CropGPT - Soybeans - Week 20

CropGPT - Oils

This episode provides a professional update on the global soybean market, highlighting harvest progress, export forecasts, and shifting demand dynamics across key regions including Brazil, China, and the broader global supply chain.

• Brazil: The national soybean harvest is nearly complete, reaching 168.4 million tons. Mato Grosso remains the top-producing state, contributing over 50 million tons. However, drought conditions earlier in the season caused a significant 11-million-ton shortfall in Rio Grande do Sul, preventing Brazil from achieving a potential record harvest of 180 million tons. Looking forward, production area is expected to increase modestly by 1.67%, totaling approximately 13 million hectares. Yet, Mato Grosso is forecasted to see a 7.3% production decline due to an 8.8% drop in productivity. Despite logistical and financial headwinds, Brazil is projected to export 107 million tons this marketing year—heavily influenced by U.S.–China trade dynamics.
• Input Costs and Finance: Brazilian farmers have already secured 60–80% of their fertilizer requirements to manage cost risks. However, elevated interest rates and tight credit conditions may limit future expansion and adoption of advanced agricultural technologies.
• China: China is expected to reduce soybean imports by 2.8% to 95.8 million tons for the 2025/26 cycle, as the government pushes to lower the proportion of soybean meal in livestock feed. Earlier projections had anticipated a sharper reduction to 94.6 million tons, signaling a more gradual transition under evolving domestic agricultural policy.