353R_Urban mobility scenarios until the 2030s (research summary)

What is The Future for Cities?

Are you interested in the future of urban mobility?

Summary of the article titled Urban mobility scenarios until the 2030s from 2021, by Márk Miskolczi, Dávid Földes, András Munkácsy, and Melinda Jászberényi, published in the Sustainability Cities and Society journal.

This is a great preparation to our next interview with Andrew J. Cary in episode 354 talking about urban transportation and its effects on the urban environment.

Since we are investigating the future of cities, I thought it would be interesting to see what urban mobility scenarios can be projected from the current situations. This article presents 4 distinct scenarios based on 52 existing ones, leading towards self-driving, electric and shared vehicle use.

Find the article through this link.

Abstract: Urban mobility is particularly affected by technology development. This research focuses on the mobility system of cities in the foreseeable future – that is, until the 2030s. A systematic literature review (SLR) of 62 scientific documents and 52 scenarios predicted and developed by researchers are presented here, providing a comprehensive picture of current urban transport research perspectives. Based on a complex method built for this review, four scenarios (‘Grumpy old transport’, ‘At an easy pace’, ‘Mine is yours’, and ‘Tech-eager mobility’) have been created, each forecasting a different path towards future urban mobility. The scenarios so formed describe the expected role and potential of emerging mobility solutions (namely autonomous vehicles, shared mobility, and electrification) and include socio-economic and environmental perspectives. By 2030, most likely pathways are the ‘At an easy pace’ or the ‘Mine is yours’ scenarios, which means that only an incremental advance, such as a slow shift towards self-driving, electric and shared vehicle use is predicted.

Connecting episodes you might be interested in:

• No.048 - Interview with Hussein Dia about urban transportation
• No.326 - Interview with Sarah Bridges about urban public transport

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