CropGPT - Canola - Week 21

CropGPT - Oils

This week’s episode delivers a concise overview of key developments in the global canola and rapeseed markets, with a focus on export trends, production forecasts, and market dynamics influenced by policy and weather variables.

• Russia: Rapeseed oil exports to China surged by 29% year-on-year, totaling $478.2 million from January to April 2025. In contrast, direct rapeseed exports dropped sharply to $13.1 million, primarily due to tightened export duties and quotas. Regional contributors like Udmurtia exported 2,276 tons of oil, reflecting Russia’s growing presence in the value-added export segment.
• Canada: Maintains its strategic export position to China, with rapeseed shipments valued at $695 million. In rapeseed oil exports, Canada ranks second to Russia, supplying $134.2 million worth to China. A production increase of 1.5 million tons is forecasted for the current marketing year, although market volatility remains due to fluctuating weather conditions and recent price swings in July canola futures.
• China: Continues to diversify rapeseed oil sources, importing from 16 countries to mitigate geopolitical and supply risks. Growing dependence on Russian supplies highlights shifting trade alliances.
• European Union: Rapeseed production is projected to rise to 19.15 million tons in 2025/26, a 2.29 million-ton increase. Regional disparities remain, with Romania expecting higher output and France facing declines, adding to internal market uncertainty.
• Ukraine: Benefited from recent rainfall that improved crop conditions despite earlier frost damage. Forward prices for July deliveries range from $515 to $525/ton, though farmer sentiment remains cautious regarding final yields and market direction.