One Weather Model is Bullish...For Now

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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0:00 GFS Turns Dry
3:13 Wildfire Smoke
6:38 Ag Barometer
8:59 Ukraine Grain Update
10:20 White House and Trade
🌦️ Weather Models Diverge & Canadian Smoke Returns! 🌫️
🌽 Forecast Shift?
Some US weather models have trended drier! The latest GFS run shows minimal Corn Belt rainfall in the 8-14 day outlook. But don’t jump the gun—Euro offers a wetter view with near-normal precipitation. Recent rains hit NE, IA, MN, KS, MO, WI & IL. Radar’s active again this morning.
🔥 Wildfire Smoke Update
Over 200 wildfires are burning in Canada, with smoke spreading as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. Minnesota is under a statewide air quality alert, while WI and MI face dangerous conditions. Smoke exposure isn't a crop killer short-term, but prolonged haze could hurt yields. 👃🚫🌱
🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rises!
The Ag Economy Barometer hit 158 in May—its highest since May 2021! Farmers are feeling better about both the present and future 📈. Worries about tariffs remain, but fewer producers expect major income hits. 🔍
🌾 Ukraine Crop Trouble
Ukraine's grain production could fall 10% this season due to weather delays and war disruptions. Oilseed production is also projected lower. Still, Black Sea wheat exports remain stable, and analysts expect nearly 41mmt in grain exports.
🤝 Trade Talks Heat Up
The White House is pushing for new trade agreements, urging partners to submit their best offers by today. Countries like Vietnam, Japan & India are in discussions. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to return July 8, so negotiations are ramping up fast. 📅
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