#243 Jim Bianco: The Status Quo Cannot Hold - Major Economic Realignment Underway

The Julia La Roche Show

#Trading #Business #Julia La Roche

33:19

What’s the secret to lasting friendships? How does queer community show up through the ebbs and flows of life? And what’s the REAL story behind the “YMCA” song? In the first episode of Silver Linings, The Old Gays dive into an essential part of queer life: chosen family. They discuss the vital love, support, and sense of belonging that community provides, especially during life's toughest moments. They open up about what “queer” means to them, how chosen family has impacted their lives, and how to maintain close bonds over time–including their love for each other! “We’ve come a long way, baby.” Family isn’t just what you’re born with; it’s the people who show up, shape you, and stick around. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

about a year ago 57:37

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Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 242 to discuss the markets and the economy. He explains why America's K-shaped economy - where the top 10% drives 50% of retail sales - has made the status quo unsustainable. He argues Trump's policies reflect the reality that our $36 trillion debt has become a national security issue requiring allies to pay for their defense rather than relying solely on U.S. taxpayers. Bianco maintains his "no landing" economic outlook, viewing tariffs as negotiation leverage rather than permanent policy. For investors, he predicts bonds will deliver 5% returns with lower volatility compared to stocks' 6-7% annually, making fixed income an attractive alternative after years of TINA (There Is No Alternative).

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

x.com/biancoresearch

0:00 Introduction and welcome back Jim Bianco

0:55 Big picture view on K-shaped economy

3:18 Bottom half vs top half income differences

4:38 Top 10% accounting for 50% of retail sales

6:52 Unsustainable fiscal situation and policy shifts

9:12 Mar-a-Lago Accord discussion

14:03 Ukraine situation and security payments

17:44 Fourth Turning analysis and Trump's preparation

21:06 Focus on rebuilding manufacturing jobs

22:28 Bond market analysis and common misconceptions

26:43 Bond yields vs stock market returns

29:28 Stock market valuation and return expectations

31:29 Problems with passive investing

34:42 Market correction reaction and overreaction

38:43 Tesla stock overreaction example

39:59 No landing economic view

42:21 Tariffs as leverage, not permanent policy

43:22 Red Sea shipping disruption analysis

47:08 Houthi drone attacks and economic implications

50:51 Global security costs and European defense spending

54:28 Closing thoughts on economic realignment

263 episodes

The Julia La Roche Show

#243 Jim Bianco: The Status Quo Cannot Hold - Major Economic Realignment Underway

The Julia La Roche Show

18 subscribers

published about a year ago

MP3•Episode home

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

x.com/biancoresearch

0:00 Introduction and welcome back Jim Bianco

0:55 Big picture view on K-shaped economy

3:18 Bottom half vs top half income differences

4:38 Top 10% accounting for 50% of retail sales

6:52 Unsustainable fiscal situation and policy shifts

9:12 Mar-a-Lago Accord discussion

14:03 Ukraine situation and security payments

17:44 Fourth Turning analysis and Trump's preparation

21:06 Focus on rebuilding manufacturing jobs

22:28 Bond market analysis and common misconceptions

26:43 Bond yields vs stock market returns

29:28 Stock market valuation and return expectations

31:29 Problems with passive investing

34:42 Market correction reaction and overreaction

38:43 Tesla stock overreaction example

39:59 No landing economic view

42:21 Tariffs as leverage, not permanent policy

43:22 Red Sea shipping disruption analysis

47:08 Houthi drone attacks and economic implications

50:51 Global security costs and European defense spending

54:28 Closing thoughts on economic realignment

263 episodes

#Trading #Business #Julia La Roche

All episodes

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#262 George Noble: We're In A Regime Shift — End of US Dominance And Now Is The Time For Gold And Foreign Markets 48:09

3 days ago48:09

48:09

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, argues we're in a regime shift where US exceptionalism is ending. He sees global rotation away from dollar assets as foreign capital heads home. He expects bond yields to rise significantly until markets force politicians' hands, recommending investors get out of paper money and into scarce assets like gold. Noble is bearish on US equities, especially consumer stocks and the Mag-7, favoring foreign markets and gold as protection against fiscal irresponsibility. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/ X: https://x.com/gnoble79 Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble 1:05 Big picture macro view - regime shift and end of US exceptionalism 3:56 Dollar decline and foreign capital rotation 6:29 Which regions benefit from global rotation 9:48 Fiscal mess - default vs. devalue the debt 12:49 How markets will force politicians' hand 15:40 Fed rate cut expectations and recession probability 19:57 Doge criticism - why spending cuts were never realistic 23:33 Party continues until "Mr. Bond shows up" 24:33 Get out of paper money - gold and scarce assets 25:24 Bitcoin discussion and getting "orange pilled" 29:12 Japanese yen looks cheap, avoid US consumer stocks 31:08 Passive investing problems and stock picker's market 33:28 Gold has room to run - contrarian view 38:08 Lessons from closing ETF 42:39 Parting thoughts and upcoming investment conference…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#261 Mel Mattison: "We're Just Beginning to Inflate" a Massive Asset Bubble - S&P 7000, Bitcoin $150K, Gold $3500 57:57

5 days ago57:57

57:57

Mel Mattison, a fintech executive with 25+ years in financial services, argues the U.S. is entering fiscal dominance where massive deficits will fuel asset bubbles rather than economic collapse. He correctly predicted the S&P's drop to 5,000 in early 2025 and expects it to reach 7,000 by year-end, driven by Trump administration policies that prioritize growth over spending cuts. Mattison believes the 10-year Treasury rate is irrelevant since 85% of government debt is issued in short-term bills tied to Fed funds, allowing borrowing costs to fall even as deficits rise. With 2025 targets of Bitcoin at $150K and gold at $3,500, plus S&P at 12,000 within years, he sees this as the beginning of the biggest asset bubble since the 1990s dot-com era. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: X: https://x.com/MelMattison1 The 10 Year Ain’t What It Used to Be: https://x.com/MelMattison1/status/1922710289486627300 Website: https://www.melmattison.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Quoz-Financial-Thriller-Mel-Mattison/dp/B0CV89VLMY Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro of Mel Mattison0:58 Background and macro framework3:15 Fiscal dominance and deficit spending reality5:37 Salsa and sour cream market theory9:11 Why markets will hit 7,000 by year end10:52 Calling the market bottom at 5,11512:22 Why rate fears are overblown16:10 Monthly treasury statement insights17:05 Budget surpluses signal collapse, deficits signal bubbles18:06 Riding the asset bubble strategy20:41 Government borrowing costs going down despite rising debt23:27 Policy makers have more rabbits to pull out24:04 USD printing machine philosophy26:57 S&P 12,000 target within few years28:32 Biggest asset bubble of our lifetime30:40 Bitcoin $150K and gold $3,500 predictions35:30 Federal Reserve rate cut forecasts38:52 Unlocking home equity through HELOCs42:06 Massive stimulus through front-end manipulation42:21 Trump's oil and energy strategy46:38 Fed funds as baby boomer stimulus53:13 Parting thoughts and where to follow…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#260 David Woo: Stock Market Making "Huge Mistake" On Trade War - Next 6 Weeks Are Going To Be Scarier 59:08

9 days ago59:08

59:08

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 260 to discuss tariffs, markets, and geopolitics. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48). Links: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro of David Woo 1:09 Macro picture and Trump's market influence 1:45 China tariff capitulation analysis 5:36 Trump as tactical trader 6:26 Understanding Trump's constraints 11:16 Investment strategy for trade war 17:32 How to win a trade war 23:03 Defensive positioning advice 24:30 Ukraine-Russia war failure 32:05 Geopolitical risk ranking 39:07 Do sanctions work? 43:55 Prediction markets on trade deals 48:53 Conservative movement struggles globally 49:28 Trump 2.0 performance critique 52:26 Elon Musk and DOGE disappointment 56:05 Closing thoughts…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#259 Hedge Fund Telemetry's Thomas Thornton On The Biggest Macro Risk That Could Trigger Panic Buttons 57:02

13 days ago57:02

57:02

Tommy Thornton, founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the volatile market conditions of 2025 . He examines bond market risks, highlighting concerns about rising treasury yields and potential systemic impacts if rates break key levels. Thornton analyzes tariffs, the Fed, tax cuts, the national debt, and the probability of a recession. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi : https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/ https://www.x.com/tommythornton Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome 1:44 - Market volatility conditions in 2025 3:51 - Comparing Trump 1.0 vs 2.0 economic challenges 6:16 - Bond market risks and treasury yields 8:40 - Tariffs impact on retailers and consumers 10:46 - Federal Reserve's stance and labor market focus 14:54 - Potential spillover effects from bond to equity markets 18:22 - Technical analysis deep dive with charts 24:53 - Overbought market conditions indicators 27:40 - Wave analysis and market pattern predictions 35:26 - Gold market analysis and trading approach 43:34 - Recession outlook and economic projections 46:31 - Stagflation risks and Fed response 49:07 - Tax cut challenges in current deficit environment 54:55 - Closing thoughts and investment advice…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#258 Chris Whalen: No Recession, Tariffs Just 'a Distraction,' Why Stocks Rise & Gold Is 'a Great Trad 39:14

18 days ago39:14

39:14

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show to discuss his newly released book "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream." Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: kalshi.com/julia In this episode, Whalen offers a contrarian perspective on current markets, dismissing recession fears while highlighting a "silent recession" in commercial real estate. He draws parallels between Trump and Andrew Jackson, explains why the Treasury-Fed relationship is America's most important economic factor, and predicts zero rate cuts this year despite market expectations. Whalen argues that America's addiction to inflation has benefited asset holders while hurting average citizens, creating a housing affordability crisis and warning of an impending commercial real estate collapse that could become "the new subprime." Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome back Chris Whalen 0:31 - Discussion about Chris's new book release 2:04 - Current market analysis and tariff situation 2:35 - Trump's fiscal plans and Congressional challenges 3:58 - Credit to Chris for predicting tariffs as "distraction" 4:21 - Chris's investment positions 5:09 - America's addiction to debt 7:35 - Treasury market and Fed priorities analysis 9:02 - Banks' lack of credit demand issue 11:22 - Inflation misconceptions 13:43 - Trump/Jackson parallel 15:33 - Fed/Treasury relationship change post-2008 17:09 - Trump's vision for economic role of government 18:06 - Solutions for national debt 19:37 - Inflation impact across economic classes 21:33 - Housing market issues and starter home costs 24:56 - 2% inflation compounding effects 26:08 - Inflation's role in addressing national debt 28:49 - Recession outlook discussion 30:36 - "Silent recession" in commercial real estate 31:55 - Why rate cuts aren't needed 33:37 - Commercial real estate as "the new subprime" 35:29 - Government as housing lender of last resort problems 37:06 - Closing remarks…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#257 Dr. Edward Altman: We're Entering The 'Stressed' Zone In The Credit Cycle, Why Bankruptcies Last Year Exceeded Financial Crisis Levels, And And Why Defaults Lead Recessions 1:03:25

20 days ago1:03:25

1:03:25

Dr. Edward Altman, creator of the Z-Score bankruptcy prediction model and Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the Stern School of Business, joins Julia La Roche on episode 257 for an in-depth discussion on where we are in the credit cycle. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ed Altman discusses the current state of the credit cycle. Dr. Altman explains that 2024 saw more Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings than any year since the Great Financial Crisis, with over 7,000 filings. He analyzes why the economy has moved from a "benign" phase to a "stress" phase in his credit cycle framework, highlighting the dichotomy between high-yield bonds and bank loans, the impact of floating-rate debt, and the growth of private credit markets. Dr. Altman also examines distressed exchanges as alternatives to bankruptcy, government debt concerns, and why credit cycles typically precede business cycles as leading economic indicators. Dr. Altman is a renowned professor and researcher for his bankruptcy prediction and credit risk analysis work. Dr. Altman earned his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has been with NYU Stern School of Business since 1967. He is most famous for developing the Z-Score formula in the late 1960s. The Z-Score is a financial model that uses historical data to predict a company's likelihood of bankruptcy. This formula is widely used by investors, financial analysts, and auditors as a tool for predicting corporate defaults and an aid in credit risk management. Dr. Altman has published numerous books and articles on the topics of bankruptcy, corporate distress analysis, corporate financial restructuring, and credit risk. His work has had a significant impact on both academic finance and practical investment analysis. Links: Wiser Funding: https://www.wiserfunding.com/ Corporate Financial Distress, Restructuring and Bankruptcy Book: https://www.amazon.com/Corporate-Financial-Distress-Restructuring-Bankruptcy/dp/1119481805/ NYU Stern: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman 00:00 - Introduction to Dr. Edward Altman 01:17 - The current credit cycle and economy outlook 03:17 - Credit market dichotomy between high yield bonds and bank loans 05:43 - Floating rate vs fixed rate debt performance 09:16 - Credit cycle as a leading indicator for the business cycle 15:21 - Record high Chapter 11 bankruptcies in 2024 19:06 - Understanding distressed exchanges as a default technique 26:58 - The Z-Score: history and evolution 33:49 - Changes in corporate debt markets over the decades 36:37 - Bond rating equivalents for Z-Scores 38:32 - Comparing current conditions to the 2007 credit bubble 45:19 - Private credit market growth and impact 51:38 - Government debt concerns and interest payments 59:59 - Closing thoughts on the credit cycle and market outlook…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#256 Danielle DiMartino Booth On The Hidden Economic Indicators Flashing Red 43:56

25 days ago43:56

43:56

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 256 for an FOMC day interview. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia DiMartino Booth argues that Fed monetary policy remains overly restrictive while the labor market is "anything but solid." She points to concerning indicators including record credit card minimum payments, rising long-term unemployment, and declining full-time jobs. DiMartino Booth makes the case for immediate rate cuts to a floor of 2%, warning the economy now operates "without a safety net" after successive waves of debt-fueled growth. Looking forward, she expresses concern about geopolitical risks while finding hope in the strong work ethic of the younger generation. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 - Opening commentary on Powell and monetary policy 0:23 - Introduction and FOMC day discussion 1:39 - Arguments that monetary policy is too restrictive 2:49 - Labor market indicators and private sector layoffs 4:13 - Credit card minimum payments and student loan impacts 6:02 - Signs of financial stress in refinancing behaviors 8:10 - Bankruptcy trends and distressed debt exchanges 9:57 - Fed's dual mandate debate 12:05 - Critique of Powell's selective history on Fed actions 13:57 - Job market reality vs. Powell's "solid" characterization 15:48 - Self-employment and full-time job losses 17:50 - Sponsor segment 19:08 - Labor market "scarring" and long-term unemployment 21:12 - Federal debt approaching $38 trillion 22:03 - Analysis of long-term debt cycles since Greenspan 24:16 - Student loan wage garnishment concerns 28:36 - Fed rate cut recommendations 30:10 - Policy pushing money from real economy to financial assets 33:00 - Tariffs discussion - why they're deflationary not inflationary 36:38 - Real-world impacts of import costs 38:26 - What keeps Danielle up at night - geopolitical concerns 39:53 - What gives her hope - younger generation's work ethic 42:17 - Information about Qi Research and closing thoughts…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#255 Grant Williams on the 100-Year Pivot That's Bigger Than Markets 1:02:12

27 days ago1:02:12

1:02:12

Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 255 where he discusses what he calls a fundamental "100-year pivot" reshaping the global landscape. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Williams warns that we've entered an "air pocket" where tariff impacts haven't yet fully manifested in corporate earnings but will soon emerge with significant consequences. He emphasizes a crucial mindset shift from "getting rich" to "staying rich," urging investors to prioritize capital preservation over chasing returns. Williams provides thought-provoking insights on gold's rise reflecting central bank diversification away from US treasuries, the questioning of foundational institutions, and why even his natural cynicism wasn't enough to prepare for the current economic climate. Throughout, he stresses that these changes extend far beyond markets, representing a once-in-a-generation transformation that requires deep reflection. Links: https://www.grant-williams.com/ https://twitter.com/ttmygh 0:00 - Intro and welcome back Grant Williams 0:54 - Big picture macro view question 1:35 - Market uncertainty and volatility discussion 5:52 - Signs of tariff effects appearing in data 7:06 - Return to company fundamentals vs stock pricing 7:35 - Question about holding liquidity 8:18 - Buffett stepping down significance 10:38 - Recent important diplomatic shifts with China and Japan 14:53 - Discussion of "100 year pivot" and generational change 18:01 - Understanding the new world we're navigating 22:03 - Investment vs trading distinction in changing markets 25:00 - Shift from "getting rich" to "staying rich" mindset 27:19 - Gold discussion 34:38 - Future of the US dollar 40:14 - Shift to domestic-focused economic policies 42:22 - Protecting assets vs making money in the new paradigm 48:33 - Risks keeping Grant up at night 52:29 - Not being "cynical enough" realization 57:26 - Problems beyond markets affecting everyday lives 59:56 - Final thoughts…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#254 Dr. Lacy Hunt: The Five Recessionary Forces Creating an Economic Interregnum 1:02:29

30 days ago1:02:29

1:02:29

In Episode 254 of The Julia La Roche Show, legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt, Chief Economist at Hoisington Investment Management, analyzes what he calls an economic "interregnum" where five convergent forces are aligning to depress growth. Dr. Hunt methodically explains how tariffs will ultimately prove deflationary rather than inflationary, why the Fed's restrictive monetary policy is misplaced, how federal spending cuts are creating headwinds, why massive debt overhang limits policy effectiveness, and how changing demographics will impact long-term prospects. With over 56 years of experience and historical perspective dating back to the 1920s, Dr. Hunt delivers a sobering but authoritative prediction that recession lies ahead in 2025, describing it as "a long, difficult slog" rather than a brief downturn. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist. He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics." Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO). This is the 56th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases. Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well. Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome 1:16 - "Interregnum" explanation 1:28 - Tariffs discussion begins 2:08 - Economic boost from tariff announcements 2:49 - Consumer buying ahead of tariffs 3:42 - Employment impact of demand surge 4:26 - Inventory accumulation 5:03 - Federal spending decline (FY 2025) 6:18 - Economy in frail condition 7:05 - Beverage ratio analysis 7:45 - Average hourly earnings indicator 8:11 - April's wage growth weakness 9:30 - Late Easter timing challenges 10:31 - Recession prediction 10:58 - Five convergent economic factors 11:32 - Microeconomics of tariffs 12:55 - Price elasticity in international trade 14:31 - Historical context (1920s-1930s) 15:44 - French devaluation of 1925 17:43 - Smoot-Hawley tariff impact 19:45 - Chart explanation of M2 trend 21:03 - Tariffs' impact on money supply 22:15 - Monetary policy restrictiveness 22:51 - Fed's "data dependency" critique 25:31 - Other deposit liabilities explained 28:38 - Fed policy recommendations 29:37 - Tax cut potency limitations 31:16 - Fed's need for longer-term view 32:08 - Forward guidance discussion 33:22 - Asset reallocation issues 35:48 - Net national savings analysis 37:39 - Birth rate economic connections 39:46 - Immigration discussion 42:52 - Recession confirmation 43:49 - Historical economists on debt 44:37 - Interest expense approaching defense spending 46:18 - US debt impacts (125% of GDP) 48:30 - Gross vs. net debt explanation 49:48 - Fisher equation for bond yields 53:00 - Tariffs' deflationary nature 55:32 - High-tech sector growth analysis 56:38 - Aircraft sector growth unsustainability 57:11 - Federal spending outlook 1:00:03 - Need for tariff dispute resolution 1:01:18 - Closing remarks…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#253 Ted Oakley: 'They're Giving You Another Chance to Get Liquidity. You Should Take It' 47:00

5 weeks ago47:00

47:00

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 253 to discuss the economy and markets. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ted discusses the concerning deterioration in economic indicators despite ongoing investor complacency, warning that earnings expectations are too optimistic while market multiples remain elevated. He shares his approach to maintaining significant liquidity (currently 55%) while selectively investing in value opportunities like consumer staples. Ted also explains his gold strategy, with bullion as a permanent currency hedge and miners as tradable assets. The conversation concludes with insights from his new book "Second Generation Wealth," where he emphasizes the importance of letting children experience financial independence and adversity before introducing them to family wealth. With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and welcome 0:32 Big picture macro view - deterioration and complacency 2:05 Explaining market complacency despite bearish sentiment 3:21 Liquidity and portfolio positioning 4:45 Appropriate liquidity levels by age group 7:42 Boomers' over-allocation to stocks 8:47 Value Line Investment Survey as a market indicator 10:52 Scaling into investments during market downturns 11:55 Fully invested vs. current 55% liquid strategy 14:09 Market risks: shrinking corporate margins and multiples 16:05 Market decline without recession possibility 17:05 Recent market movement - another chance for liquidity 18:35 Q1 GDP insights and market end-of-month action 19:48 Preparing for potential market scenarios 21:26 Retail buyers and leverage in current market recovery 22:35 Current investment opportunities - consumer staples and value 24:48 Gold strategy - bullion as currency hedge vs. miners as trades 27:45 Gold's purchasing power preservation over time 30:10 Treasury strategy - staying under two years to maintain control 31:36 US fiscal situation and future outlook 33:58 Second Generation Wealth - inheritance and teaching kids about money 36:17 Helping children develop self-esteem and independence 39:16 The importance of adversity and work ethic for children 41:37 Setting an example - treating everyone equally 44:13 Parting thoughts…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#252 Melody Wright: The U.S. Housing Market Is In A Massive Bubble 29:27

5 weeks ago29:27

29:27

Melody Wright joins Julia La Roche on episode 252 to discuss the state of the U.S. housing market. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Melody debunks the "inventory shortage" myth in housing and reveals startling truths about the current market. She explains how March home sales fell below 2008 levels despite population growth, discusses the hyperfinancialization of real estate through Wall Street and Airbnb investors, and shares insights from driving 10,000 miles across America to observe housing conditions firsthand. Melody also exposes ongoing defaults from the 2008 crisis and offers hope for frustrated millennial homebuyers waiting for affordability to return. Throughout our conversation, she provides a sobering look at what our distorted housing market reveals about the broader economy. Links: YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody X: https://x.com/m3_melody Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/ Timestamps 0:00 Introduction and welcome Melody Wright 0:23 Setting up the big picture on housing and real estate 1:08 The context of the housing market's current state 3:18 Worst housing market in our lifetimes - March sales lower than 2008 4:18 Discussion of housing bubble and unaffordability 5:47 Hyperfinancialization of housing 6:15 Wall Street's role in housing after the GFC 7:32 The short-term rental craze and Airbnb saturation 9:03 How to see the real housing inventory numbers 11:06 Debunking the inventory myth and where the market is headed 12:58 FHA loan issues and foreclosure programs 15:07 Hope for millennial homebuyers 16:42 Advice for first-time homebuyers 18:08 What the housing market says about the economy 19:00 Commercial real estate situation and empty buildings 20:35 Insights from driving 10,000 miles across America 22:43 Unlearned lessons from the Global Financial Crisis 23:51 Ongoing defaults from the 2008 crisis 25:02 What a healthy housing market would look like 26:26 Closing thoughts…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#251 Darius Dale: Wall Street Is Still In Charge — Did Trump Abandon Main Street Already? 58:47

6 weeks ago58:47

58:47

Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 251 to discuss Trump, tariffs, and the risks facing the markets and the economy. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: 42 Macro https://42macro.com/ Darius on X/Twitter: https://x.com/dariusdale42 42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://x.com/42macro 42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro 0:00 Intro and welcome Darius Dale 0:30 Quick update on Wednesday morning with Darius onTrump's Wall Street pivot 11:29 Original interview begins: 12:43 Core research themes: Sticky inflation and resilient economy 18:09 Treasury market dynamics and foreign ownership concerns 21:24 American exceptionalism and international investment imbalances 27:58 Discussion of technical recession outlook 31:24 Detailed recession forecast and Fed response predictions 33:38 Labor vs capital distribution shifts over generations 37:52 Balance of payments crisis risks and twin deficit implications 43:03 KISS systematic investment strategy explained 50:57 Gold outlook and bond market analysis 54:37 Closing thoughts…

The Julia La Roche Show

1
#250 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Collapsing Confidence, Trump vs. Powell, Market Turmoil, and What's Next 37:45

6 weeks ago37:45

37:45

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 250 where she reiterates her view that the US is already in recession, explains the "collapse in confidence" spreading through markets, and evaluates the growing tension between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. Booth reveals concerning trends in consumer credit, employment data, and housing that mainstream statistics aren't capturing. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 03:31 - Discussion on US exceptionalism and capital migration out of US dollar assets 06:50 - Exploring the implications of collapsing confidence 08:35 - Trump's Truth Social post about Powell and interest rates 11:59 - Federal Reserve's independence and potential rate cut decisions 15:20 - Discussion on whether rate cuts are necessary and timing 16:02 - Explanation of Fed blackout period and limitations on communication 17:59 - Analysis of Trump's strategy regarding Fed commentary 19:17 - Consumer 22:20 - CEO confidence decline, reduced capital expenditures, and potential layoffs 23:47 - Discussion on high unemployment claim rejection rates (44%) 25:19 - Effects on gig economy and discretionary spending like rideshare services 27:03 - Confirmation that we are in a recession 31:34 - Housing market assessment and discussion of market conditions 34:05 - Housing price outlook and structural issues 36:00 - Closing thoughts…

The Julia La Roche Show

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#249 Dr. Gary Shilling On Tariffs, Impending Recession, And Why He's Still Betting on the Dollar & Treasuries 43:21

6 weeks ago43:21

43:21

Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 249 to discuss the state of the economy. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Dr. Shilling explains why he believes we are headed for a recession, if not already in one. He analyzes how Trump's tariff policies are disrupting global trade relationships and creating economic uncertainty while simultaneously forcing countries like China to the negotiating table. Despite these headwinds, Dr. Shilling reveals why he remains bullish on US Treasuries and the dollar as safe havens, shares his optimistic outlook on Indian stocks over Chinese investments, and advises listeners to build "fortress-like balance sheets" to weather the coming economic storm. Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction and welcome back Dr. Shilling 01:50 - Historical context: US economic role since World War II 03:34 - Impact of globalization on US manufacturing 04:14 - Trump's changing approach to international trade 06:37 - China's position and recent willingness to negotiate 09:03 - Signs of recession and economic vulnerabilities 12:33 - Bond market volatility and US Treasury outlook 17:18 - Perspective on gold reaching record highs 19:11 - Current investment allocations and strategies 20:21 - Why India may surpass China in global leadership 24:19 - Media coverage of market fluctuations vs long-term outlook 26:47 - Dr. Shilling's history of contrarian economic predictions 29:56 - Assessment of current economic vulnerabilities 32:04 - Consumer debt and "buy now, pay later" trends 33:27 - The US debt bomb and dollar's reserve currency status 36:52 - Potential outcomes of tariff policies 39:43 - Contact information and subscription details 40:42 - Closing advice: maintaining a "fortress-like balance sheet" Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).…

The Julia La Roche Show

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#248 Larry McDonald on America's Market Wake-Up Call 42:37

7 weeks ago42:37