CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 23

CropGPT - Cocoa

Podcast Episode Summary: Global Cocoa Market Weekly – June 8, 2025

This week’s cocoa market update offers a comprehensive overview of production developments and climatic challenges across key producing nations.

In Ivory Coast, cocoa production continues to be affected by erratic weather patterns and declining bean quality. Despite this, the country remains a dominant exporter, with shipments reaching 1.6 million metric tons—a 9.6% year-on-year increase. However, mid-crop quality issues are emerging, with up to 6% of beans showing defects.

Ghana faces a 5% reduction in its 2024/25 output forecast, driven by insufficient rainfall and elevated temperatures. The Ghana Cocoa Board is attempting to stabilize the sector through policy efforts, including competitive farm gate pricing, but ongoing climate stress hampers results.

In Ecuador, persistent dryness and lower temperatures are stressing the mid-crop, particularly in Los Rios and Manabí, raising concerns about overall yields.

Nigeria is witnessing renewed interest in cocoa farming, fueled by strong global prices and a weak naira. While production shows signs of recovery, issues like smuggling—estimated at 200,000 tons annually—obscure accurate tracking. Regulatory efforts are underway to improve sustainability and data transparency.

Brazil is expanding its cocoa sector through strategic rural credit initiatives, especially in Pará, and is promoting formal supply chain integration. Events such as the Amazon Cocoa and Chocolate Fair highlight the country’s growing commitment to cocoa development.

Meanwhile, South Sudan is making early progress by distributing cocoa seedlings—10 million planned, with 800,000 already delivered—to improve livelihoods and promote climate resilience.

The episode concludes by emphasizing that each country's ability to adapt to environmental pressures and implement effective policies will shape their future in the evolving global cocoa market.