RenMac Off-Script: Inaugural Excoriation

RenMac

#Business #Trading #News #Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick #Jeff deGraaf #Neil Dutta #Stephen Pavlick

52:22

Season 3 of the smash hit FX/Hulu show “The Bear” roared to life just days ago, but Will Poulter (the actor who plays fan-favorite Luca) and 2014 F&W Best New Chef Dave Beran had been prepping for weeks. Poulter — like his co-star Jeremy Allen White — staged with Beran at his Santa Monica restaurant Pasjoli to learn how to accurately portray a professional chef onscreen. The lessons went so well, Beran says he’d hire Poulter as a cook — even despite a messy mishap with a pastry bag. The two dished all about getting kitchen culture right on and offscreen, what it takes to be at the top of your craft, and the pure magic of a great restaurant service. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices…

about a year ago 31:52

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RenMac discusses the busy week in Washinton, a reminder that the cameras are always on, the importance of oil to growth and inflation, executive order perspective, new highs in SPX and STOXX 600, market internals and the importance of 10yr yields.

242 episodes

RenMac Off-Script: Inaugural Excoriation

RenMac

32 subscribers

published about a year ago

MP3•Episode home

242 episodes

#Business #Trading #News #Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick #Jeff deGraaf #Neil Dutta #Stephen Pavlick

All episodes

1
RenMac Off-Script: TACO: Tariffs Are Constitutional or Not 32:36

3 days ago32:36

32:36

RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: More to Rates than U.S. Fiscal 37:12

10 days ago37:12

37:12

RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new high, Trump’s tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo? 36:13

17 days ago36:13

36:13

RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs Celtics

1
RenMac Off-Script: Holy Smokes 38:09

24 days ago38:09

38:09

RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a Knickerbocker

1
RenMac Off-Script: Strategic Uncertainty 42:09

4 weeks ago42:09

42:09

RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mail bag, and Jeff’s long-shot Derby play.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Clock Ticking on Trade 28:15

5 weeks ago28:15

28:15

RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week’s employment data.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: “You're Fired”? 35:10

6 weeks ago35:10

35:10

RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against the U.S. and why the dollar is an important window into the soul of a nation, plus a special Good Friday Mail-bag.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Bond Market Takes Hostages 50:43

7 weeks ago50:43

50:43

RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China’s alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession outlook, tariff miscalculation, rising correlations, and the implications of the 10th best single day on the S&P in 100-years.

1
RenMac Off-Script: Obliteration Day 49:35

8 weeks ago49:35

49:35

RenMac discusses the difference between trade deficits and tariffs, the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, today’s payroll numbers, how the Fed is thinking about rates, the spike in capitulation measures, and having a mind-set of “what can go right”.

1
RenMac Off-Script: Bad News Priced 36:50

9 weeks ago36:50

36:50

RenMac discusses the upcoming “Liberation Day,” why much of the bad news might already be priced in, the strike price on the respective Trump and Fed put, and how economic conditions were already slowing before Trump was sworn into office, and AI’s mailbag gone wrong.

1
RenMac Off-Script: Tariffied 40:30

10 weeks ago40:30

40:30

RenMac unpacks the FOMC meeting, Trump’s conversation with Putin, the deteriorating transportation names, tariff uncertainty, the likelihood of a downside economic surprise in coming months, Schumer’s unwinnable position and how moving averages can help generate alpha.

1
RenMac Off-Script: Eggs-cellent 41:02

11 weeks ago41:02

41:02

RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff strategy (or lack thereof), why we’re not playing this as a bear-market and this week’s mailbag regarding market tops.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: A Weak Outlook Trump's Making Worse 33:22

12 weeks ago33:22

33:22

RenMac dissects the payrolls, the latest tariff moves, the importance of credit indications and the complete unwind of beta as well as this weeks mail-bag.

1
RenMac Off-Script: Policy Uncertainty 26:24

13 weeks ago26:24

26:24

Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022. Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.

1
RenMac Off-Script: Data and Industrials 30:50

14 weeks ago30:50

30:50

RenMac team discusses the potential for government shutdown and the calculus from Ds, the softening data and the risks created by the Fed, the deterioration in Industrials, the soft seasonality with cyclicals, China and this week’s RenMac mailbag.

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Valentine VAT 34:35

15 weeks ago34:35

34:35

RenMac crew discusses the difference between a VAT and tariff, this week’s inflation data, our China/HK call, the notable deterioration in internal S&P trends, D’s leverage on DOGE, and this week’s mail-bag: gold.

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Thin Kids At Fat Camp 35:20

16 weeks ago35:20

35:20

RenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market’s message and economic data, Trump’s “Flood the Zone” strategy, what policy uncertainty means for markets, Jeff’s provincial pronunciation and the latest question from RenMac’s Mail-Bag

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Tick-Tock Tariffs 35:40

17 weeks ago35:40

35:40

RenMac opines on tariffs and their economic impact, bar fights and political strategy, unpacking Jevon’s paradox, DeepSeek’s potential genome-sequencing moment for AI, handicapping this week’s confirmations, Fed’s outlook on inflation, the ongoing challenges in semiconductors, and RenMac’s mail-bag.

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Inaugural Excoriation 31:52

18 weeks ago31:52

31:52

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Sensation 21:21

20 weeks ago21:21

21:21

RenMac discusses the renewed improvement in consumer price inflation, the term premium as a driver of bond yields, the outperformance of financials and why value should continue to work in Q1, and a quick recap of Trump’s cabinet picks that are testifying on the Hill.

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Yields Take Their Toll 17:13

20 weeks ago17:13

17:13

RenMac discusses why the latest jobs number validates the Fed’s recent pivot and why this risks a passive policy tightening, the impact of higher yields on stocks, and President-Elect Trump’s views on territorial control over Greenland.

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Uninspiring-ISMs 27:34

21 weeks ago27:34

27:34

Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson’s speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 and implications for 2025.

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump or Slump 23:46

22 weeks ago23:46

23:46

RenMac discusses Speaker Johnson's future, the contrast in conference board confidence now versus 2016, lingering continuing clams data, the bounce in equities, the opportunities in Hong Kong and China and next week's data.

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Jay Sees Ghost of Christmas Past 25:19

23 weeks ago25:19

25:19

RenMac discusses Musk’s government shutdown, the politics behind Powell’s statement, Beta’s vulnerability, the decaying wall-of-worry and the potential for a currency crisis.

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Bond Bull in a China Shop? 24:33

24 weeks ago24:33

24:33

RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why the data may be trending better for bonds than the consensus, how equity factors are set-up, the power vacuum in Syria, what’s behind Trump’s inauguration invite of Xi’s and Chinese equities.

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Pardon the Payrolls 24:38

25 weeks ago24:38

24:38

RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and precedents.

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Overconfident? 26:11

26 weeks ago26:11

26:11

RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump’s initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and sentiment are likely to play out in equities and the vulnerability created by the weak Russian Ruble.

RenMac

1
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott Bessent - (originally produced Feb 2021) 42:26

27 weeks ago42:26

42:26

In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.…

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Treasury Apprentice 19:11

27 weeks ago19:11

19:11

RenMac discusses: Latest developments with Trump appointments The horserace for Treasury secretary Ongoing weakness in labor demand Low bulls in Treasuries are bullish Impact of political appointments on specific sectors

RenMac

1
RenMac Off-Script: Solid but Cooling 31:04

28 weeks ago31:04