CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 25

CropGPT - Cocoa

Episode Summary: Global Cocoa Market Update – June 22, 2025

• This week's global cocoa market overview spotlights complex dynamics across major producing countries.
• In the Ivory Coast, mid-crop conditions are mixed. While rainfall has been largely supportive, erratic temperatures and increased incidence of pod disease are affecting pod ripening. Export volumes have slowed notably compared to late 2024. In Ghana, production prospects remain strained. Financial limitations at the Cocoa Board have delayed fertilizer distribution, while erratic weather adds further risk. The mid-crop harvest may fall short of initial targets, reflecting deeper economic challenges tied to credit downgrades and fiscal tightening.
• Brazil's cocoa sector, particularly in Pará state, continues to strengthen. With yields averaging 847 kilograms per hectare, a 5% production boost is anticipated through the integration of agroforestry and digital farming technologies. Nigeria is tackling cocoa adulteration in Ondo state to safeguard export quality, amid an 11% year-over-year decline in April cocoa exports, potentially indicating broader structural issues.
• In Ecuador, uneven rainfall patterns are creating regional disparities in cocoa output. While heavy rains in areas like Manabí and Esmeraldas demand increased crop protection efforts, water scarcity in Los Ríos and Goias is heightening reliance on irrigation systems that are not fully operational.
• Overall, the global cocoa market remains sensitive to weather fluctuations, disease prevalence, infrastructure constraints, and shifting financial conditions. As volatility persists, close monitoring of agronomic and market signals is essential.