E128: US-Europe Relations, How Japan Can Strengthen The Yen, and Predicting AI’s Growth Effects w/ Noah Smith

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith analyze America's European withdrawal, China's selective globalization strategy, and tempers expectations about AI's economic impact while considering GDP measurement challenges.

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/

I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

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X / TWITTER:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

• U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe.
• China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries.
• India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work.
• AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic.
• Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen.
• AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures.