CropGPT - Coffee - Week 25 CropGPT

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Episode Summary: Global Coffee Market Weekly – June 22, 2025
This episode of the Global Coffee Market Weekly focuses on major production and trade developments in Ethiopia and Brazil, offering a snapshot of trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the international coffee landscape.

Ethiopia is expected to reach a historic peak in coffee production for the 2025–2026 marketing year, with output projected at 11.56 million 60-kilogram bags, or approximately 694,000 metric tons. This 9 percent year-on-year increase is driven by national agricultural reforms, favorable weather, and the widespread replanting of improved coffee varieties on over 450,000 hectares of aging farmland. Yield gains have been especially strong in regions such as Gidio, where productivity has tripled.
The country’s production remains overwhelmingly Arabica. Higher-yielding, climate-resilient seedlings and improved farming practices have supported this growth. Favorable global coffee prices, along with liberalized export policies and market-based exchange rates, have further stimulated investment. Domestic consumption is also rising, forecast to reach 3.7 million bags, reflecting increased urbanization and the growth of a modern cafe culture. Exports are set to increase 11.4 percent to 7.8 million bags, with green coffee accounting for 99.5 percent of shipments.
Despite this progress, Ethiopia continues to face significant hurdles: erratic rainfall, poor infrastructure, limited financing for smallholders, and dependence on volatile Arabica prices. Market access barriers also persist for smaller producers.
Brazil is similarly poised for a record-setting coffee harvest in 2025, projected at 55.7 million bags. This performance is notable given it is an off-year in the biennial cycle. Arabica production is down 6.6 percent due to earlier drought conditions and cyclical factors, but Robusta output is surging, particularly in Espirito Santo, where favorable conditions and modern techniques have pushed production up 28.3 percent.
Global market response included a sharp price increase in May, which eased in June as Brazil’s robust harvest helped calm supply concerns. Brazil continues to lead in logistics efficiency, with over 90 percent of exports processed through major ports. From July 2024 to May 2025, export volumes declined by 2 percent year over year, yet export revenues reached a record $13.69 billion, the highest for any single crop year. Arabica remains the dominant export, with specialty and premium coffees maintaining an important share despite modest output declines.

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Ethiopia is expected to reach a historic peak in coffee production for the 2025–2026 marketing year, with output projected at 11.56 million 60-kilogram bags, or approximately 694,000 metric tons. This 9 percent year-on-year increase is driven by national agricultural reforms, favorable weather, and the widespread replanting of improved coffee varieties on over 450,000 hectares of aging farmland. Yield gains have been especially strong in regions such as Gidio, where productivity has tripled.
The country’s production remains overwhelmingly Arabica. Higher-yielding, climate-resilient seedlings and improved farming practices have supported this growth. Favorable global coffee prices, along with liberalized export policies and market-based exchange rates, have further stimulated investment. Domestic consumption is also rising, forecast to reach 3.7 million bags, reflecting increased urbanization and the growth of a modern cafe culture. Exports are set to increase 11.4 percent to 7.8 million bags, with green coffee accounting for 99.5 percent of shipments.
Despite this progress, Ethiopia continues to face significant hurdles: erratic rainfall, poor infrastructure, limited financing for smallholders, and dependence on volatile Arabica prices. Market access barriers also persist for smaller producers.
Brazil is similarly poised for a record-setting coffee harvest in 2025, projected at 55.7 million bags. This performance is notable given it is an off-year in the biennial cycle. Arabica production is down 6.6 percent due to earlier drought conditions and cyclical factors, but Robusta output is surging, particularly in Espirito Santo, where favorable conditions and modern techniques have pushed production up 28.3 percent.
Global market response included a sharp price increase in May, which eased in June as Brazil’s robust harvest helped calm supply concerns. Brazil continues to lead in logistics efficiency, with over 90 percent of exports processed through major ports. From July 2024 to May 2025, export volumes declined by 2 percent year over year, yet export revenues reached a record $13.69 billion, the highest for any single crop year. Arabica remains the dominant export, with specialty and premium coffees maintaining an important share despite modest output declines.

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