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CropGPT - Soybeans - Week 20

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Manage episode 483505948 series 3663200
Content provided by CropGPT. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by CropGPT or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.

This episode provides a professional update on the global soybean market, highlighting harvest progress, export forecasts, and shifting demand dynamics across key regions including Brazil, China, and the broader global supply chain.

  • Brazil: The national soybean harvest is nearly complete, reaching 168.4 million tons. Mato Grosso remains the top-producing state, contributing over 50 million tons. However, drought conditions earlier in the season caused a significant 11-million-ton shortfall in Rio Grande do Sul, preventing Brazil from achieving a potential record harvest of 180 million tons. Looking forward, production area is expected to increase modestly by 1.67%, totaling approximately 13 million hectares. Yet, Mato Grosso is forecasted to see a 7.3% production decline due to an 8.8% drop in productivity. Despite logistical and financial headwinds, Brazil is projected to export 107 million tons this marketing year—heavily influenced by U.S.–China trade dynamics.
  • Input Costs and Finance: Brazilian farmers have already secured 60–80% of their fertilizer requirements to manage cost risks. However, elevated interest rates and tight credit conditions may limit future expansion and adoption of advanced agricultural technologies.
  • China: China is expected to reduce soybean imports by 2.8% to 95.8 million tons for the 2025/26 cycle, as the government pushes to lower the proportion of soybean meal in livestock feed. Earlier projections had anticipated a sharper reduction to 94.6 million tons, signaling a more gradual transition under evolving domestic agricultural policy.
  continue reading

60 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 483505948 series 3663200
Content provided by CropGPT. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by CropGPT or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.

This episode provides a professional update on the global soybean market, highlighting harvest progress, export forecasts, and shifting demand dynamics across key regions including Brazil, China, and the broader global supply chain.

  • Brazil: The national soybean harvest is nearly complete, reaching 168.4 million tons. Mato Grosso remains the top-producing state, contributing over 50 million tons. However, drought conditions earlier in the season caused a significant 11-million-ton shortfall in Rio Grande do Sul, preventing Brazil from achieving a potential record harvest of 180 million tons. Looking forward, production area is expected to increase modestly by 1.67%, totaling approximately 13 million hectares. Yet, Mato Grosso is forecasted to see a 7.3% production decline due to an 8.8% drop in productivity. Despite logistical and financial headwinds, Brazil is projected to export 107 million tons this marketing year—heavily influenced by U.S.–China trade dynamics.
  • Input Costs and Finance: Brazilian farmers have already secured 60–80% of their fertilizer requirements to manage cost risks. However, elevated interest rates and tight credit conditions may limit future expansion and adoption of advanced agricultural technologies.
  • China: China is expected to reduce soybean imports by 2.8% to 95.8 million tons for the 2025/26 cycle, as the government pushes to lower the proportion of soybean meal in livestock feed. Earlier projections had anticipated a sharper reduction to 94.6 million tons, signaling a more gradual transition under evolving domestic agricultural policy.
  continue reading

60 episodes

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