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CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 22

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Manage episode 486657058 series 3662214
Content provided by HSAT. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by HSAT or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.

This week’s cocoa market summary provides a comprehensive overview of developments affecting global cocoa supply, pricing dynamics, and regulatory shifts, with a particular focus on West Africa, the United States, and global trade patterns.

  • Ivory Coast: Cocoa shipments since October 1 have reached 1.6 million metric tons, marking a 9.6% year-on-year increase. However, this growth reflects a slowdown compared to the 35% increase seen in December. Concerns over bean quality have intensified during the mid-crop harvest, with up to 6% of truckloads composed of substandard beans—significantly higher than the 1% seen during the main crop. The decline is linked to irregular rainfall, which has adversely affected bean development.
  • Ghana: Ghana’s cocoa production forecast has been revised down to 675,500 metric tons, a 5% reduction from previous estimates. This downward adjustment may place upward pressure on global prices due to anticipated supply tightening.
  • Global Outlook: The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported a substantial global cocoa deficit of 441,000 metric tons for the 2023–24 season, primarily due to a 13.1% decline in global production. However, projections for the 2024–25 season indicate a possible surplus of 142,000 metric tons, assuming a 7.8% rise in production, which could weigh on future prices.
  • United States: Tariff developments have added volatility. A newly implemented 10% tariff on specific cocoa imports initially pressured prices, but subsequent court rulings have blocked several of these measures, easing New York cocoa contract premiums and leading to a softening of U.S. cocoa futures.
  • Weather Conditions: Improved rainfall in West Africa has raised expectations for future harvests, though ongoing drought concerns in Ghana and Ivory Coast continue to pose a threat to production.
  • Demand Trends: High cocoa prices and economic headwinds have weighed on major chocolate manufacturers, impacting forecasts and raising costs. Nevertheless, recent cocoa grinding data from North America, Europe, and Asia indicates stronger-than-expected demand, suggesting possible price stabilization if demand remains resilient.
  continue reading

36 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 486657058 series 3662214
Content provided by HSAT. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by HSAT or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.

This week’s cocoa market summary provides a comprehensive overview of developments affecting global cocoa supply, pricing dynamics, and regulatory shifts, with a particular focus on West Africa, the United States, and global trade patterns.

  • Ivory Coast: Cocoa shipments since October 1 have reached 1.6 million metric tons, marking a 9.6% year-on-year increase. However, this growth reflects a slowdown compared to the 35% increase seen in December. Concerns over bean quality have intensified during the mid-crop harvest, with up to 6% of truckloads composed of substandard beans—significantly higher than the 1% seen during the main crop. The decline is linked to irregular rainfall, which has adversely affected bean development.
  • Ghana: Ghana’s cocoa production forecast has been revised down to 675,500 metric tons, a 5% reduction from previous estimates. This downward adjustment may place upward pressure on global prices due to anticipated supply tightening.
  • Global Outlook: The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported a substantial global cocoa deficit of 441,000 metric tons for the 2023–24 season, primarily due to a 13.1% decline in global production. However, projections for the 2024–25 season indicate a possible surplus of 142,000 metric tons, assuming a 7.8% rise in production, which could weigh on future prices.
  • United States: Tariff developments have added volatility. A newly implemented 10% tariff on specific cocoa imports initially pressured prices, but subsequent court rulings have blocked several of these measures, easing New York cocoa contract premiums and leading to a softening of U.S. cocoa futures.
  • Weather Conditions: Improved rainfall in West Africa has raised expectations for future harvests, though ongoing drought concerns in Ghana and Ivory Coast continue to pose a threat to production.
  • Demand Trends: High cocoa prices and economic headwinds have weighed on major chocolate manufacturers, impacting forecasts and raising costs. Nevertheless, recent cocoa grinding data from North America, Europe, and Asia indicates stronger-than-expected demand, suggesting possible price stabilization if demand remains resilient.
  continue reading

36 episodes

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