E136: Trump V2: Tariffs, American Dynamism, Higher Ed | Byrne Hobart "Upstream" With Erik Torenberg podcast

34:02

Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, and Congressman Richie Torres discuss higher education, Palantir's fearless culture, and the importance of contrarianism in driving innovation at the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️The Hill & Valley The Hill & Valley podcast gives you an insider's look into tech and government, hearing from founders and operators of generational tech companies, elected representatives and policymakers, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/39s4MCyt1pOTQ8FjOAS4mi Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-hill-valley/id1692653857 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@HillValleyForum — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: The Hill & Valley Forum: https://www.thehillandvalleyforum.com/ The Hill & Valley Forum 2025 Agenda: https://x.com/zebulgar/status/1915128911274668364 — X / TWITTER: @RitchieTorres @RepRitchie @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Alex Karp and Congressman Richie Torres discuss higher education, Palantir's culture, and contrarianism at the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum. Torres praises Karp for his fearlessness and moral clarity in a world of fear and moral confusion. Karp attributes his outspokenness to a desire for cultural clarity, which he believes is essential for building disruptive products and attracting top talent. Karp criticizes elite educational institutions for fostering dysfunction and antisemitism, viewing it as a betrayal of progressive values. He describes the crisis in higher education as a return to a "pagan religion" that contradicts the principles of liberalism and cognitive clarity. Karp emphasizes the importance of "non-playbook players" in the U.S., individuals who innovate without a set guide, a rare asset driving technological disruption. He acknowledges tensions between Capitol Hill and Silicon Valley but believes their relationship is structurally better than in most countries. Karp expresses confidence in the U.S. government's ability to adapt to rapid technological change, though it must improve procurement and focus on meritocracy. He highlights the U.S.'s unique advantage in producing innovative tech companies, citing meritocracy, top immigrants, and elite schools as key factors. In the U.S.-China tech arms race, Karp believes the U.S. is ahead but risks falling behind if elite institutions remain dysfunctional. He addresses fears about generative AI, advocating for embracing it as critical for GDP growth and competitive advantage, while acknowledging the need for regulation. Karp sees Palantir’s success as a model for creating a fairer, more equitable world and predicts the company will grow significantly in the next 20 years.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E137: AI Safety vs Speed: Helen Toner Discusses OpenAI Board Experience, Regulatory Approaches, and Military AI [The Cognitive Revolution] 1:23:35

10 days ago1:23:35

1:23:35

This week on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode of The Cognitive Revolution. Nathan Labenz interviews Helen Toner, director at CSET, about her experiences with OpenAI, the concept of adaptation buffers for AI integration, and AI's role in military decision-making. They discuss the implications of AI development, the need for regulatory policies, and the geopolitical dynamics involving AI competition with China. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ The Cognitive Revolution The Cognitive Revolution is a podcast about AI where hosts Nathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg interview the builders on the edge of AI and explore the dramatic shift it will unlock over the next decades. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk?si=7357ec31ac424043&nd=1&dlsi=060a53f1d7be47ad Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431 — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Helen Toner's appearance on the TED AI show: https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_ai_show_what_really_went_down_at_openai_and_the_future_of_regulation_w_helen_toner Helen Toner's substack : https://helentoner.substack.com/ Additional recommended reads: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/nonproliferation-is-the-wrong-approach https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ai-for-military-decision-making/ https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/ai-regulation-s-champions-can-seize-common-ground-or-be-swept-aside https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/05/26/ai-firms-mustnt-govern-themselves-say-ex-members-of-openais-board — X / TWITTER: @hlntnr @labenz @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Helen Toner joined OpenAI's board in 2021, bringing AI policy expertise when AGI discussions were still uncommon. She confirms that rumors about QStar contributing to the board's decision to fire Sam Altman were completely false. Helen observes contradictions at OpenAI: safety-focused research papers alongside aggressive policy positions. For AI whistleblowers, she recommends clear disclosure standards rather than vague reporting guidelines. Helen introduced the concept of "adaptation buffers," noting that while frontier AI development gets more expensive, capabilities become cheaper to replicate once achieved. Rather than focusing on non-proliferation, Helen advocates using adaptation time to build societal resilience (like improving outbreak detection). She favors conditional slowdowns (based on risk mitigation) rather than arbitrary pauses or compute limits. For military AI applications, Helen's research identifies three key considerations: scope (how tightly bound the system is), data quality, and human-machine interaction design. Helen expresses skepticism about "AI war simulations," arguing military contexts have too many unknowns to be modeled like games. She suggests the shift in AI CEOs' rhetoric about China competition is "the path of least resistance" to argue against regulation. Helen acknowledges the difficulty of reaching stable international equilibrium around AI development with too many unknowns about what superintelligence would mean for political systems.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E136: Trump V2: Tariffs, American Dynamism, Higher Ed | Byrne Hobart 1:05:37

14 days ago1:05:37

1:05:37

In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the economic consequences of Trump's tariffs, OpenAI's recent innovations, and their implications for white collar work. They also explore the potential market shifts, the resilience of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the state of elite higher education institutions like Harvard in the current geopolitical climate. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Trump's tariff decision was spontaneous, causing market volatility and creating an incentive for China to negatively influence U.S. markets. Tariffs are inherently inflationary, functioning as a tax that results in higher consumer prices. Moving manufacturing away from China creates inefficiencies but provides strategic security by reducing dependency. The U.S. should focus on strategic manufacturing in areas like drones and rare earth processing. China has demographic disadvantages ("getting old before getting rich") that weaken its long-term position. OpenAI's memory feature creates user lock-in by personalizing responses based on user history. White-collar workers may face employment disruption similar to what blue-collar workers experienced with automation. The U.S. dollar's reserve currency status has a self-healing characteristic - crises often lead to increased dollar demand rather than abandonment.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E135: The Problem With Reserve Currencies and Switching to Crypto w/ Lyn Alden [From the Archives] 1:01:19

17 days ago1:01:19

1:01:19

This week on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg’s 2024 interview with Lyn Alden. Lyn discusses her book 'Broken Money', the impact of the global reserve currency, inflation, interest rates, and provides advice for navigating an uncertain economic future. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Broken Money: https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG8985FR Lyn’s website: https://www.lynalden.com/ — X / TWITTER: @LynAldenContact @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Lyn explains her book "Broken Money" provides a comprehensive global view of the 160 different currencies and monetary systems worldwide. She argues all monetary systems are essentially "ledger money" rather than just commodity or credit money. Lyn emphasizes how technology permanently shapes monetary systems, a perspective underexplored in academia. The telegraph was a crucial turning point, allowing information to move at the speed of light and shifting power toward centralized banks. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies enable peer-to-peer value transfer without centralized institutions. Crypto continues to challenge currency monopolies by letting people circumvent capital controls and save in alternatives to local currencies. The US dollar's reserve status creates structural trade deficits and contributes to deindustrialization. Reshoring manufacturing remains difficult while maintaining reserve currency status. Raising interest rates to combat inflation has become less effective as higher rates increase government interest expenses. With high debt-to-GDP ratios, fiscal deficits drive money supply growth more than bank lending. Future inflation depends on technological growth rates relative to money supply growth. Lyn advises owning real, scarce assets rather than treasury bonds. She warns that fighting technological disruption ultimately proves ineffective for governments.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E134: Atheism’s Decline, Consciousness, and The New Right w/ Ross Douthat 58:48

21 days ago58:48

58:48

Today on Upstream, Ross Douthat joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his new book 'Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious,' exploring the decline of new atheism, the intellectual defense of institutional religion, and the intersection between traditional Christianity, Silicon Valley, and modern materialism. This episode originally aired on Moment of Zen (April 12, 2025). — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik Torenberg, Dan Romero, Antonio Garcia Martinez and frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Ross Douthat: https://www.nytimes.com/column/ross-douthat Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious: https://www.zondervan.com/p/believe/ — X / TWITTER: @DouthatNYT @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Ross explains we're at a cultural inflection point where secularization has plateaued and there's evidence of religious revival. New atheism has declined as the world hasn't become more reasonable despite becoming less religious. Ross argues religion is intellectually defensible based on fine-tuning of the universe and the hard problem of consciousness. He contends that merely appreciating religion's social benefits isn't enough—genuine belief is necessary. The AI discussion explores whether consciousness might exist beyond materialist explanations. They examine tensions in the "New Right" between tech-optimists and religious traditionalists.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E133: China’s Energy Problem w/ Samo Burja 58:49

23 days ago58:49

58:49

Today on Upstream, we’re releasing a 2024 conversation between Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja. They discuss China's approach to energy security, exploring why China isn't pursuing energy independence despite significant oil production capability and the potential for further development. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Live Players Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ China Isn’t Pursuing Energy Independence: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/china-isnt-pursuing-energy-independence — X / TWITTER: @samoburja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E132: AI Managers, US vs China Analysis, and AI Art w/ Byrne Hobart 53:18

29 days ago53:18

53:18

Today on Upstream, we’re sharing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on April 1, 2025). Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the shifting dynamics of global trade between China and the US, the potential for AI to replace senior rather than junior roles in the workplace, and the economic structure of live entertainment markets like StubHub. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: US-China Trade Relations: There's an interesting role reversal where China is now championing free trade while the US has become more protectionist. China's Economic Challenges: Demographics are a crucial factor affecting China's economy - an aging population creates financial imbalances. AI's Impact on Work Hierarchy: Contrary to common assumptions, AI might replace senior rather than junior roles. While AI isn't a perfect substitute for mentorship, it provides "synthetic wisdom" without requiring equity stakes. StubHub and Pricing Dynamics: Entertainment businesses operate as "stacks of monopolies" (artists, venues) monetizing layers of perfect competition. AI-Generated Art ("Ghibli-fication"): The massive popularity of Studio Ghibli-style AI image generation demonstrated unexpected demand for AI services.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E131: Abundance Agenda, The New Right, and 2008 Retrospective w/ Noah Smith 1:09:57

4 weeks ago1:09:57

1:09:57

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss the Abundance Agenda by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, the impact of the 2008 recession, Obama's presidency, and shifts in political ideology, focusing on the 'New Right' and its cultural and economic implications, while also touching upon the economic recovery strategies post-2008. This episode originally aired on Econ102 (April 1, 2025) — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Econ102 with Noah Smith Keeping econ entertaining - Noahpinion author Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg break down business news and politics every week. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1696419056 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6q7Gn5lP8TTtBPuV1NJSGs Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@ECON102Podcast — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Abundance (by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson): https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482 The Clash of Civilizations (by Samuel Huntington): https://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/1451628978 Revolt of the Public (by Martin Gurri): https://www.amazon.com/Revolt-Public-Crisis-Authority-Millennium/dp/1732265143 Understanding America's New Right: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/understanding-americas-new-right American Factory: https://www.netflix.com/title/81090071 — X / TWITTER: @Noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: The "abundance agenda" is gaining unexpected traction among Democrats who see it as a unifying message rather than class warfare. Noah views the abundance agenda as appealing because it promises prosperity for all Americans regardless of political beliefs. Noah considers Obama underrated, highlighting his stimulus package, Dodd-Frank regulations, Iraq War withdrawal, and Obamacare. Obama's immigration policy focused on deporting criminal elements, reducing the illegal immigrant population by about a million. The 2008 financial crisis was a "liquidity preference shock" where fear caused everyone to hold cash rather than spend. During demand-side crises, the government acts as "spender of last resort" to jumpstart economic activity. Infrastructure spending during the Obama era wasn't efficient, creating problems for future building initiatives. Post-2008 policies increased US debt from 60% to 100% of GDP during Obama's administration. Higher inflation under Biden has actually decreased the debt-to-GDP ratio despite increased spending. The "new right" ideology focuses on "Western civilization" - not racial nationalism but reverence for traditional European/Christian heritage. New right politicians like JD Vance care more about "meme wars" and online status than practical policy solutions. Social media has empowered a small percentage of politically active "shouting class" with outsized influence.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E130: Elon Musk’s Network Effects and Checking in on Chinese AI w/ Byrne Hobart 1:02:20

5 weeks ago1:02:20

1:02:20

This week on Upstream, we're releasing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on March 25, 2025) where Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss Don Jr.'s leveraging of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's departure to address AI risks, economic impacts of various policies, and geopolitical considerations with a focus on AI and China's tech ambitions. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Political Brand Leveraging & Business: Byrne discussed how Donald Trump Jr. is leveraging the Trump brand, noting this follows a pattern where relatives of politicians often engage in business dealings that trade on political connections. High-Stakes Career Choices: They analyzed Dustin Moskovitz's departure from Asana, suggesting it may be motivated by existential AI concerns. Existential Risk Perspectives: Byrne distinguished between "hot apocalypse" scenarios (like nuclear war) and "cold apocalypse" scenarios where societal function gradually deteriorates. Twitter/X and Elon Musk: They discussed how Musk has managed to technically restore Twitter's valuation through financial engineering and leveraging connections between his companies. Economic Policy and Tariffs: Extensive discussion of Trump's tariff strategy as a negotiation tactic rather than a permanent policy. Recession Concerns: Byrne explained how markets anticipate economic changes before they appear in employment data, creating apparent disconnects between Wall Street and Main Street indicators.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E129: Dark Triad, Romantic Partner Selection, and Dating Advice w/ Rob Henderson 1:05:20

5 weeks ago1:05:20

1:05:20

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg interviews author Rob Henderson about modern romance, discussing evolutionary psychology, the attraction to dark triad men, dating apps, and practical advice for men seeking romantic partners. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Why (Some) Women are Attracted to Violent Men: https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/why-some-women-are-attracted-to-violent How to Choose a Romantic Partner: https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/how-to-choose-a-romantic-partner Richard Wrangham’s The Goodness Paradox: https://www.amazon.com/Goodness-Paradox-Relationship-Violence-Evolution/dp/1101870907 Frans de Waal’s writings: https://www.goodreads.com/author/list/112082.Frans_de_Waal David Gilmore’s Manhood in the Making: https://www.amazon.com/Manhood-Making-Cultural-Concepts-Masculinity/dp/0300050763 Neil Strauss’ The Game (Pickup Artists): https://www.amazon.com/Game-Penetrating-Secret-Society-Artists/dp/0060554738 The Social Dimension of Sex: https://www.amazon.com/Social-Dimension-Sex-Roy-Baumeister/dp/0205324428 — X / TWITTER: @robkhenderson @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Evolutionary theory suggests some women may be drawn to men with dark triad personality traits (narcissism, psychopathy, Machiavellianism) as a protective mechanism. Men who achieve high status among other men tend to also attract women. Pickup artist culture evolved from self-improvement advice to more pessimistic "black pill" incel communities. Basic improvements for men seeking relationships include grooming, fitness, career advancement, and creating a comfortable living space. Research shows the strongest correlations between couples are in education, intelligence, political beliefs, and religion. The effectiveness of showing vulnerability depends on how you're already perceived socially. There's a significant lack of relationship guidance for young people compared to abundant career advice. Dating preferences show more variety than expected, suggesting more opportunities than pessimistic views indicate.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E128: US-Europe Relations, How Japan Can Strengthen The Yen, and Predicting AI’s Growth Effects w/ Noah Smith 55:36

6 weeks ago55:36

55:36

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith analyze America's European withdrawal, China's selective globalization strategy, and tempers expectations about AI's economic impact while considering GDP measurement challenges. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik Torenbergand frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/ I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ — X / TWITTER: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe. China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries. India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work. AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic. Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen. AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E127: The Tech Right and How The Left Can Fix Itself w/ Jon Askonas 48:10

6 weeks ago48:10

48:10

Today on Upstream, we’re airing Erik Torenberg’s conversation with Jon Askonas. They explore the emerging coalition between MAGA supporters and Silicon Valley tech leaders, examines the underlying political realignment, the tensions and fault lines within this coalition, and the potential future conflicts surrounding issues like immigration and transhumanism. This episode originally aired on Moment Zen (February 22, 2025) — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik Torenbergand frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Ezra Klein on Supply-side Progressivism, Polarization, and What Silicon Valley Misses About Politics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1vBO8SYvto The Future of Crypto with Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQdaQr3EW8g Tech for Trump: https://www.city-journal.org/article/tech-for-trump The New Control Society: https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-new-control-society — X / TWITTER: @JonAskonas @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Silicon Valley has experienced a significant shift away from Democrats, visually demonstrated by tech CEOs like Nadella, Pichai, Bezos, and Zuckerberg attending Trump's inauguration. The tech elite was historically one of the most entrenched parts of the Democratic coalition from the Clinton era through the Obama administration. COVID enabled tech to be publicly anti-left due to perceived governance incompetence, with figures like Mike Solana leading criticism of San Francisco's policies. Brian Armstrong's "no politics at Coinbase" stance marked a controversial turning point, though it wasn't explicitly right-wing. The new right coalition consists of three pillars: the Tech Right (elite talent and donors), MAGA (America First policies), and MAHA (Make America Healthy Again). What unites this coalition is an "existential fight with the Cathedral" - targeting establishment institutions rather than protecting existing systems. Immigration represents a major fault line, with tech generally being pro-immigration while the MAGA base is restrictionist. Transhumanism and biotechnology create tension between tech enthusiasm for innovation versus MAGA/MAHA skepticism about "messing with natural biology." Democrats are struggling with post-election analysis, focusing on messaging rather than substance. Trump's approach differs from previous Republicans by focusing on destroying rather than reforming institutions. Many of Trump's most controversial positions were actually Democratic positions in the 1990s.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E126: Data Center Economics and AI Energy Requirements w/ Patrick McKenzie and Azeem Azhar 1:17:05

7 weeks ago1:17:05

1:17:05

Today on Upstream, we’re releasing Patrick MacKenzie's interview with Azeem Azhar which originally aired in February 2025 on Complex Systems . They discuss the economics and infrastructure of data centers, comparing historical infrastructure rollouts to modern AI-driven data center needs, and explore the implications of exponential power demands, including innovations like small modular nuclear reactors and geothermal energy. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Exponential View: https://www.exponentialview.co/ OpenAI Hails $500 Billion Stargate Plan: 'More Compute Leads to Better Models': https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-01-22-2025/card/openai-to-release-new-gpt-model-ai-agents-soon-MrUYupSuChEdJh07oIWp Byrne Hobart’s ‘Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnatiom’: https://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bubbles-Stagnation-Byrne-Hobart/dp/1953953476 Inside the World's Largest AI Supercluster xAI Colossus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jf8EPSBZU7Y&t=142s Leopold Aschenbrenner’s SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead: https://situational-awareness.ai/ Dave Kasten’s The Essay Meta: https://davekasten.substack.com/p/welcome-to-the-essay-meta Travis Dauwalter’s Complex Systems episode: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/electricity-grids-travis-dauwalter/ Austin Vernon (Fracking) Complex Systems: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/fracking-austin-vernon/ Project InnerSpace Resources: https://projectinnerspace.org/resources/ Bloom Filters Explained: https://systemdesign.one/bloom-filters-explained/ — X / TWITTER: @azeem @patio11 @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

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E125: Palantir’s Politics, Elon’s Approach to DOGE, and AI’s Effects on Writing w/ Byrne Hobart 58:51

7 weeks ago58:51

58:51

Today on Upstream, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into the wide-ranging effects of technological change on media and society. They cover the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. This episode originally aired on The Riff (March 11, 2025). — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: AI's impact on written content is overstated despite its technical achievements. The social adjustment to blogging was more disruptive than our current adjustment to AI-generated content. Traditional media eventually incorporated blogging and adapted to different publishing cadences. "Real news" remains the least lucrative part of the news business. Media outlets drive partisan narratives through topic selection, not just content framing. Readers generally don't want nuanced views that might challenge their existing beliefs. Bezos positioned the Washington Post to serve growth-oriented progressives and non-Trumpist conservatives. Elon Musk's "Doge" review of USAID may use a strategy of cutting drastically then restoring essential services. Programs like PEPFAR (AIDS relief) have extremely high returns on investment that shouldn't be overlooked. US military spending could be viewed as a form of foreign aid by preventing global conflicts. Karp critiques tech for excelling at "delivering delightful trivialities" but neglecting serious national challenges. Silicon Valley has shifted from "atheist libertarianism" to more nationalist viewpoints. Companies like Palantir represent a public-private synthesis of government capability. Tech companies had anti-establishment cultures when small but now are the establishment themselves. Education polarization has strongly influenced political alignments in the tech industry. When outsiders become insiders, they need to adopt more pragmatic governance approaches.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E124: How to Have A Philosophical Marriage w/ Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks 1:12:09

8 weeks ago1:12:09