The Retail Death Spiral Has Begun

Eurodollar University

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It was a trifecta of disinflation disaster in today's numbers, with Walmart adding to the woes with its own deteriorating environment. Retail sales were more than soft, industrial output fell, but most concerning prices fell sharply - including wholesale services costs crashing the most on record.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Walmart Q1 earnings
https://corporate.walmart.com/content/dam/corporate/documents/newsroom/2025/05/15/walmart-releases-q1-fy26-earnings/q1-fy26-earnings-release.pdf

CNN Walmart warns it will raise prices because of tariffs
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/business/walmart-prices-tariffs

CNBC Walmart CFO says price hikes from tariffs could start later this month, as retailer beats on earnings
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.html

Bloomberg US Retail Sales Barely Rise, Suggesting Some Spending Pullback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-retail-sales-barely-rise-suggesting-some-spending-pullback

Bloomberg US Producer Prices Fell Unexpectedly in April as Margins Shrank
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-producer-prices-fall-unexpectedly-as-margins-decline

Reuters US manufacturing output falls in April on weak auto production
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-manufacturing-output-falls-april-weak-auto-production-2025-05-15/

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