CropGPT - Coffee - Week 26

CropGPT - Coffee

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global coffee market as of June 29, 2025, focusing on production forecasts, climatic impacts, and market dynamics across key coffee-producing regions.

• Brazil's 2025 coffee output is forecast at 55.7 million bags, up 2.7% from the previous year. This growth is largely attributed to a 28.3% surge in Robusta production in Espirito Santo, while Arabica yields have declined due to drought and cyclical patterns. Harvest progress currently stands at 17.8% overall, with Robusta leading, aided by above-average rainfall in Minas Gerais. However, persistent colder and drier conditions continue to pose risks to crop health.
• In Vietnam, continued drought has led to a downward revision of the production estimate to 26.5 million bags. This has resulted in a 17.1% drop in 2024 exports and a further 1.8% decline in export volumes through May 2025. Ethiopia, conversely, is poised for record production of 11.56 million bags and a projected 11.4% export increase, driven by climate-resilient farming and exchange liberalization. Nonetheless, cooler, drier weather in Oromia and SNMP regions threatens fruit development.
• The global coffee market is currently shaped by a mix of bearish and bullish forces. Supply-side optimism, stemming from Brazil’s recovery and rising ice inventories, is tempered by demand uncertainty, volatile pricing, and shipping disruptions. Meanwhile, concerns over weather-related crop stress in regions like Minas Gerais, Colombia, and Ethiopia provide upward pressure on prices.
• A projected structural deficit of 8.5 million bags of Arabica highlights long-term supply concerns. Declining export trends from major producers such as Brazil and Vietnam, along with technical indicators, suggest potential market downturns unless key resistance levels are maintained. These developments underscore a fragile global equilibrium, where short-term gains are offset by deeper vulnerabilities.