Capitalmind looks at stocks, bonds, funds and the macro to bring you their view on the Indian financial markets. We discuss all things related to investing at our focussed podcast that keeps it simple. For more, go to capitalmind.in and to invest with us, visit capitalmindwealth.com
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Practical Lessons from Tobias Carlisle | Value Investing, Buffett and the Importance of Survival
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In this episode, we sit down for a deep dive into lessons from value investor Tobias Carlisle, exploring several key insights from our conversations with him over the years. In this Halloween-themed episode (complete with plenty of Reese's cups), we break down Toby's perspectives on what makes an ideal business, the critical importance of survival in investing, portfolio concentration vs diversification, and whether today's tech giants can maintain their dominance. We cover how See's Candy exemplifies the theoretical perfect business model, why survival should be every investor's first priority, and the delicate balance between running concentrated portfolios that maximize returns versus diversified ones that investors can actually stick with through tough times. We also dig into the age-old debate of pure value versus quality value investing, with Toby sharing his data-driven insights on which approach truly works best. We also explore the importance of writing down your investment thesis at the time you make it. As Toby explains, this simple practice helps prevent revisionist history and allows you to learn from both your successes and mistakes. Throughout the episode, we weave in our own experiences and perspectives while maintaining the conversational, occasionally sugar-fueled style our listeners have come to expect. Whether you're a value investor, a financial planner, or just someone interested in improving your investment process, there are valuable takeaways here for everyone. Join us for this candid discussion about what really matters in investing, sprinkled with just the right amount of Halloween candy references and questionable lighting setups.
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ShareManage episode 449389005 series 3614383
Content provided by Excess Returns. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Excess Returns or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.
In this episode, we sit down for a deep dive into lessons from value investor Tobias Carlisle, exploring several key insights from our conversations with him over the years. In this Halloween-themed episode (complete with plenty of Reese's cups), we break down Toby's perspectives on what makes an ideal business, the critical importance of survival in investing, portfolio concentration vs diversification, and whether today's tech giants can maintain their dominance. We cover how See's Candy exemplifies the theoretical perfect business model, why survival should be every investor's first priority, and the delicate balance between running concentrated portfolios that maximize returns versus diversified ones that investors can actually stick with through tough times. We also dig into the age-old debate of pure value versus quality value investing, with Toby sharing his data-driven insights on which approach truly works best. We also explore the importance of writing down your investment thesis at the time you make it. As Toby explains, this simple practice helps prevent revisionist history and allows you to learn from both your successes and mistakes. Throughout the episode, we weave in our own experiences and perspectives while maintaining the conversational, occasionally sugar-fueled style our listeners have come to expect. Whether you're a value investor, a financial planner, or just someone interested in improving your investment process, there are valuable takeaways here for everyone. Join us for this candid discussion about what really matters in investing, sprinkled with just the right amount of Halloween candy references and questionable lighting setups.
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Fourth Turning is Here. But It Isn’t What You Think | Practical Lessons from Neil Howe 55:42
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig revisit one of the most popular interviews on Excess Returns—our deep-dive conversation with Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning . But instead of leaning into the usual doom-and-gloom narrative, they unpack the misunderstood lessons at the heart of Howe’s generational theory. From inflation and leadership to passive investing and community, Matt and Dave explore the deeper patterns shaping our society and markets—and why so many people miss the bigger picture. 🎙️ Topics discussed include: Why the Fourth Turning is more about renewal than collapse The misunderstood role of inflation in crisis periods How generational memory loss fuels leadership failure Why passive investing might be the ultimate Millennial move Gen X’s emergence as a uniquely flawed (and necessary) leadership class How conflict can become the incubator for lasting community This is not a forecast—it’s a framework. And it might just change how you see the world around you.…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 When Easy Markets Hide Hard Truths | Practical Lessons from Richard Bernstein 59:43
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we highlight the biggest lessons from our Excess Returns interview with renowned strategist Richard Bernstein. We explore the paradox of today’s markets: why they feel easy, and what hard truths may be hiding beneath the surface. From the risks of narrow market leadership to the role of structural flows and investor complacency, Richard shares practical lessons drawn from decades of market experience. We discuss: Why narrow markets may signal greater risk than investors realize The danger of mistaking easy markets for safe ones How structural flows can prop up markets despite rising risks The behavioral traps investors fall into during seemingly easy times What history teaches us about mispricings and market resilience Whether you’re focused on protecting capital or positioning for the next cycle, this conversation offers valuable insights into today’s market dynamics.…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 QE Myths. Free Trade Lies. Fatal Mistakes | 12 Great Investors Share Their Most Unpopular Beliefs 51:34
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedSome of the most insightful investment conversations start with a single question: “What do you believe that most of your peers disagree with?” In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive into 11 controversial investing takes—from QE and technical analysis to macro obsession and fee structures. You’ll hear nuanced perspectives from top investors who challenge conventional wisdom, and you might even find yourself rethinking your own beliefs. 🧠 This is a fast-paced, thought-provoking ride through the investment ideas most likely to start a debate at your next finance happy hour. Topics Covered: Why QE may always be inflationary (Andy Constan) The case for separating advice fees from asset management fees (Rick Ferri) Why trimming and adding to positions might be a waste of time (Chris Mayer) A defense of free trade in a protectionist world (Jared Dillian) Why turnover isn't always a bad thing (Travis Prentice) Multidisciplinary investing vs. deep specialization (Cameron Dawson vs. Katie Stockton) When it’s OK to override your quant model (Joe Gubler) The trap of emulating famous investors (Rupert Mitchell) The entertainment vs. value tradeoff of macro (David Giroux) Rethinking shareholder primacy in today’s political landscape (Peter Atwater) Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro & Why QE is Inflationary (Andy Constan) 07:20 - Separate Fees for Advice & Management (Rick Ferri) 11:00 - No Trimming or Trading Around Positions (Chris Mayer) 15:30 - AI Will Be a Net Positive (Andrew Cohen) 19:00 - The Case for Free Trade (Jared Dillian) 23:30 - Turnover Isn't Always Bad (Travis Prentice) 27:00 - Multidisciplinary Investing (Cameron Dawson) 31:00 - Investing Solely on Technicals (Katie Stockton) 34:00 - Overriding the Quant Model (Joe Gubler) 41:00 - Don’t Try to Be the Next Buffett (Rupert Mitchell) 44:00 - Macro Doesn’t Always Add Value (David Giroux) 48:00 - Shareholders Don’t Come First Anymore (Peter Atwater)…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 20,000 Watched in Silence. Then Buffett Dropped the Bombshell. | What It Means for Berkshire 1:09:55
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this special episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Bogumil Baranowski to reflect on one of the most emotional and historic moments in financial history: Warren Buffett’s surprise announcement at the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. With commentary from voices who were in the room—and some who weren’t—we explore what it felt like, what it meant, and what comes next for Berkshire and Buffett’s legacy. Featuring clips from John Candeto, Adam Mead, Eric Markowitz, and Ted Merz, this is both a tribute and a thoughtful discussion on culture, succession, and enduring business values. Topics Covered: The emotional weight and historic nature of Buffett’s resignation Firsthand reactions from inside the room at the Berkshire meeting Why Buffett’s delivery was masterful—and why it mattered Reflections on the unique culture of Berkshire and its shareholder community The Buffett “shield” and what it means for Greg Abel and Berkshire's future Why more companies don’t emulate the Berkshire approach The role of tradition in building enduring businesses Personal stories of shareholders whose lives were changed by long-term compounding…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Great Distortion: The Hidden Impact of Passive Investing | Practical Lessons from Mike Green 52:36
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the profound impact of passive investing with one of the most provocative thinkers in the space—Mike Green. Mike has developed a framework that challenges traditional market assumptions, shedding light on how seemingly "passive" investment flows might be actively reshaping markets, valuations, and even systemic stability. Using clips from our interviews, Mike breaks down complex ideas with clarity, humor, and critical insight. This is a must-watch for anyone who wants to understand the hidden mechanics behind modern markets—and what they mean for your portfolio. Topics Covered: Why passive investors aren't truly passiveThe systemic risk behind the growth of index investingHow passive flows distort price discovery and market behavior The QDIA effect and its unintended consequences The breakdown of correlation between value and growth stocks Why international markets continue to underperform Mike's thoughts on unemployment data and the gig economy The real lesson investors should take from all this What individual investors can realistically do about it…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Sequence Risk Can Derail Your Retirement: Here is How to Stop It | Practical Lessons from Wade Pfau 1:02:38
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we dive deep into the fundamentals of retirement planning with one of the most respected researchers in the field—Wade Pfau. Wade is known for blending rigorous academic research with real-world financial advice. We explore his groundbreaking ideas on the 4% rule, sequence of returns risk, annuities, income frameworks, and his innovative Retirement Income Style Awareness (RISA) model. Whether you’re planning for retirement or advising others, this episode delivers valuable frameworks and perspectives you can apply immediately. **Topics Covered:** * Why the 4% rule is a U.S. artifact—and where it doesn’t work* The importance of sequence risk and how early retirement returns dominate long-term outcomes* Wade’s “Four Ls” of retirement planning: Lifestyle, Longevity, Liquidity, and Legacy* The limitations of fixed withdrawal strategies and the value of variable withdrawal rules* The misunderstood role of annuities and why risk pooling matters* How RISA helps investors match their personality and preferences to the right retirement strategy* The power of flexibility and focusing on what really matters in retirement…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Seismic Shift Markets Are Missing | Practical Lessons from Ben Hunt & Grant Williams 1:05:57
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we dive deep into some of the most thought-provoking ideas from two of the most original minds in investing: Ben Hunt and Grant Williams. Through a curated selection of powerful clips, we explore how markets have transformed from mechanisms of capital allocation to platforms of narrative and speculation. Ben and Grant challenge conventional wisdom, question the stories we tell ourselves about investing, and propose frameworks for navigating a radically different market landscape going forward. Whether it's the evolution of CEO incentives, the lifecycle of narratives, or why staying rich is harder than getting rich, this episode is packed with timeless insights. Topics Covered: Why what worked for 40 years may not work anymore The market as a political utility and what that really means The disconnection between stock prices and real businesses How narratives shape market behavior and prices The language of growth vs. value in investingThe CEO’s evolving role as a storytellerUsing the narrative lifecycle as an investment framework Speculation vs. investing and how to tell the difference How Ben Hunt applies the minimax regret framework to life decisions…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Diversification Delusion | The Risk that Leaves Both Stocks and Bonds Exposed 59:47
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, Jack and Matt revisit one of the most debated topics in investing: the fate of the classic 60/40 portfolio. Drawing on insights from some of the smartest minds in finance—Bob Elliott, Adam Butler, Warren Pies, Rick Ferri, Jared Dillian, Andrew Beer, and Cliff Asness—they explore whether the traditional stock/bond mix still makes sense in today's environment or if investors need to rethink diversification, risk, and portfolio construction entirely. With perspectives ranging from strong defenses of simplicity to sophisticated alternative strategies, this episode is a deep dive into what investors should consider in building resilient portfolios going forward. Topics Covered: Why the 60/40 portfolio worked—and why it might not anymore The impact of inflation, liquidity, and regime change on asset allocation Risk parity and quadrant-based frameworks for understanding market environments The argument for real assets: real estate and commodities An overview of the Awesome Portfolio and its performance profile The rise of managed futures and how they improve diversification The psychology of investing in alternatives (and sticking with them) Rebalancing and the importance of sizing when adding alternatives Cliff Asness on high-volatility alternatives and long-term risk-taking How to think through alternatives as your portfolio grows…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Irrecoverable Error: Risk, Ruin, and the Rules of Wealth | Practical Lessons from Guy Spier 1:06:31
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski dive deep into the timeless investing wisdom of Guy Spier. Drawing from Spier’s interviews on both Excess Returns and Talking Billions, they explore crucial ideas about investing, risk, decision-making, and living a meaningful life. From understanding why letting your winners run can enhance returns to redefining true success, this episode is packed with practical insights for both investors and anyone seeking a richer, more thoughtful life.Topics Covered:Why holding your winners can be essential to long-term success The myth of the Fidelity “dead investor” study and what it teachesRisk, ruin, and why preserving capital matters more than getting richLessons from multi-generational wealth and building lasting fortunesUnderstanding the true cost of tinkering with a portfolioDefining your circle of competence — and updating it over time How to avoid catastrophic financial outcomesRethinking what success really means beyond money Aligning your inner and outer self to find freedom and authenticity Managing other people’s money with care, respect, and humility Learning from mistakes and the importance of reputation The priceless value of community and true friendships…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Dark Side of Value Investing: Practical Lessons from Aswath Damodaran 1:08:07
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedJoin Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski as they play our favorite clips from both the Excess Returns and Talking Billions podcast interviews with Aswath Damodaran. This conversation unpacks Damodaran’s timeless insights on navigating uncertainty, embracing the process of investing, and finding comfort in a volatile market. From the ritualistic allure of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting to the pitfalls of factor investing, Main Topics Covered:The dangers of rigid, ritualistic value investing and the Berkshire Hathaway meeting’s cult-like atmosphere, contrasted with its networking value. Embracing uncertainty as a feature of investing, not a bug, and avoiding unhealthy coping mechanisms like denial or outsourcing. The limitations of factor investing, emphasizing the need to bring unique value to the table to achieve excess returns.The stock market as a reflection of real-world business value, not a place where money is made, and the futility of fighting market dynamics. The importance of loving the investing process over obsessing about beating the market, with diversification as a safeguard against hubris. Balancing comfort investments with high-risk, high-reward opportunities to build a resilient portfolio. The rise of passive investing and its potential to create opportunities for active investors as fewer people seek market mistakes. The "sleep test" for investors—framing choices with gratitude and perspective to maintain peace of mind.…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Tariffs Are Here. The Market is Down. Here is What It Means for Investors 1:05:02
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, dive into the complex world of tariffs, national debt, and economic policies under the current administration. With the S&P down 4% and markets reacting to recent policy shifts, we bring you insights from our previous interviews with Cullen Roche and Andy Constan to break down these pressing issues. This episode is designed for everyday investors and money managers alike, offering a balanced, practical perspective on navigating short-term market pain for potential long-term gains. Tune in as we hash out the facts, explore the implications, and share strategies to keep your portfolio steady amid the storm. Main Topics Covered: Tariffs Explained: A deep dive into how tariffs function as a corporate tax, their impact on domestic companies, and the challenges of passing costs to consumers. Market Reactions and Short-Term Pain: Analysis of the current market downturn and how policies like tariffs, immigration, and spending cuts contribute to anti-growth sentiment. Long-Term Goals of Policy Shifts: Discussion on the administration’s aim to onshore manufacturing and critical technologies, and the trade-offs involved. National Debt Concerns: Perspectives on whether the U.S. national debt poses an immediate crisis or a creeping inflationary risk, with insights from Cullen Roche and Andy Constan. DOGE Initiative: Examination of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a propaganda tool and realistic estimates of potential budget savings.Investment Strategies: Practical advice on staying long-term focused, rebalancing portfolios, and seizing opportunities during market volatility.…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Most Great Traders Failed First: These Key Rules Saved Them | Practical Lessons from Jack Schwager 49:14
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, Matt and Jack dive into the timeless wisdom of Jack Schwager, renowned author of the Market Wizards series. Drawing from two insightful interviews with Schwager, they explore key lessons from some of the greatest traders he’s interviewed, like Paul Tudor Jones and Steve Cohen, and unpack how these principles apply not only to trading but also to long-term investing and life. From risk management to overcoming failure, this episode blends Schwager’s expertise with Jack and Matt’s commentary, offering valuable takeaways for investors of all kinds. Main Topics Covered: Paul Tudor Jones’ approach to avoiding complacency by evaluating your portfolio as if you started it today.Steve Cohen’s strategy of cutting positions in half when uncertain to manage indecision effectively. The commonality of early failures among top traders and the resilience needed to learn from them. Debunking the myth that good money management can salvage a poor trading system—why edge is essential. Jack Schwager’s personal realization that he wasn’t suited for trading and how he found his strength in curating trading wisdom. The necessity of adapting trading strategies as markets evolve over time. How Schwager found discretionary trading less emotionally taxing than systematic approaches. Stanley Druckenmiller’s bold position sizing under George Soros’ influence and when to break the rules. Joel Greenblatt’s lesson on waiting for the right opportunity rather than forcing trades. Simplifying risk management with straightforward rules that anyone can follow. The value investor’s dilemma of buying more as prices drop versus cutting losses. How technology, like social media, has opened new trading strategies unavailable in the past. Position sizing as an extension of risk management, determined by acceptable loss levels.…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 75% of Investors Will Disagree with These Ideas: Evidence Says They are True 55:37
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we dive into the most controversial takesfrom our podcast guests. Inspired by a brilliant question from Meb Faber(thanks, Meb!), we’ve compiled insights from top financial minds to explorebeliefs that challenge conventional wisdom. From debunking dividend hype toreimagining the role of options and AI in investing, this episode is packedwith thought-provoking perspectives. Main Topics Covered: - Meb Faber challenges the obsession with dividends - Mike Green introduces Goodhart’s Law to investing,suggesting that once a metric is tracked, its effectiveness diminishes. - Jim Paulsen downplays the importance of monetary policyand valuation, emphasizing Main Street sentiment over Wall Street metrics. - Ben Carlson defends retail investors, claiming they’rebetter behaved than ever thanks to modern tools and advice. - Dan Rasmussen disputes the predictability of growth,asserting past financials reveal little about a company’s future. - Lindsay Bell and Shannon Saccocia advocate for learningthrough failure and a forward-looking, futurist mindset in investing. - Cem Karsan flips the script, arguing options are the trueunderlying asset, not derivatives. - Andrew Beer champions simplicity over complexity, citingthe success of straightforward hedge fund bets. - Jason Buck questions the existence of long-term alpha,favoring a diversified, rebalanced approach. - Ian Cassel challenges the low-turnover mantra, suggestinghigh turnover can work. - Scott McBride dismisses the need for catalysts in valueinvesting, focusing on valuation and governance. - Larry Swedroe critiques low-volatility strategies, arguingthey only shine when paired with value. - Kris Sidial highlights the importance of trading psyche, aview often dismissed by quant-driven peers. - Kai Wu predicts AI will enhance, not replace, financialjobs by handling rote tasks and freeing humans for creativity. - Doug Clinton forecasts a multi-trillion-dollar AI-poweredasset management industry within a decade. - Meb Faber (again!) flips the narrative on internationalinvesting, showing it’s a winner for 49 out of 50 countries.…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Great Moderation is Over: Here is What Comes Next | Practical Lessons from Liz Ann Sonders 52:43
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we break down key lessons from our conversation with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, exploring timeless investment principles and market dynamics that remain relevant regardless of current market conditions. From the end of the "Great Moderation" era to practical insights about market timing and portfolio management, Liz Ann's wisdom offers valuable perspective for investors of all levels. Main topics covered: • The transition from the "Great Moderation" era to what Liz Ann calls the "Temperamental Era" - understanding how inflation volatility and market dynamics are shifting • Why "rolling recessions" matter and how different sectors of the economy can experience downturns at different times • The limitations of valuation metrics as market timing tools and why they shouldn't be used for short-term decisions • How uncertainty is a constant in markets and why claiming "above average uncertainty" is often misleading • Important lessons from Martin Zweig about market timing versus trend following • The dangers of benchmark obsession and why comparing everything to the S&P 500 can lead to poor investment decisions • Why "all in" or "all out" market timing strategies rarely work and the importance of disciplined portfolio management • Practical advice for handling concentrated stock positions and the challenges of rebalancing during market gains…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Value Investing: Dead or Just Misunderstood? | Special Guest: Tobias Carlisle 1:07:59
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into the state of value investing with special guest Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds and author of multiple books on value investing. In this insightful conversation, they look at some of the most insightful clips from our guests including Cliff Asness, Aswath Damodaran, Kai Wu, Scott McBride, Larry Swedroe and Dan Rasmussen. They explore why value investing has struggled in recent years, examine value spreads, and discuss whether this time is truly different. Tobias offers a compelling case for why value investors might finally see their patience rewarded. Topics covered: • Value spreads and how they've evolved from historically consistent ranges to unprecedented widths in recent years • Why value doesn't necessarily need catalysts or multiple expansion to generate returns • The impact of intangible assets on value metrics and whether traditional valuation methods need updating • How indexing and passive investing have affected market dynamics and created potential opportunities • The underperformance of international stocks compared to US markets and whether that trend might reverse • Why the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks have defied mean reversion and if that can continue • How to maintain conviction as a value investor during extended periods of underperformance…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this compilation episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler bring you the most valuable insights from our interviews with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds and former head of Ray Dalio's research team at Bridgewater. 🔑 Key Topics Covered: Markets and Macroeconomic Reality Elliott dismantles the notion that markets can permanently detach from economic fundamentals, walking through how earnings, margins, and wage growth are all interconnected. He explains why claims of "this time it's different" rarely hold true over longer time horizons. The "Big or Small" Framework Learn the powerful yet simple framework Elliott used at Bridgewater to tackle complex problems, including how he assessed the 2008 housing crisis with the straightforward question: "This housing problem, big or small?" Income-Driven vs. Debt-Driven Economic Cycles Discover why the post-COVID economy behaved differently than many expected and why the Fed's rate hikes didn't crash the economy – Elliott explains the crucial difference between income-driven and debt-driven economic cycles. True Diversification Beyond 60/40 Elliott challenges conventional portfolio construction, explaining why the traditional 60/40 portfolio worked well only during specific economic conditions of the past 40 years and offers practical advice for genuine diversification in an uncertain future. Wage Growth and Inflation Understand the tight relationship between wage growth and inflation, and why inflation can't meaningfully decline while wage growth remains elevated without productivity improvements. The Fed's Decision-Making Process Elliott provides insight into why the Federal Reserve appears "behind the curve," explaining how its consensus-driven, backward-looking data approach creates policy delays by design. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just beginning your financial journey, Elliott's analytical frameworks and practical insights will help you think more clearly about markets, economic cycles, and portfolio construction in an increasingly complex financial landscape. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into unique perspectives on markets and investing through the lens of Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal's innovative research approaches. They explore: A fresh take on the 60/40 portfolio debate and why the death of this strategy may be greatly exaggerated How to interpret market breadth and retail sentiment through new indicators like inverse ETF volume Why Treasury actions may be just as important as Fed policy in today's marketsThe critical relationship between bond yields, supply/demand dynamics, and what it means for investors Practical insights on AI's impact on productivity and investment research Why certain market indicators that worked in the past may need updating for today's environment Warren and Fernando bring data-driven, original analysis to these topics, offering viewers a unique perspective that goes beyond traditional market commentary. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this episode provides actionable insights on current market dynamics and evolving investment frameworks. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Practical Lessons from Cem Karsan | Inside the Hidden Forces Moving Markets 1:04:09
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode of Excess Returns, Matt and Jack explore key lessons from one of our most popular guests, Cem Karsan. Through selected clips from multiple interviews, they unpack Karsan's unique insights on markets, investing, and risk management. The discussion covers critical concepts including: The fundamental importance of supply, demand, and liquidity in markets Why thinking probabilistically is essential for both investing and life How different time frames affect investment decisions and market dynamics The impact of options trading on market volatility A fascinating analysis of election year returns that challenges conventional wisdom Perspectives on retirement and viewing work as an extension of self Whether you're an active trader, long-term investor, or financial professional, this episode offers valuable frameworks for understanding markets and risk. Jack and Matt break down complex concepts into actionable insights, showing how Karsan's options trading background provides unique perspectives that can benefit investors of all types. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode, Matt and Jack break down key insights from our interview with market strategist Jim Paulsen. Paulsen offers unique perspectives on how markets have evolved over his 40-year career, from the days when investors checked bank signs for daily Dow quotes to today's high-speed algorithmic trading environment. Key topics covered: Why traditional market valuation metrics may need updating for the modern era A novel way to measure productivity through "profit per job" and its implications for market valuations Why Main Street confidence has remained low despite strong markets, and what this means for investors How the Federal Reserve's approach to communication and policy has transformed Why traditional recession indicators failed in the recent cycle The conversation features numerous "aha moments" where Paulsen reframes conventional market wisdom in enlightening new ways. His candid insights on what really drives markets and the limited role of policy makers challenge common assumptions about investing.The hosts also explore Paulsen's humble yet profound advice for investors: focus on not disrupting the core 90% of your portfolio while seeking opportunities for outperformance with the remaining 10%. This episode offers valuable perspective for both professional and retail investors trying to navigate today's complex market environment. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode, Jack and Matt dive deep into their conversation with Jason Buck about building truly robust investment portfolios that can withstand any market environment. Moving beyond the typical "stocks only go up" mentality, they explore critical concepts like: The real difference between offense and defense in portfolio construction Why treating your portfolio as savings rather than a get-rich-quick scheme is crucial Understanding real vs. nominal returns and why this distinction matters more than ever The dangers of U.S. market exceptionalism and what we can learn from other markets' struggles How to think about portfolio construction like building a championship sports team The critical concept of ergodicity and why averages can be deceiving Using colorful analogies from the Dallas Cowboys' infamous Herschel Walker trade to Dennis Rodman's overlooked impact on the Chicago Bulls, this episode breaks down complex investment concepts into actionable insights. Perfect for investors wanting to move beyond basic diversification and build portfolios ready for whatever the future holds. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this deep-dive conversation, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down key insights from their interview with Dr. Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street's most respected market strategists. The discussion explores how Yardeni's independent thinking and data-driven approach led him to correctly predict several major market developments in 2023-24, including the path of inflation and the absence of a widely-predicted recession. The hosts analyze Yardeni's unique framework for understanding market cycles, particularly how monetary, credit, and business cycles interact. They examine his explanation of why traditional recession indicators like yield curve inversions failed this time, and why focusing on labor market data proved more valuable. Yardeni's perspective on the Federal Reserve's evolution in handling financial crises offers crucial context for today's market environment. They discuss Yardeni's "Roaring 2020s" thesis, which predicts sustained economic growth driven by technological innovation and productivity gains. This optimistic outlook, first proposed at the start of the decade, has gained additional relevance with the emergence of AI and other transformative technologies. The conversation also delves into practical investment wisdom, including Yardeni's emphasis on quality dividend-growing stocks for long-term investors and the importance of maintaining healthy skepticism toward market consensus. Throughout the episode, Yardeni demonstrates how combining macroeconomic analysis with real-world observations leads to better investment decisions. Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting to learn about markets, this discussion offers valuable insights into how one of the industry's most successful strategists thinks about economics, market cycles, and long-term investing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss their fascinating interview with AQR founder Cliff Asness. They explore several key topics from their conversation, including: Cliff's humorous take on morning routines and why correlation doesn't equal causation when it comes to success habits The "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and why Cliff believes markets may be becoming less efficient over time, particularly evident in the dot-com bubble and 2019-2020 market events A thoughtful discussion on passive investing's impact on markets, including Cliff's perspective on what percentage of passive investing might be sustainable The importance of getting comfortable with investment discomfort, especially when following factor strategies that can experience long periods of underperformance An insightful discussion about the evolution of factor investing and whether factors need intuitive explanations to be valid Cliff's key advice for average investors: look at your portfolio as little as possible to avoid making emotional decisions The episode showcases Cliff's unique ability to combine deep quantitative insights with humor and practical wisdom, making complex investment concepts accessible and entertaining. Don't miss this conversation with one of the most influential figures in quantitative investing. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Practical Lessons from Warren Buffett | Timeless Wisdom from the Oracle of Omaha 54:28
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode of "Two Quants and a Financial Planner," we break down some of Warren Buffett's most important investing lessons and life wisdom through a series of interview clips and annual meeting footage. We start by discussing whether Buffett truly deserves the "GOAT" (Greatest of All Time) title in investing, drawing some interesting parallels to NFL running backs like Barry Sanders and comparing different investing legends' careers. We analyze Buffett's key principles including: His famous "circle of competence" concept and how it both helped and potentially limited him The evolution of his investing strategy from "cigar butt" value investing to quality businesses His views on margin of safety and how it varies based on business quality Why he believes his biggest mistakes were errors of omission rather than commission His advice about investing in yourself as your greatest asset The importance of having the right heroes while recognizing their imperfections What he would do if starting with $1 million today Why he advocates index investing for most people Throughout the discussion, we weave in our own perspectives and experiences, some NFL analogies (including some self-deprecating Jets fan moments), and even manage to work in references to Charles Bukowski poetry and Star Wars. We aim to make these timeless investing lessons both educational and entertaining. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Practical Lessons from Larry Swedroe | Why Evidence Beats Market Narratives 1:02:41
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode of "Two Quants and a Financial Planner," we explore key insights from our previous conversations with Larry Swedroe, one of investing's most evidence-based thinkers. Through a series of clips, we examine crucial investment principles including: Why all investment decisions should be grounded in evidence rather than narratives or speculation The challenge of market forecasting and why most predictions fail How market valuations have become increasingly bifurcated Understanding and surviving long periods of underperformance The importance of considering your unique risks when building a portfolio Why many investors are too conservative with illiquid investments A data-driven perspective on the future of value investing Whether you're a DIY investor or work with an advisor, this episode offers valuable lessons on building resilient portfolios based on academic evidence rather than market narratives. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Unforecast Episode: Making Our 2025 Market Calls to Show Why Forecasting is a Waste of Time 1:00:32
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedWe're back with our annual predictions episode, where we look back at our (surprisingly not terrible) 2024 market calls and make fresh predictions for 2025 (which will likely be very wrong). In this episode, we're embracing the humbling experience of market forecasting to prove to everyone (and ourselves) why market forecasting is a waste of time. You'll hear us: Review how Justin actually nailed the S&P 500 forecast for 2024 (we're still trying to figure out how) Break down why predicting markets is so ridiculously hard (but we keep doing it anyway) Share our thoughts on where inflation and Fed policy might be headed Make our predictions for 2025 - from S&P targets to potential corrections Discuss what might drive markets in 2025, including M&A activity, IPOs, and buybacks We keep it real about our hits and misses, share some laughs about our forecasting methods (including Matt's Van Halen-inspired prediction system), and try to offer some useful insights along the way. If you enjoy discussions about markets that don't take themselves too seriously while still diving into the important stuff, this episode is for you. Join us as we continue our annual tradition of probably being wrong about everything - but having fun doing it! SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Do You Really Need International Diversification? 10 Top Investors Debate 57:06
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode of "Two Quants and a Financial Planner," we explore one of investing's most debated topics: international diversification. Through clips from 10 different investing experts, we examine whether U.S. investors truly need international exposure in their portfolios. Key topics include: What actually constitutes "international exposure" in today's interconnected markets Why U.S. stocks have dominated for so long and whether this trend can continue The role of currency exposure in international investing How passive investing flows affect international markets Different perspectives on optimal international allocation strategies Featuring insights from renowned investors and experts including Corey Hoffstein, Meb Faber, Dan Rasmussen, Larry Swedroe, Cullen Roche, Dan Villalon, Rick Ferri, Jason Buck, Mike Green, and Andy Constan, this episode offers a nuanced look at the complexities of global investing and helps viewers understand the various approaches to international diversification. Whether you're wondering if you should invest internationally or questioning your current allocation, this discussion provides valuable perspectives to help inform your investment decisions. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Practical Lessons from Andy Constan | Bridgewater, Macro Pillars and Navigating Deleveragings 1:00:54
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedJoin Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand as they break down some of the most insightful frameworks from our interviews with macro thinker Andy Constan. Drawing from multiple conversations with Andy, they explore: Andy's experience at Bridgewater Associates and their fascinating approach to systematic investing The four pillars of macro analysis that help make sense of complex market environments A practical framework for evaluating market deleveraging events Essential lessons about personal portfolio management and the importance of having clear financial goals The realities of working in the financial industry and managing concentrated stock positions Andy's ability to break down complex topics into simple, actionable frameworks has made him one of the most valuable voices in macro investing. Whether you're a professional investor or managing your personal portfolio, this episode offers important insights into how to think about markets and risk in a systematic way. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 10 Great Investors Share Their Most Important Lesson 58:06
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedWe ask one question at the end of each of our episodes: Based on your experience in markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would it be? In this episode, we discuss our favorite answers from our guests in 2024. Featuring insights from: Jim Paulsen on understanding your true impact as an investor Cliff Asness on the importance of looking at your portfolio less frequently Aswath Damodaran on preserving and growing wealth vs. chasing returns Jared Dillian on avoiding catastrophic losses Ian Cassel on the value of doing your own work Bob Elliott on the importance of humility Ed Yardeni on fading the consensus Eric Crittenden on mastering the basics before pursuing complexity Andrew Beer on the power of long-term thinking Kris Sidial on balancing optimism with preparedness Learn why the fundamentals of investing often matter more than complex strategies, how to avoid common behavioral pitfalls, and why getting the basics right can put you ahead of 90% of investors. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just starting your investment journey, these practical insights will help you build a more resilient investment strategy. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we explore the timeless investing wisdom of Ben Carlson. We break down several crucial investing concepts, including why investors shouldn't blindly follow billionaires' market moves, the importance of finding an investment strategy you can stick with, and why the market rarely operates at extremes despite what headlines might suggest. We examine why even successful professionals can struggle with overconfidence in investing, the challenges of benchmarking against the S&P 500, and why persistence of outperformance is so difficult to achieve. Through the discussion, we highlight how Ben's straightforward approach to complex investing topics helps investors avoid common pitfalls and maintain realistic expectations. Key Topics: Why following billionaire investors can be misleading The importance of appropriate benchmarking How to handle periods of underperformance Why market extremes are rarer than we think The challenge of overconfidence in investing Finding an investment strategy you can stick with SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 What the Rise of Passive Investing Means for Your Portfolio | Special Guest: Dave Nadig 1:04:16
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive deep into one of the most debated topics in modern finance with special guest Dave Nadig. This episode explores how passive investing has transformed markets, featuring insights from leading experts including Mike Green, Aswath Damodaran, Rick Ferri, Rob Arnott, and Cliff Asness. Key discussions: Why active investing's poor performance led to passive's rise How index fund flows might affect market dynamics The difference between stocks in and out of major indices Whether passive investing could potentially destabilize markets What this means for individual investors Whether you're a market professional or retail investor, this conversation offers crucial insights into how passive investing is reshaping financial markets and what it means for your portfolio. Featured Guests' Clips: Aswath Damodaran on active management's track record Mike Green on passive investing mechanics Rick Ferri with the counterargument Rob Arnott on index inclusion effects Cem Karsan on why active may rise again Cliff Asness offering a balanced perspective SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 The Six Most Controversial Takes from Excess Returns in 2024 57:21
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, Jack and Matt dive into some of the most controversial takes we've heard on Excess Returns in 2024. From Aswath Damodaran's spicy thoughts on the Berkshire annual meeting (spoiler: he's not a fan) to Cem Karsan's mind-bending perspective on options being the "dog" rather than the "tail," we're breaking down six of the hottest takes from 2024. We explore everything from Meb Faber challenging the sacred cow of dividend investing to groundbreaking research suggesting that maybe we don't need intuitive explanations for what works in the market. Plus, we bring in a special guest to help us mere mortals understand the complex world of options. As two self-proclaimed "non-controversial" guys, we try to find the nuance in these polarizing perspectives. Whether you're a quant, a value investor, or just someone interested in different ways of thinking about markets, there's something here for everyone. And yes, we even manage to work in references to everything from Little Rascals to My Fair Lady (Matt's brain works in mysterious ways). Join us for an episode that proves even "wildly controversial" Jack Forehand can stir things up once in a while! 😉 SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode, we look at the biggest lessons we have learned from Cullen Roche, one of our most frequent and insightful guests. We cover: "All Duration Investing" - Cullen's framework for matching investments to specific time horizons The Fed as Chuck Norris - Why the threat of Fed action can be more powerful than the action itself QE vs Fiscal Stimulus - Understanding why QE wasn't inflationary, but COVID stimulus was International Diversification - Making the case for looking beyond U.S. markets The Financial System's Plumbing - Breaking down complex topics like Fed operations and bank failures Automated Fed Policy - Could we remove human judgment from monetary policy? Saving vs Investing - A fresh perspective on building wealth through human capital Multi-generational Planning - How having kids changes your investment timeline Whether you're an investor building a portfolio or someone wanting to understand how the financial system actually works, this conversation delivers clear insights from one of finance's most practical thinkers. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Practical Lessons from Tobias Carlisle | Value Investing, Buffett and the Importance of Survival 53:18
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we sit down for a deep dive into lessons from value investor Tobias Carlisle, exploring several key insights from our conversations with him over the years. In this Halloween-themed episode (complete with plenty of Reese's cups), we break down Toby's perspectives on what makes an ideal business, the critical importance of survival in investing, portfolio concentration vs diversification, and whether today's tech giants can maintain their dominance. We cover how See's Candy exemplifies the theoretical perfect business model, why survival should be every investor's first priority, and the delicate balance between running concentrated portfolios that maximize returns versus diversified ones that investors can actually stick with through tough times. We also dig into the age-old debate of pure value versus quality value investing, with Toby sharing his data-driven insights on which approach truly works best. We also explore the importance of writing down your investment thesis at the time you make it. As Toby explains, this simple practice helps prevent revisionist history and allows you to learn from both your successes and mistakes. Throughout the episode, we weave in our own experiences and perspectives while maintaining the conversational, occasionally sugar-fueled style our listeners have come to expect. Whether you're a value investor, a financial planner, or just someone interested in improving your investment process, there are valuable takeaways here for everyone. Join us for this candid discussion about what really matters in investing, sprinkled with just the right amount of Halloween candy references and questionable lighting setups. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Practical Lessons from Meb Faber | Dividends, Trend Following and a Timeless Asset Allocation 48:29
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we dive into our conversations with Meb Faber, analyzing some of his most interesting takes on investing and wealth management. We explore several clips from our interviews where Meb shares perspectives that often challenge conventional wisdom, including his thoughts on dividend investing, trend following, and the Federal Reserve. We discuss: - The limitations of dividend-focused investing strategies - Asset allocation insights from the Talmud - A different perspective on the Fed's recent performance - Meb's view on wealth as a means to freedom - The case for significant trend following allocation in portfolios - The question Meb would ask Jack Bogle about market valuations SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the insights we've gained from our conversations with investing legend Rob Arnott. We explore Rob's unique perspectives on identifying market bubbles, the challenges facing value investors in today's market, and how the rise of passive investing is reshaping market dynamics. We break down Rob's thoughts on the power of narratives in investing, challenge common assumptions about interest rates and value/growth performance, and discuss the potential impact of AI on the financial industry. Throughout the episode, we share our own experiences and interpretations, making these complex topics accessible and relevant for investors at all levels. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode, we dive deep into the world of trend following with legendary trader Jerry Parker. We explore key insights from our previous interviews with Jerry on Excess Returns, discussing his experiences as one of the original Turtle Traders and how his approach has evolved over time. We cover several important topics, including: - The challenges of sticking to a trading system, even when you're trained to follow it. - Jerry's goals for his portfolio and how they've shifted from growth to preservation as he's become successful. - The unique return profile of trend following strategies and why they can be difficult for investors to stick with. - How Jerry has adapted his strategy over time, moving from shorter-term to longer-term trend following. - The importance of allowing winning positions to run and Jerry's unconventional approach to position sizing. - The difficulties in evaluating a trading system and the dangers of making changes based on individual trades. - Jerry's thoughts on retirement and why he plans to continue trading for as long as possible. Throughout the episode, we relate Jerry's experiences to our own work in investing and financial planning. We discuss the parallels between trend following and other investment strategies, highlighting the universal challenges of sticking to a system and evolving it appropriately over time. We also explore broader themes like the nature of retirement in today's world and how to think about saving and investing for the future. This conversation with Jerry Parker offers valuable insights for traders, investors, and anyone interested in the psychology of successful long-term investing. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dig into the biggest lessons we learned from investing legend Guy Spier. Drawing from our extensive interview with Guy, we explore key insights that can benefit investors at all levels. We discuss: - The importance of learning from mistakes early in your career - Aligning your inner and outer self for authenticity and success - The power of learning in public and putting yourself out there - Defining and expanding your circle of competence - Understanding ergodicity and its implications for investing - The critical importance of having the right investors on board - Being kind to yourself as an investor Throughout the episode, we share personal anecdotes, debate ideas, and break down complex concepts into actionable insights. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this discussion offers valuable perspectives on improving your investment approach and mindset. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the investing wisdom of Chris Davis, exploring eight valuable lessons from our interview with this renowned investor. We break down Chris's insights on behavioral finance, the power of inversion in decision-making, the challenges of holding winning positions, and the pitfalls of blindly imitating successful strategies. We discuss Chris's unique perspective on sector concentration and risk, his thoughts on the longevity of today's tech giants, and the importance of viewing stocks as businesses rather than just trading vehicles. We also explore Chris's experiences as a board member and what makes an effective corporate board. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Practical Lessons from Michael Mauboussin 1:01:49
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the investing wisdom of Michael Mauboussin, one of the most respected thinkers in finance. We revisit our interview with Michael and distill 10 key lessons that are still incredibly relevant for investors today. We explore crucial concepts like: The difference between investing and speculating Understanding expectations investing Why fundamentals still matter, even in today's market The paradox of skill in investing How to properly use multiples in valuation The challenges of active management in an increasingly passive world The usefulness (and limitations) of market forecasts The importance of base rates in decision making We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Quality and Low Volatility: The Factors That Get No Respect 1:00:10
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the world of quality and low volatility factors in investing. We explore how these factors work, their academic foundations, and their practical applications in portfolio construction. We discuss the definitions of quality and low volatility, examining how they're measured and why they can be valuable additions to investment strategies. We also look at the behavioral aspects that make these factors effective, particularly in helping investors stick to their long-term plans. Using real-world examples, we analyze several ETFs that employ quality and low volatility strategies, demonstrating how to use tools like Validea to understand what's really going on under the hood of these funds. We examine sector exposures, factor tilts, and how these ETFs might fit into broader portfolio strategies. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Practical Lessons from Aswath Damodaran 1:03:19
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we dive into key lessons from our recent Excess Returns interview with valuation expert Aswath Damodaran. We unpack Damodaran's insights on: Why dogma in investing can be dangerous The evolving landscape of active vs passive investing Challenges facing factor investing The critical role of storytelling in valuation How AI and 'personal bots' might reshape investing careers Focusing on wealth preservation and growth over get-rich-quick schemes We offer our own perspectives on Damodaran's thought-provoking ideas and discuss how they apply to today's investing environment. Whether you're a professional or individual investor, our discussion provides valuable food for thought on the future of valuation, investing strategies, and financial markets. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
In this episode, we tackle a question that is on many investor's minds: Is value investing dead? We explore various arguments for and against value investing's continued relevance in today's market. We discuss: The impact of low interest rates and Fed policy on value investing Whether too many investors have adopted value strategies How narrative-driven markets affect value investing The challenges value faces in a tech-dominated market The role of big data and its effect on traditional value metrics Whether value investing is betting against technological progress We aim to provide a balanced view, acknowledging the arguments on both sides. While we don't come to a definitive conclusion, we offer insights on how investors might think about value in their portfolios going forward. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Our Guests Gave Us 119 of Their Most Important Investing Lessons: We Give You Our Favorite 12 1:11:43
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedWe ask all our guests on Excess Returns one closing question: If you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be? In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we compile and discuss the most impactful answers we have received to it. We break down valuable insights on investing and financial planning from experts like Michael Mauboussin, Rick Ferri, Bob Elliott, Andy Constan, Ben Inker, Meb Faber, and more. We cover a range of crucial topics, including: Michael Mauboussin: The importance of using base rates in decision making Rick Ferri: Why simpler investment strategies often work best Bob Elliott: How true diversification goes beyond just stocks and bonds Andy Constan: Why most investors don't actually have an edge Ben Inker: Understand who's on the other side of your trades and why they should give you a return Ehren Stanhope: The importance of position sizing and risk management Adam Butler: The future may be very different than the past Meb Faber: The benefits of being a long-term "Rip Van Winkle" investor Ben Carlson and Michael Batnick: Why there's no single perfect portfolio for everyone Chris Davis: Remembering that stocks represent ownership in real businesses Mike Green and Danial Crosby: Keeping investing in perspective with what truly matters in life Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this episode distills years of wisdom into actionable lessons to improve your financial decision making. We hope you enjoy this highlight reel of some of our favorite guest insights! We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 10 Common Misconceptions About Factor Investing 1:02:39
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we explore common misconceptions about factor investing. We discuss why factors aren't less risky than the market, the challenges of diversification, and why adding more factors isn't always beneficial. We emphasize the importance of long-term perspectives when evaluating factor performance and the need for strategies to evolve with changing markets. We also touch on the emotional aspects of factor investing, the differences between academic studies and real-world implementation, and emerging ideas about factor design. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner
1 Inside the Recent Market Volatility | What You Need to Know to Navigate It 59:54
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn this episode, we dive into recent market volatility and its implications for investors. We examine several intriguing charts highlighting unusual market behavior, including significant VIX spikes and their historical context. We discuss the importance of understanding market mechanics while maintaining a long-term perspective. Throughout our conversation, we emphasize key lessons for navigating turbulent markets: the value of education over ignorance, the danger of making impulsive changes, and the importance of aligning investment strategies with personal convictions. We explore how fundamentals continue to drive long-term market performance and why maintaining conviction in your investment approach is crucial during volatile periods. Finally, we stress the importance of understanding the potential downsides of your investment strategy and how they relate to your current life stage, reminding listeners that while market behavior may seem chaotic in the short term, a well-thought-out, long-term approach remains the best path to financial success. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/…
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