Atlanta Fed has the US already in recession for Q1

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Forecast

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025.
• Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns.
• Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January.

Market Reactions and Sell-Offs

• Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022.
• Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines.
• Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility.

Europe as a Potential Investment Opportunity

• Europe’s economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package.
• ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYGEU) vs. MSCI Europe Industrial Sector.
• Potential for growth in industrial and defense sectors.

Euro Stoxx 50 | Weekly | 12 March 2025

Just One Lap Turns 14

• Founded in 2011 to provide online financial education.
• Reflection on the platform’s growth and community support.

South African Budget Review

• Possible VAT increase; lack of innovative fiscal strategies.
• Previous reliance on gold reserves for financial stability.
• Discussion on potential economic impacts.

HomeChoice International Results

• Revenue up 21%, HEPS up 27%, dividend up 17%.
• Expanding into fintech with PayJustNow and FinChoice.
• Liquidity concerns despite strong financial performance.

Two-Pot Retirement Withdrawals - Where Did the Money Go?

• Initial claims suggested debt repayment, but data suggests spending.
• Increased vehicle sales, hospitality sector growth (e.g., Spur, Sun International).
• Implications for long-term financial planning.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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00:00 Economic Outlook: Recession Predictions and Market Reactions 09:07 Investing in Europe: Opportunities and ETFs 12:07 Celebrating 14 Years of Just One Lap 13:20 Budget Analysis: VAT Increase and Economic Innovation 15:09 Home Choice International: Business Performance and Liquidity Challenges 18:19 Consumer Spending Trends: Where Did the Money Go?