E115: New Tariff Implications, DeepSeek and Open Source Analysis, and Meta’s Big Bets w/ Byrne Hobart

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the implications of recent tariffs, the impact of AI advancements like DeepSeek, Meta's investments in VR and AI, stock market dynamics, and differing perspectives on open-source AI models.

—

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse

—

RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:

🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast

—

SPONSORS:

☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine

📝 Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod

🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world.

💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

—

LINKS:

Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co

—

X / TWITTER:

@byrnehobart

@turpentinemedia

—

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

• Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods highlight tensions between using tariffs as negotiation tactics versus long-term economic strategy.

• China's Belt and Road Initiative is essentially branding for existing Chinese international infrastructure investments aimed at extending economic influence.

• DeepSeek's AI developments caused unexpected market reactions, with non-AI momentum stocks rising as investors unwound their AI-focused positions.

• Forward Deployed Engineers serve as crucial bridges between complex technical products and business implementation, helping evolve products based on real-world usage.

• Meta's significant capital expenditure on AI infrastructure represents a strategic shift from being purely asset-light to more capital-intensive.

• A fantasy stock-picking competition aims to identify investment talent outside traditional recruiting paths through various categories like small-cap, mid-size, and event-driven investments.

• The transition from asset-light to capital-intensive business models can actually strengthen a company's competitive position by making value harder to replicate.

• Meta's metaverse investment might be premature, but AR (rather than VR) could emerge as the dominant future interface.