Why AI Search Advertising Could Reach $25 Billion By 2029

Retail Media Breakfast Club

EMARKETER's bold projection—AI-powered search ads surging from $1B to over $25B by 2029—isn’t just hype. From structured product feeds in LLMs to Shopify’s latest catalog API, the foundations of conversational commerce are already reshaping the retail media landscape.

I unpack the key infrastructure shifts, consumer behavior trends, and strategic moves by giants like Walmart, Amazon, and Shopify. Plus, I dive into why attribution is about to get messier—and what that means for brands navigating AI search advertising. If you’re in media buying, eCommerce, or just curious about where digital ads are headed, this one’s for you.

Timeline Summary:

[0:26] - How live product feeds are being wired into AI systems

[1:09] - Shopify’s new catalog API and what it means for real-time shopping

[2:03] - The growth path from $1B to $25B in AI search ad spend

[3:01] - Adobe survey insights on how consumers are already using AI for shopping

[4:00] - Why Shopify metadata now acts as performance media

[5:00] - The different AI retail strategies: Walmart, Amazon, Shopify

[6:10] - The attribution headache: When chat starts the journey and merchant wallets close it

[8:00] - What brands need to do now to get ready for AI-driven search advertising

Links & further reading

• Link to my original post on Forbes.com on May 31st, 2025
• EMARKETER's forecast
• An Adobe survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers reveals that 39% have already used generative AI for online shopping
• Shopify’s Catalog API, quietly launched during the company’s Summer '25 Edition rollout on May 21st
• Scot Wingo's article mapping the AI agent ecosystem - Retailgentic
• I recently wrote how Walmart is pursuing a dual path of AI agents
• Jason Goldberg (Publicis) in a new white paper on AI