Complexity In Government Contracting: Jim Malone's Journey Into Computational Social Science The Flux By Epistemix podcast

41:25

In a world full of linear thinking, Dan Eichelsdoerfer is building a company grounded in complexity. In this episode, Dan joins The Flux to discuss why agent-based models are finally ready for prime time and how Macrocosm is creating tools to simulate economic and energy systems with more nuance, flexibility, and realism than ever before. Dan talks about the interdisciplinary “glory days” of modeling inside Macrocosm, where economists, physicists, and data scientists come together to break old paradigms and challenge assumptions. From applying agent-based models to simulate energy markets to envisioning what sustainable economics might actually look like, this is a masterclass in thinking differently to make better decisions. If you'd like to reach out to Dan and his team, email them at info@macrocosm.group.…

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From Chaos to Clarity with Doyne Farmer: Why Agent-Based Models Matter Now 47:20

19 days ago47:20

47:20

On this episode of The Flux, agent-based models (ABMs) have long lived on the fringes of mainstream economics but that’s changing. Doyne Farmer breaks down how advances in computing and data are fueling a new era of bottom-up modeling. He explains where ABMs outperform traditional models, why certain fields (like epidemiology and traffic systems) adopted them earlier, and how economics is finally catching up. We explore the structural and behavioral complexity that ABMs are uniquely suited to handle and what it will take to shift institutional thinking in policy and business.…

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Mining Meaning: Laura Sheppard on Gender, Academia, and the Power of Public Data 39:40

5 weeks ago39:40

39:40

In this episode of The Flux, we talk with Laura Sheppard, a research fellow at University College London’s Centre for Longitudinal Studies, about how data mining can uncover powerful insights from unexpected sources. Laura shares her work using the British Library’s Ethos dataset, a comprehensive record of UK doctoral theses - to explore gender inequality in higher education. We discuss the process of inferring gender from names, the challenges of working with messy or incomplete data, and how publicly available datasets can be creatively repurposed to answer socially important questions. Laura also touches on her work with The Trussell Trust, combining geographic and census data to map food bank accessibility in the UK. This conversation is a deep dive into the art and science of data mining, and how thoughtful assumptions, transparent methodology, and a bit of creativity can turn raw data into meaningful research.…

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From Micro-Behaviors to Macro-Patterns: Exploring Agent-Based Models with Andrew Crooks 30:12

6 weeks ago30:12

30:12

In this episode of The Flux , host John Cordier sits down with Andrew Crooks at the Complex Social Systems Society Conference in Santa Fe. They dive into the world of agent-based modeling (ABM) - what it is, why it matters, and how it helps us simulate and better understand human behavior in complex systems. From simulating traffic jams to modeling social influence on vaccine uptake, Andrew shares how data, geography, and synthetic populations are revolutionizing our ability to forecast and inform decisions. They also explore the growing role of AI tools in democratizing modeling, the evolution of computational capabilities, and even ask: what if we had run a simulation before Brexit? Whether you're a policy maker, student, or just ABM-curious, this episode is full of insights on how to think more strategically about the future - no flux capacitor required .…

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From Neural Networks to Synthetic Populations: Hamdi Kavak’s Journey 25:59

10 weeks ago25:59

25:59

What if we could predict the impact of a pandemic, a policy change, or even a war before it happens? Hamdi Kavak joins The Flux to discuss how agent-based modeling enables researchers to explore "what if" scenarios and simulate real-world behaviors at both small and massive scales. We dive into the applications of ABM in government-funded projects, the difficulties of modeling millions of agents, and how better communication of simulation insights could improve public trust in data-driven decision-making. If you're curious about the future of modeling and simulation, you won’t want to miss this conversation.…

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From Curiosity to Complexity: Paul Amoruso’s Journey into Agent-Based Modeling 18:39

12 weeks ago18:39

18:39

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, sits down with Paul Amoruso to explore his unexpected journey into the world of agent-based modeling (ABM). What started as a course recommendation turned into a passion for understanding complex systems and using data to drive better decisions. Paul shares insights from his academic path, the value of interdisciplinary collaboration, and why ABMs foster explainability in research. He also discusses how modeling could reshape fields like education and improve knowledge diffusion. Plus, in our What the Flux moment, Paul reflects on how we might have transformed traditional learning methods if we had embraced active learning sooner. Tune in for an engaging conversation on curiosity, computational social science, and the power of modeling to inform the future.…

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Complexity in Government Contracting: Jim Malone's Journey into Computational Social Science 18:21

13 weeks ago18:21

18:21

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier interviews Jim Malone at the Complex Social Systems Conference in Santa Fe. Jim, an experienced government acquisition professional, shares his fascinating journey from contracting to pursuing a PhD in Computational Social Science. He discusses the importance of understanding complexity in systems, particularly in government contracting and policy-making. Jim explores how modeling and data analysis can revolutionize our approach to measuring value in federal spending and its impact on various sectors. This thought-provoking conversation delves into the intersection of complexity science, policy, and the potential for creating more effective and value-driven government processes.…

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Decision-Making in Complex Systems: Insights from Agent-Based Modeling with Aaron Frank 38:48

17 weeks ago38:48

38:48

Welcome to The Flux! In this episode, host John Cordier, CEO at Epistemix, explores the intricacies of agent-based modeling and its impact on decision-making with Aaron Frank. Recorded live at the Complex Social System Society of America's conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Aaron shares his journey from traditional national security research to computational models and agent-based simulations. The discussion covers the evolution and application of agent-based modeling in national security, urban planning, public health, and beyond. Dive deep into how these models can create more informed decisions amidst uncertainty and their potential to transform various sectors. Join us for an enlightening conversation on modeling, data, and the future of complex systems analysis. 00:00 Introduction to The Flux 00:47 Meet Aaron Frank 01:16 Journey into Agent-Based Modeling 01:39 War Gaming and Computational Models 04:30 Challenges in Gaming and Simulations 08:32 Advancements in Agent-Based Modeling 18:39 Agent-Based Modeling in Urban Design 23:12 Policy Implications and Future Directions 35:47 Advice for Aspiring Modelers…

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Democracy 3.0: Bridging Policy and Technology with Tom Pike 24:04

19 weeks ago24:04

24:04

In this episode of The Flux, hosted by John Cordier, CEO at Epistemix, we delve into the fascinating world of agent-based modeling (ABM) with Tom Pike, co-lead for MESA. Recorded live at the Complex Systems Society conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Tom shares insights on democratizing ABM through Python, its significance in decision-making, and innovative applications such as COVID-19 policy modeling in Costa Rica. The discussion explores the accessibility challenges of ABM, the potential of large language models, and the transformative vision of 'Democracy 3.0.' Tune in to learn about the impact of ABM in fields ranging from economics to public policy and how it can lead to better decisions for a complex world. 00:00 Introduction to The Flux 00:47 Meet Tom Pike: Agent-Based Modeling Expert 01:29 The Origins and Growth of MESA 04:05 Innovative Applications of Agent-Based Modeling 05:06 Future of Agent-Based Modeling and Accessibility 06:58 Economic and Policy Implications 10:17 Challenges and Opportunities in Complex Systems 20:47 Advice for Aspiring Modelers…

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Randy Burgh: Insights from Economic Development and Complexity Economics 37:40

19 weeks ago37:40

37:40

This episode explores the economic development potential of technology developed in New Mexico, focusing on industry-based research and the collaboration between companies, universities, and government labs. It delves into the evolution of technology, highlighting key insights from Dr. Brown of the Santa Fe Institute, whose work integrates the concepts of evolutionary technology and complexity economics, particularly through agent-based modeling and combinatorial science. 00:00 Introduction to Economic Development in New Mexico 00:09 The Triple Helix Model: Industry, Universities, and Government 00:40 Shout Out to Dr. Brown and His Contributions 00:54 Complexity Economics and Technology Evolution 01:12 Understanding Combinatorial Science…

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Navigating Complexity: Timothy Clancy on Modeling and Policy-Making 32:58

23 weeks ago32:58

32:58

In this episode of The Flux, hosted by John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, we hear from Timothy Clancy, a researcher from the University of Maryland's START program. Recorded at the Complex Social Systems Society of the Americas Conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Clancy shares insights from his career, which spans government work and applied studies on national security. They discuss the evolution of modeling in policy-making, the challenges of visualizing complex data, and the importance of building trust with policy-makers. Clancy emphasizes the need for simplicity in communication, the enduring nature of integrating soft skills with technical models, and the crucial role of understanding organizational dynamics to drive impactful decisions. The conversation also touches on specific models he has worked on, including those related to countering ISIS and studying violence and instability, illustrating the importance of robust, scenario-driven simulations in informing policy. 00:00 Introduction to The Flux 00:47 Meet Timothy Clancy 01:03 Timothy's Background and Work 01:45 Challenges in Policy Making with Data 02:58 Visualization and Communication in Modeling 05:29 Timothy's Career Shift and Focus 07:00 Emerging State Actor Model 12:40 Modeling Sentiment and Radicalization 20:35 Counterfactuals and Policy Making 23:08 Navigating Policy Making Institutions 31:41 Conference Insights and Conclusion…

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Exploring Agent-Based Modeling for Complex Policy Challenges with Sherwin Brown 10:36

25 weeks ago10:36

10:36

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier, CEO at Epistemix, interviews Sherwin Brown from MITRE. Sherwin shares his journey into agent-based modeling, starting from his background in health management and policy. He discusses the role of data science and analytics in solving complex problems, such as monitoring the impact of the Affordable Care Act and tackling issues like homelessness and opioid overdoses. Sherwin emphasizes the importance of visual storytelling in agent-based modeling and its potential to support decision-making in policy contexts. The episode also highlights the importance of community and curiosity in the field of agent-based modeling. 00:00 Introduction to The Flux Podcast 00:45 Meet Sherwin Brown from MITRE 00:59 Sherwin's Journey into Agent-Based Modeling 01:59 Affordable Care Act and Data Science Competitions 02:21 Exploring Natural Language Processing 04:04 Agent-Based Modeling in Policy Making 05:54 Complex Relationship Between Homelessness and Opioid Overdoses 07:04 Complex Social Systems Society Conference 08:05 Future of Agent-Based Modeling 09:11 Advice for Students Interested in Agent-Based Modeling 10:17 Closing Remarks…

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Exploring Data-Driven Decision Making with Bill Rand 40:22

27 weeks ago40:22

40:22

In this episode of 'The Flux,' we dive deep into data-driven decision making with Bill Rand from NC State University. Join us as Bill discusses his work in agent-based modeling, social media misinformation, and various innovative projects. Discover how agent-based modeling can provide insights into human behavior, business analytics, and even intergenerational trauma. Learn how different modeling approaches can help forecast outcomes, refine decision-making processes, and provide better policy and business strategies. Perfect for anyone interested in AI, data science, and the social sciences. 00:00 Introduction to the Flux Podcast 00:20 Meet Bill Rand: Data-Driven Decision Making 02:42 Applications of Agent-Based Modeling 31:21 What the Flux Moment 32:02 Reflections and Methodological Insights…

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Revolutionizing Engineering: The Power of AI and Simulation with Dave Freed 39:32

29 weeks ago39:32

39:32

In this episode of The Flux, join Dave Freed, Senior Director at Ansys, as he delves into the transformative world of computer simulations. With a rich history from Exa Corporation to OnScale and Ansys, Dave explores the evolution and future of simulations, highlighting their pivotal role in automotive, aerospace, and nuclear engineering. Discover how simulations have advanced to replace costly physical testing, improve accuracy, and prevent errors. Learn about intriguing real-world applications, the integration of AI in automating complex tasks, and the surge of simulation in life sciences. Dave also shares personal experiences and acknowledges mentors who've shaped his illustrious career. 00:00 Introduction to The Flux Podcast 00:19 Meet Dave Freed: CTO and Simulation Expert 00:41 Dave's Career Journey in Simulation 11:59 The Value of Simulation 22:18 Simulation Accessibility and User Experience 31:49 Future of Simulation and AI Integration…

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Transforming Data into Decisions: Insights from Matt Madden at BYU 44:47

31 weeks ago44:47

44:47

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier interviews Matt Madden, Director of the BYU Marketing Lab, about his work in making complex statistics and marketing analytics accessible. Madden discusses the lab's unique approach, which allows students to apply their skills in real-world consulting projects. They delve into key topics like market research techniques such as conjoint analysis, which helps students and clients understand consumer behavior more accurately than traditional surveys. Madden shares his journey from math education to statistics and ultimately to marketing, providing insights into how data can guide consumer insights while acknowledging its limitations. He highlights the challenges of relying solely on past data, emphasizing the need for creativity and risk-taking in decision-making. They also discuss integrating newer technologies, like AI and machine learning, into marketing analytics, exploring both the opportunities and concerns associated with increased data availability. Madden further addresses the importance of qualitative data, its challenges, and the evolving nature of market research. The episode closes with advice for students entering the marketing field, focusing on the importance of resilience, saying "no" to prevent burnout and the necessity of balancing data-driven decisions with human creativity and empathy. This episode is a must-listen for marketers, data enthusiasts, and business professionals seeking to harness data analytics while maintaining a consumer-focused, ethical approach. 00:00 Introduction to The Flux 00:45 Meet Matt Madden: BYU Marketing Lab Director 01:03 The BYU Marketing Lab: Real Consulting Experience 02:08 Conjoint Analysis: A Market Research Technique 05:59 From Math Education to Marketing Analytics 07:32 Predictive Modeling in Healthcare 11:14 The Future of Marketing Analytics 13:39 Challenges in Data Privacy and Forecasting 20:02 Entrepreneurship and Qualitative Data at Scale 24:18 Industry's Overexposure to Surveys 24:44 Consumer Feedback Fatigue 25:32 A Rare Example of Effective Feedback 27:04 The Importance of Data in Business Decisions 27:58 Challenges for Small Businesses in Using Data 30:30 Disaster Recovery in Data Analytics 32:59 The Future of Modeling and Machine Learning 35:33 Advancements in User Interface and Visualization 37:28 The Evolution of Programming Languages 41:19 Advice for Graduating Students…

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Navigating Complex Systems with Don Burke: Epidemiology, AI, and Modeling 44:31

33 weeks ago44:31

44:31

In this episode of The Flux , host John Cordier sits down with Don Burke, co-founder of Epistemix and a trailblazing epidemiologist, to explore the fascinating intersection of infectious disease research, artificial intelligence, and agent-based modeling (ABM). Burke shares his journey from a traditional career in infectious disease research to becoming a passionate advocate for modeling and simulation, offering a behind-the-scenes look at his groundbreaking work with HIV, vaccines, and global disease prevention. Burke recounts his early days in the military, developing vaccines for tropical diseases and his epiphany when he first encountered genetic algorithms and artificial intelligence. This moment sparked a shift in his approach to public health, leading him to apply simulation methods to complex biological and social systems, ultimately culminating in his co-founding of Epistemix. He discusses his pivotal role in creating agent-based models for predicting disease outbreaks like smallpox, avian flu, and most recently, COVID-19, illustrating the power of simulation in making better decisions in public health. Beyond infectious disease, Burke reflects on the future of modeling, emphasizing its potential to not only tackle epidemics but also simulate human behavior, social contagions, and decision-making processes—showing how these tools are critical for addressing broader societal challenges. Throughout, Burke conveys his belief that interdisciplinary collaboration and data-driven insights are essential for solving today’s most pressing global issues. This episode offers an in-depth, accessible exploration of how AI, computational social science, and agent-based modeling are shaping the future of public health and decision-making across industries. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to the Flux Podcast 00:19 Meet Don Berg: From Infectious Disease Physician to Modeler 00:30 Early Career and Vaccine Development 01:47 HIV Research and Genetic Algorithms 04:29 The Epiphany: Modeling Viral Evolution 06:52 Transition to Johns Hopkins and Building Modeling Skills 08:16 9/11 and the Rise of Biodefense Modeling 12:42 The MIDAS Program and Agent-Based Modeling 20:23 Expanding Agent-Based Modeling Beyond Infectious Diseases 26:43 The Campfire Concept: Collaborative Modeling 30:12 Lessons from DA Henderson and Smallpox Eradication 32:49 Reflections on a Career in Modeling and Simulation 34:49 The Future of Modeling and Simulation 39:11 Current Projects and Historical Insights…

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The Tipping Point for Agent-Based Modeling with Rob Axtell 40:00

34 weeks ago40:00

40:00

In this episode of The Flux, John Cordier interviews Rob Axtell from George Mason University, where he leads the largest graduate program in agent-based modeling (ABM) globally. Axtell shares his journey into complex systems modeling and how the field has evolved since the 1990s. He explains how George Mason’s Ph.D. program in Computational Social Science is shaping the next generation of experts who go on to roles in government, research, and the private sector. They discuss the power of agent-based models to simulate real-world dynamics, from consumer behavior to macroeconomics, highlighting the increasing availability of data and computing power that allows ABM to compete with traditional models used by institutions like central banks. Axtell emphasizes the need for more empirical grounding in ABM and the potential to build large-scale, highly detailed models, including the exciting possibility of simulating entire economies. Axtell also touches on the importance of modeling social complexity at the individual level, the challenges of past limitations in data, and the unique potential of ABM to provide a more accurate picture of systems like financial markets. For those new to the field, Axtell offers practical advice on getting started, emphasizing the value of tools like NetLogo as a gateway to ABM. Whether you're a student, researcher, or data enthusiast, this episode provides a deep dive into the cutting-edge applications of ABM and its future impact. 00:00 Welcome to The Flux Podcast 00:18 Meet Rob Axtell: Expert in Agent-Based Simulation 01:07 Overview of George Mason's Computational Social Science Program 01:45 Career Paths for Graduates 03:34 Rob Axtell Journey into Agent-Based Modeling 05:58 The Evolution and Impact of Agent-Based Models 08:37 Applications and Future of Agent-Based Modeling 11:35 Challenges and Opportunities in Agent-Based Modeling 14:06 The Importance of High-Fidelity Models 16:31 Policy Implications and Real-World Applications 29:41 Technical Advances and Future Directions 36:44 Advice for Aspiring Agent-Based Modelers 39:09 Conclusion and Final Thoughts…

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The Intersection of Science Fiction and Reality: A Conversation with Sam Arbesman 37:10

36 weeks ago37:10

37:10

In The Intersection of Science Fiction and Reality episode of The Flux podcast, host John Cordier engages in a conversation with Sam Arbesman, Scientist-in-Residence at Lux Capital and Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation. They explore how science fiction, video games, and computational social science intersect to influence real-world innovations. Harbisman shares how early experiences like playing SimCity and reading Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy sparked his interest in complexity science and computational modeling. They discuss the concept of psychohistory from Foundation, and how it inspired modern computational social science to analyze societal behaviors on a large scale. They also touch on how venture capital plays a role in transforming science fiction ideas into reality, with Lux Capital supporting innovations that blur the lines between science fact and fiction. Arbesman reflects on the increasing complexity of technological systems, emphasizing how understanding these systems requires new tools and thinking, akin to studying biological systems. Ultimately, this episode highlights the value of scenario planning, counterfactuals, and complexity science in decision-making and innovation, making a compelling case for the importance of these methodologies in navigating an uncertain future. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:16 Meet Sam Arbesman 01:00 Sam's Journey into Complex Systems 01:34 The Influence of SimCity and Science Fiction 03:03 The Foundation Trilogy and Psychohistory 07:01 Science Fiction's Real-World Impact 13:08 The Role of Venture Capital in Innovation 14:19 The Future of Deep Tech and Emerging Technologies 19:12 The Importance of Counterfactuals and Scenario Planning 30:20 Encouraging Complexity Science Education 35:44 The Future of Simulation and Computational Science…

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The Growing Impact of Agent-Based Modeling with Matt Kohler 32:21

38 weeks ago32:21

32:21

In this episode of The Flux, John Cordier interviews Matt Kohler, Applied Complexity Scientist at MITRE and President of the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas, about the transformative power of agent-based modeling (ABM). Kohler explains how ABM simulates complex human systems and helps decision-makers understand the ripple effects of their choices. From anthropology to economics, Kohler shares examples of how ABM is helping scientists and leaders explore new insights. As technological advancements in data, hardware, and software drive ABM to new heights, Kohler discusses its expanding role in solving real-world challenges, from traffic modeling to financial crises. With its potential to revolutionize industries by providing a clearer view of how complex systems evolve, ABM is poised to become an indispensable tool for policy-makers, researchers, and organizations. This episode is for anyone interested in the intersection of complexity science and decision-making, and how ABM is shaping the future of predictive modeling. Timestamps: 01:00 Matt Kohler's Flux Moment 03:17 Agent-Based Modeling Insights 05:13 Applications and Future of Agent-Based Modeling 08:56 Challenges and Successes in Agent-Based Modeling 23:41 Economic Theories and Agent-Based Modeling 26:58 Getting Started with Agent-Based Modeling 29:10 Future of Computational Social Science…

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The Future of Agent-Based Modeling: Insights from Josh Epstein 39:05

40 weeks ago39:05