“An invasion of Taiwan is uncomfortably likely, potentially catastrophic, and we can help avoid it.” by JoelMcGuire

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10d ago 1:01:42

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Formosa: Fulcrum of the Future?

An invasion of Taiwan is uncomfortably likely and potentially catastrophic. We should research better ways to avoid it.

TLDR: I forecast that an invasion of Taiwan increases all the anthropogenic risks by ~1.5% (percentage points) of a catastrophe killing 10% or more of the population by 2100 (nuclear risk by 0.9%, AI + Biorisk by 0.6%). This would imply it constitutes a sizable share of the total catastrophic risk burden expected over the rest of this century by skilled and knowledgeable forecasters (8% of the total risk of 20% according to domain experts and 17% of the total risk of 9% according to superforecasters).

I think this means that we should research ways to cost-effectively decrease the likelihood that China invades Taiwan. This could mean exploring the prospect of advocating that Taiwan increase its deterrence by investing in cheap but lethal weapons platforms [...]

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Outline:

(00:13) Formosa: Fulcrum of the Future?

(02:04) Part 0: Background

(03:44) Part 1: Invasion -- uncomfortably possible.

(08:33) Part 2: Why an invasion would be bad

(10:27) 2.1 War and nuclear war

(19:20) 2.2. The end of cooperation: AI and Bio-risk

(22:44) 2.3 Appeasement or capitulation and the end of the liberal-led order: Value risk

(26:04) Part 3: How to prevent a war

(29:39) 3.1. Diplomacy: speaking softly

(31:21) 3.2. Deterrence: carrying a big stick

(34:16) Toy model of deterrence

(37:58) Toy cost-effectiveness of deterrence

(41:13) How to cost-effectively increase deterrence

(43:30) Risks of a deterrence strategy

(44:12) 3.3. What can be done?

(44:42) How tractable is it to increase deterrence?

(45:43) A theory of change for philanthropy increasing Taiwan's military deterrence

(45:56) en-US-AvaMultilingualNeural__ Flow chart showing policy influence between think tanks and Taiwan security outcomes.

(48:55) 4. Conclusion and further work

(50:53) With more time

(52:00) Bonus thoughts

(52:09) 1. Reminder: a catastrophe killing 10% or more of humanity is pretty unprecedented

(53:06) 2. Where's the Effective Altruist think tank for preventing global conflict?

(54:11) 3. Does forecasting risks based on scenarios change our view on the likelihood of catastrophe?

The original text contained 16 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
June 15th, 2025

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/an-invasion-of-taiwan-is-uncomfortably-likely-potentially

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

Military map showing missile ranges and naval ports around Taiwan Strait.

Large cargo ship stranded on beach with massive crane apparatus

Flow chart showing policy influence between think tanks and Taiwan security outcomes.

Line graph showing Taiwan's military spending from 1976 to 2023.

Black and white close-up of intense eyes beneath dark cap.

Timeline showing Xi's terms, National Congresses, and China's modernization goals through 2049.

A world map visualization showing missile trajectories and nuclear detonations.

Graph showing relationship between Taiwan defense investment and invasion probability reduction

Military comparison table showing ground forces between PRC and Taiwan Strait region.

Graph showing predicted probability of China invading Taiwan through 2035, reaching 25-50%.

Bar graph showing ADZ violations increasing from 2020 to 2024.

Line graph showing Taiwan's military spending as GDP percentage, 1976-2023.

Flow diagram showing risk reduction stages between USA-China international cooperation.

Graph showing Taiwanese attitudes towards political integration with PRC from 1995-2020. The chart tracks three positions: independence, status quo, and unification, with status quo maintaining the highest support throughout the period.

Map showing suitable beach landing locations along Taiwan's coast from The Economist The map highlights potential landing spots marked in red (most suitable) and pink (medium suitable) around Taiwan's coastline, with two key locations labeled as Jinshan South and Jialutang. It shows the Taiwan Strait separating mainland China and Taiwan, with surrounding waters including the East China Sea and Philippine Sea.

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