Each week Doug Hoyes talks to industry experts about debt, money, and personal finance. Don't be confused; listen as the guest experts cut through the jargon and share practical advice.
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.
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115 episodes
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.
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115 episodes
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Seismic Shift Markets Are Missing | Practical Lessons from Ben Hunt & Grant Williams 1:05:57
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we dive deep into some of the most thought-provoking ideas from two of the most original minds in investing: Ben Hunt and Grant Williams. Through a curated selection of powerful clips, we explore how markets have transformed from mechanisms of capital allocation to platforms of narrative and speculation. Ben and Grant challenge conventional wisdom, question the stories we tell ourselves about investing, and propose frameworks for navigating a radically different market landscape going forward. Whether it's the evolution of CEO incentives, the lifecycle of narratives, or why staying rich is harder than getting rich, this episode is packed with timeless insights. Topics Covered: Why what worked for 40 years may not work anymore The market as a political utility and what that really means The disconnection between stock prices and real businesses How narratives shape market behavior and prices The language of growth vs. value in investingThe CEO’s evolving role as a storytellerUsing the narrative lifecycle as an investment framework Speculation vs. investing and how to tell the difference How Ben Hunt applies the minimax regret framework to life decisions…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Diversification Delusion | The Risk that Leaves Both Stocks and Bonds Exposed 59:47
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, Jack and Matt revisit one of the most debated topics in investing: the fate of the classic 60/40 portfolio. Drawing on insights from some of the smartest minds in finance—Bob Elliott, Adam Butler, Warren Pies, Rick Ferri, Jared Dillian, Andrew Beer, and Cliff Asness—they explore whether the traditional stock/bond mix still makes sense in today's environment or if investors need to rethink diversification, risk, and portfolio construction entirely. With perspectives ranging from strong defenses of simplicity to sophisticated alternative strategies, this episode is a deep dive into what investors should consider in building resilient portfolios going forward. Topics Covered: Why the 60/40 portfolio worked—and why it might not anymore The impact of inflation, liquidity, and regime change on asset allocation Risk parity and quadrant-based frameworks for understanding market environments The argument for real assets: real estate and commodities An overview of the Awesome Portfolio and its performance profile The rise of managed futures and how they improve diversification The psychology of investing in alternatives (and sticking with them) Rebalancing and the importance of sizing when adding alternatives Cliff Asness on high-volatility alternatives and long-term risk-taking How to think through alternatives as your portfolio grows…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Irrecoverable Error: Risk, Ruin, and the Rules of Wealth | Practical Lessons from Guy Spier 1:06:31
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski dive deep into the timeless investing wisdom of Guy Spier. Drawing from Spier’s interviews on both Excess Returns and Talking Billions, they explore crucial ideas about investing, risk, decision-making, and living a meaningful life. From understanding why letting your winners run can enhance returns to redefining true success, this episode is packed with practical insights for both investors and anyone seeking a richer, more thoughtful life.Topics Covered:Why holding your winners can be essential to long-term success The myth of the Fidelity “dead investor” study and what it teachesRisk, ruin, and why preserving capital matters more than getting richLessons from multi-generational wealth and building lasting fortunesUnderstanding the true cost of tinkering with a portfolioDefining your circle of competence — and updating it over time How to avoid catastrophic financial outcomesRethinking what success really means beyond money Aligning your inner and outer self to find freedom and authenticity Managing other people’s money with care, respect, and humility Learning from mistakes and the importance of reputation The priceless value of community and true friendships…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Dark Side of Value Investing: Practical Lessons from Aswath Damodaran 1:08:07
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedJoin Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski as they play our favorite clips from both the Excess Returns and Talking Billions podcast interviews with Aswath Damodaran. This conversation unpacks Damodaran’s timeless insights on navigating uncertainty, embracing the process of investing, and finding comfort in a volatile market. From the ritualistic allure of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting to the pitfalls of factor investing, Main Topics Covered:The dangers of rigid, ritualistic value investing and the Berkshire Hathaway meeting’s cult-like atmosphere, contrasted with its networking value. Embracing uncertainty as a feature of investing, not a bug, and avoiding unhealthy coping mechanisms like denial or outsourcing. The limitations of factor investing, emphasizing the need to bring unique value to the table to achieve excess returns.The stock market as a reflection of real-world business value, not a place where money is made, and the futility of fighting market dynamics. The importance of loving the investing process over obsessing about beating the market, with diversification as a safeguard against hubris. Balancing comfort investments with high-risk, high-reward opportunities to build a resilient portfolio. The rise of passive investing and its potential to create opportunities for active investors as fewer people seek market mistakes. The "sleep test" for investors—framing choices with gratitude and perspective to maintain peace of mind.…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Tariffs Are Here. The Market is Down. Here is What It Means for Investors 1:05:02
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, dive into the complex world of tariffs, national debt, and economic policies under the current administration. With the S&P down 4% and markets reacting to recent policy shifts, we bring you insights from our previous interviews with Cullen Roche and Andy Constan to break down these pressing issues. This episode is designed for everyday investors and money managers alike, offering a balanced, practical perspective on navigating short-term market pain for potential long-term gains. Tune in as we hash out the facts, explore the implications, and share strategies to keep your portfolio steady amid the storm. Main Topics Covered: Tariffs Explained: A deep dive into how tariffs function as a corporate tax, their impact on domestic companies, and the challenges of passing costs to consumers. Market Reactions and Short-Term Pain: Analysis of the current market downturn and how policies like tariffs, immigration, and spending cuts contribute to anti-growth sentiment. Long-Term Goals of Policy Shifts: Discussion on the administration’s aim to onshore manufacturing and critical technologies, and the trade-offs involved. National Debt Concerns: Perspectives on whether the U.S. national debt poses an immediate crisis or a creeping inflationary risk, with insights from Cullen Roche and Andy Constan. DOGE Initiative: Examination of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a propaganda tool and realistic estimates of potential budget savings.Investment Strategies: Practical advice on staying long-term focused, rebalancing portfolios, and seizing opportunities during market volatility.…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Most Great Traders Failed First: These Key Rules Saved Them | Practical Lessons from Jack Schwager 49:14
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, Matt and Jack dive into the timeless wisdom of Jack Schwager, renowned author of the Market Wizards series. Drawing from two insightful interviews with Schwager, they explore key lessons from some of the greatest traders he’s interviewed, like Paul Tudor Jones and Steve Cohen, and unpack how these principles apply not only to trading but also to long-term investing and life. From risk management to overcoming failure, this episode blends Schwager’s expertise with Jack and Matt’s commentary, offering valuable takeaways for investors of all kinds. Main Topics Covered: Paul Tudor Jones’ approach to avoiding complacency by evaluating your portfolio as if you started it today.Steve Cohen’s strategy of cutting positions in half when uncertain to manage indecision effectively. The commonality of early failures among top traders and the resilience needed to learn from them. Debunking the myth that good money management can salvage a poor trading system—why edge is essential. Jack Schwager’s personal realization that he wasn’t suited for trading and how he found his strength in curating trading wisdom. The necessity of adapting trading strategies as markets evolve over time. How Schwager found discretionary trading less emotionally taxing than systematic approaches. Stanley Druckenmiller’s bold position sizing under George Soros’ influence and when to break the rules. Joel Greenblatt’s lesson on waiting for the right opportunity rather than forcing trades. Simplifying risk management with straightforward rules that anyone can follow. The value investor’s dilemma of buying more as prices drop versus cutting losses. How technology, like social media, has opened new trading strategies unavailable in the past. Position sizing as an extension of risk management, determined by acceptable loss levels.…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 75% of Investors Will Disagree with These Ideas: Evidence Says They are True 55:37
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we dive into the most controversial takesfrom our podcast guests. Inspired by a brilliant question from Meb Faber(thanks, Meb!), we’ve compiled insights from top financial minds to explorebeliefs that challenge conventional wisdom. From debunking dividend hype toreimagining the role of options and AI in investing, this episode is packedwith thought-provoking perspectives. Main Topics Covered: - Meb Faber challenges the obsession with dividends - Mike Green introduces Goodhart’s Law to investing,suggesting that once a metric is tracked, its effectiveness diminishes. - Jim Paulsen downplays the importance of monetary policyand valuation, emphasizing Main Street sentiment over Wall Street metrics. - Ben Carlson defends retail investors, claiming they’rebetter behaved than ever thanks to modern tools and advice. - Dan Rasmussen disputes the predictability of growth,asserting past financials reveal little about a company’s future. - Lindsay Bell and Shannon Saccocia advocate for learningthrough failure and a forward-looking, futurist mindset in investing. - Cem Karsan flips the script, arguing options are the trueunderlying asset, not derivatives. - Andrew Beer champions simplicity over complexity, citingthe success of straightforward hedge fund bets. - Jason Buck questions the existence of long-term alpha,favoring a diversified, rebalanced approach. - Ian Cassel challenges the low-turnover mantra, suggestinghigh turnover can work. - Scott McBride dismisses the need for catalysts in valueinvesting, focusing on valuation and governance. - Larry Swedroe critiques low-volatility strategies, arguingthey only shine when paired with value. - Kris Sidial highlights the importance of trading psyche, aview often dismissed by quant-driven peers. - Kai Wu predicts AI will enhance, not replace, financialjobs by handling rote tasks and freeing humans for creativity. - Doug Clinton forecasts a multi-trillion-dollar AI-poweredasset management industry within a decade. - Meb Faber (again!) flips the narrative on internationalinvesting, showing it’s a winner for 49 out of 50 countries.…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Great Moderation is Over: Here is What Comes Next | Practical Lessons from Liz Ann Sonders 52:43
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we break down key lessons from our conversation with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, exploring timeless investment principles and market dynamics that remain relevant regardless of current market conditions. From the end of the "Great Moderation" era to practical insights about market timing and portfolio management, Liz Ann's wisdom offers valuable perspective for investors of all levels. Main topics covered: • The transition from the "Great Moderation" era to what Liz Ann calls the "Temperamental Era" - understanding how inflation volatility and market dynamics are shifting • Why "rolling recessions" matter and how different sectors of the economy can experience downturns at different times • The limitations of valuation metrics as market timing tools and why they shouldn't be used for short-term decisions • How uncertainty is a constant in markets and why claiming "above average uncertainty" is often misleading • Important lessons from Martin Zweig about market timing versus trend following • The dangers of benchmark obsession and why comparing everything to the S&P 500 can lead to poor investment decisions • Why "all in" or "all out" market timing strategies rarely work and the importance of disciplined portfolio management • Practical advice for handling concentrated stock positions and the challenges of rebalancing during market gains…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Value Investing: Dead or Just Misunderstood? | Special Guest: Tobias Carlisle 1:07:59
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into the state of value investing with special guest Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds and author of multiple books on value investing. In this insightful conversation, they look at some of the most insightful clips from our guests including Cliff Asness, Aswath Damodaran, Kai Wu, Scott McBride, Larry Swedroe and Dan Rasmussen. They explore why value investing has struggled in recent years, examine value spreads, and discuss whether this time is truly different. Tobias offers a compelling case for why value investors might finally see their patience rewarded. Topics covered: • Value spreads and how they've evolved from historically consistent ranges to unprecedented widths in recent years • Why value doesn't necessarily need catalysts or multiple expansion to generate returns • The impact of intangible assets on value metrics and whether traditional valuation methods need updating • How indexing and passive investing have affected market dynamics and created potential opportunities • The underperformance of international stocks compared to US markets and whether that trend might reverse • Why the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks have defied mean reversion and if that can continue • How to maintain conviction as a value investor during extended periods of underperformance…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this compilation episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler bring you the most valuable insights from our interviews with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds and former head of Ray Dalio's research team at Bridgewater. 🔑 Key Topics Covered: Markets and Macroeconomic Reality Elliott dismantles the notion that markets can permanently detach from economic fundamentals, walking through how earnings, margins, and wage growth are all interconnected. He explains why claims of "this time it's different" rarely hold true over longer time horizons. The "Big or Small" Framework Learn the powerful yet simple framework Elliott used at Bridgewater to tackle complex problems, including how he assessed the 2008 housing crisis with the straightforward question: "This housing problem, big or small?" Income-Driven vs. Debt-Driven Economic Cycles Discover why the post-COVID economy behaved differently than many expected and why the Fed's rate hikes didn't crash the economy – Elliott explains the crucial difference between income-driven and debt-driven economic cycles. True Diversification Beyond 60/40 Elliott challenges conventional portfolio construction, explaining why the traditional 60/40 portfolio worked well only during specific economic conditions of the past 40 years and offers practical advice for genuine diversification in an uncertain future. Wage Growth and Inflation Understand the tight relationship between wage growth and inflation, and why inflation can't meaningfully decline while wage growth remains elevated without productivity improvements. The Fed's Decision-Making Process Elliott provides insight into why the Federal Reserve appears "behind the curve," explaining how its consensus-driven, backward-looking data approach creates policy delays by design. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just beginning your financial journey, Elliott's analytical frameworks and practical insights will help you think more clearly about markets, economic cycles, and portfolio construction in an increasingly complex financial landscape. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into unique perspectives on markets and investing through the lens of Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal's innovative research approaches. They explore: A fresh take on the 60/40 portfolio debate and why the death of this strategy may be greatly exaggerated How to interpret market breadth and retail sentiment through new indicators like inverse ETF volume Why Treasury actions may be just as important as Fed policy in today's marketsThe critical relationship between bond yields, supply/demand dynamics, and what it means for investors Practical insights on AI's impact on productivity and investment research Why certain market indicators that worked in the past may need updating for today's environment Warren and Fernando bring data-driven, original analysis to these topics, offering viewers a unique perspective that goes beyond traditional market commentary. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this episode provides actionable insights on current market dynamics and evolving investment frameworks. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Practical Lessons from Cem Karsan | Inside the Hidden Forces Moving Markets 1:04:09
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode of Excess Returns, Matt and Jack explore key lessons from one of our most popular guests, Cem Karsan. Through selected clips from multiple interviews, they unpack Karsan's unique insights on markets, investing, and risk management. The discussion covers critical concepts including: The fundamental importance of supply, demand, and liquidity in markets Why thinking probabilistically is essential for both investing and life How different time frames affect investment decisions and market dynamics The impact of options trading on market volatility A fascinating analysis of election year returns that challenges conventional wisdom Perspectives on retirement and viewing work as an extension of self Whether you're an active trader, long-term investor, or financial professional, this episode offers valuable frameworks for understanding markets and risk. Jack and Matt break down complex concepts into actionable insights, showing how Karsan's options trading background provides unique perspectives that can benefit investors of all types. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode, Matt and Jack break down key insights from our interview with market strategist Jim Paulsen. Paulsen offers unique perspectives on how markets have evolved over his 40-year career, from the days when investors checked bank signs for daily Dow quotes to today's high-speed algorithmic trading environment. Key topics covered: Why traditional market valuation metrics may need updating for the modern era A novel way to measure productivity through "profit per job" and its implications for market valuations Why Main Street confidence has remained low despite strong markets, and what this means for investors How the Federal Reserve's approach to communication and policy has transformed Why traditional recession indicators failed in the recent cycle The conversation features numerous "aha moments" where Paulsen reframes conventional market wisdom in enlightening new ways. His candid insights on what really drives markets and the limited role of policy makers challenge common assumptions about investing.The hosts also explore Paulsen's humble yet profound advice for investors: focus on not disrupting the core 90% of your portfolio while seeking opportunities for outperformance with the remaining 10%. This episode offers valuable perspective for both professional and retail investors trying to navigate today's complex market environment. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into their conversation with Jason Buck about building truly robust investment portfolios that can withstand any market environment. Moving beyond the typical "stocks only go up" mentality, they explore critical concepts like: The real difference between offense and defense in portfolio construction Why treating your portfolio as savings rather than a get-rich-quick scheme is crucial Understanding real vs. nominal returns and why this distinction matters more than ever The dangers of U.S. market exceptionalism and what we can learn from other markets' struggles How to think about portfolio construction like building a championship sports team The critical concept of ergodicity and why averages can be deceiving Using colorful analogies from the Dallas Cowboys' infamous Herschel Walker trade to Dennis Rodman's overlooked impact on the Chicago Bulls, this episode breaks down complex investment concepts into actionable insights. Perfect for investors wanting to move beyond basic diversification and build portfolios ready for whatever the future holds. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this deep-dive conversation, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down key insights from their interview with Dr. Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street's most respected market strategists. The discussion explores how Yardeni's independent thinking and data-driven approach led him to correctly predict several major market developments in 2023-24, including the path of inflation and the absence of a widely-predicted recession. The hosts analyze Yardeni's unique framework for understanding market cycles, particularly how monetary, credit, and business cycles interact. They examine his explanation of why traditional recession indicators like yield curve inversions failed this time, and why focusing on labor market data proved more valuable. Yardeni's perspective on the Federal Reserve's evolution in handling financial crises offers crucial context for today's market environment. They discuss Yardeni's "Roaring 2020s" thesis, which predicts sustained economic growth driven by technological innovation and productivity gains. This optimistic outlook, first proposed at the start of the decade, has gained additional relevance with the emergence of AI and other transformative technologies. The conversation also delves into practical investment wisdom, including Yardeni's emphasis on quality dividend-growing stocks for long-term investors and the importance of maintaining healthy skepticism toward market consensus. Throughout the episode, Yardeni demonstrates how combining macroeconomic analysis with real-world observations leads to better investment decisions. Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting to learn about markets, this discussion offers valuable insights into how one of the industry's most successful strategists thinks about economics, market cycles, and long-term investing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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