the system and market reversals grow sharper, the challenge isn’t just strategy design — it’s deciding what still counts as signal. They explore how systematic managers are rethinking volatility targets, why certain constraints persist in institutional portfolios, and what recent underperformance may actually be revealing. This episode is less about solutions than about orientation: how to stay aligned when the tools evolve faster than the terrain, and when conviction must coexist with doubt. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 00:01 - Introduction to Systematic Investing 02:11 - The Impact of AI and Machine Learning on Data Analysis 07:05 - The Impact of AI on Education and Examination Policies 12:06 - Transitioning Perspectives on Democracy and Markets 21:49 - Dynamic Volatility Targeting in Portfolio Management 24:24 - Exploring Volatility and Leverage 29:50 - Understanding Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics 36:29 - Exploring Investment Constraints and Strategies 45:04 - Rethinking Investment Constraints 49:36 - Strategic Allocations and Market Timing 56:11 - Market Dynamics and Trend Following 01:00:09 - The Evolution of Systematic Investing Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
UGO03: This Isn’t 2008. That’s the Problem ft. Benn Eifert 45:51

7 weeks ago45:51

45:51

Back on the Cboe floor, Cem Karsan sits down with Benn Eifert to trace the fault lines shaping today’s volatility regime. They dig into why market structure, not just macro, is driving outcomes... from the reflexive cycles of implied vol to the growing influence of structured product flows and zero-day options. With correlations breaking down and dispersion rising, Benn makes the case that path matters more than magnitude. It’s a conversation about what happens when liquidity fragments, when the Fed can’t step in, and when legacy playbooks stop working. Quietly technical, deeply contextual, this one rewards a careful listen. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 00:11 - Introduction... setting the stage 03:01 - Understanding Options and Market Dynamics 09:47 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Administration 11:41 - Market Volatility and Structural Changes in Trading 19:00 - The Impact of Structural Changes on Market Volume 26:13 - Understanding Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation 30:23 - The Impact of Interest Rates on Investment Strategies 34:21 - Understanding Zero DTE Options and Their Market Impact 39:50 - Economic Outlook: Tariffs and Interest Rates Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan 1:08:49

8 weeks ago1:08:49