These Rains are Not Bullish

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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0:00 Rain on the Radar
2:58 Monday Selloff
4:38 Crop Progress & Conditions
11:11 Weaker US Dollar?
13:02 Crude Rally
14:21 Grain Shipments

🌧️ Stormy Skies and Slumping Soybeans! 🌾
🌩️ Weather Update
Radar lit up this morning across the western Corn Belt! Nebraska, Iowa, and parts of the Plains saw active storms. CropProphet expects 1.5" of rain this week, with more on the way next week. Temps look cool out west ❄️ and warm in the east 🔥 — but overall, this remains a non-bullish setup for grains. Some of the driest areas are finally catching a drink! 🌧️🌽
📉 Grain Market Moves
Soybeans slid to a 2-month low on improved Brazil outlook and China trade tensions.
Corn dipped as growing conditions improved.
Wheat bucked the trend, up on a weaker dollar 💵 and Ukraine/Russia tensions.
🌱 Crop Ratings Snapshot
Corn: 69% G/E—slight gain from last week, planting 93% done ✅
Soybeans: 67% G/E in initial rating, 84% planted
Winter Wheat: 52% G/E—best since 2019! 🌟
Spring Wheat: 50% G/E—up, but still well below average 📉
💵 Dollar Outlook
Wall Street banks like Goldman and Morgan Stanley expect a weaker dollar ahead, driven by Fed cuts and Trump’s economic playbook. Foreign currencies may get a boost! 📊📉
🛢️ Oil Bounces Back
Crude rallied 3% to $62.52/barrel 🚀 on OPEC+ decisions and a falling US rig count. Still down YTD, but experts say cuts could tighten supplies.
🚢 Export Action
Corn: 62M bu—beat expectations!
Soybeans: 10M bu—down from last year
Wheat: 20M bu—strong vs. a year ago
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