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Content provided by Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick, Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, and Stephen Pavlick. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick, Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, and Stephen Pavlick or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.
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RenMac Off-Script: The Fed's Folly
Manage episode 432117283 series 2531218
Content provided by Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick, Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, and Stephen Pavlick. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick, Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, and Stephen Pavlick or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.
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250 episodes
Manage episode 432117283 series 2531218
Content provided by Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick, Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, and Stephen Pavlick. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick, Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, and Stephen Pavlick or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.
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250 episodes
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RenMac

1 RenMac Off-Script: Don't Fist Fight the Fed 42:07
42:07
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RenMac talks tariffs and who really bears the burden, Trump’s Fed site-visit and true objective, the narrow market excuse and why it’s more bearish propaganda than insightful utility, and the negative global liquidity story imbedded in JGB normalization and the Yen carry trade unwind.
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RenMac

RenMac discusses the Fed Chair race and Trump’s strategy, NVDA-led chip diplomacy with China and crypto legislation, markets ignoring rising shutdown risks, seasonal patterns shifting the beta/momentum trade, and the unusual dynamic of rising rates and falling currencies.
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RenMac

RenMac’s crew dives into recent tariff announcements, the unpriced probability of a U.S. Govt shutdown in October, Momentum vs Beta, Fed’s stance on interest rates and surface level employment data, Bitcoin’s breakout and vacationing in Medellin in the summer.
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RenMac

1 RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, PMIs & Poolside Predictions 26:52
26:52
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RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.…
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RenMac

1 RenMac Off-Script: The Apprentice: Fed Edition 35:44
35:44
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RenMac discusses the case to be made for the next Fed chair, the latest on crude oil, the Middle East, July’s seasonal strength, the perceived disconnect between markets and the economy and the reality of that perception, along with a suggested golf handicap adjustment.
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RenMac

1 RenMac Off-Script: Is Tehran About to Eat a TACO? 35:47
35:47
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RenMac walks through this week’s Fed decision, Iran’s exit ramp, weakness in housing, the Byrd Bath, RMs 20% allocation to commodities, the overbought condition in oil and the momentum in financials.
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RenMac

RenMac Discusses TDS (Tariff Derangement Syndrome) giving way to IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), message out of real-rates, the employment picture, trajectory of the Fed, breakout in precious metals and Tuesday’s Senate bill on stablecoin.
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RenMac

1 RenMac Off-Script: Caught in a Bad Bromance 25:36
25:36
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RenMac discusses the latest payroll print and why the Fed may use it to stay on the sidelines, the improvement in small-cap performance, the call between Xi and Trump, and the implications of the fallout between Musk and Trump.
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RenMac

1 RenMac Off-Script: TACO: Tariffs Are Constitutional or Not 32:36
32:36
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RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”
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RenMac

1 RenMac Off-Script Podcast: More to Rates than U.S. Fiscal 37:12
37:12
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RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new high, Trump’s tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.
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RenMac

1 RenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo? 36:13
36:13
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RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs Celtics
RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a Knickerbocker
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RenMac

RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mail bag, and Jeff’s long-shot Derby play.…
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RenMac

RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week’s employment data.…
RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against the U.S. and why the dollar is an important window into the soul of a nation, plus a special Good Friday Mail-bag.…
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